深圳市新型冠状病毒肺炎社区传播风险快速评估方法研究

目的 探索基于街道的新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情社区传播风险评估方法,提升政府的公共卫生管理水平。方法 采用综合评分法,整合深圳报告的新冠肺炎确诊病例的关键信息,建立新冠肺炎社区传播风险快速评估方法。结果 截至2020年2月29日,深圳市累计报告新冠肺炎确诊病例417例,其中感染来源为湖北武汉地区有224例(53.7%),湖北省其他地区80例(19.2%),其他省市38例(9.1%),深圳市内感染75例(18.0%)。选取“14 d内街道的新冠肺炎病例数(X₁)”、“14 d内新冠肺炎病例数的明确感染来源占比(X₂)”及“14 d内街道内发生新冠肺炎的社区占比(X₃)”作为新冠肺炎社区传播风险快速评估方法的关键指标,建立评价方程Y=0.4X₁+0.5X₂+0.1X₃。将前期已报告的392例具有明确现住址的新冠肺炎确诊病例回代计算,高风险街道15个(20.2%),中风险街道25个(33.8%),低风险街道共34个(50.0%)。福田区、南山区、龙华区、龙岗区的高、中风险街道的比例均超过60%。结论 新冠肺炎社区传播风险快速评估方法简易有效,有助于疫情的精准防控。

Study on a method of rapid risk assessment on community spread of COVID-19

Objective To explore a method of risk assessment on community spread of street-based COVID-19 epidemic so as to improve the public health management level of the government.Methods Comprehensive scoring methods were used to integrate key information about COVID-19 confirmed cases reported in Shenzhen,and then a method of rapid risk assessment on COVID-19 community spread was established.Results As of February 29,2020,a total of 417 COVID-19 confirmed cases were accumulatively reported in Shenzhen City,of which there were 224(53.7%)cases caused by Wuhan,Hubei as the source of infection,80(19.2%)cases caused by other regions of Hubei Province,38(9.1%)cases caused by other provinces and cities,and 75(18.0%)cases infected within Shenzhen City.The key indicators of the method of rapid risk assessment on COVID-19 community spread were selected,including the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases within 14 days(X₁),the proportion of COVID-19 cases with clear source of infection within 14 days(X₂)and the proportion of communities with COVID-19 occurring in the streets within 14 days(X₃),and the evaluation equation was Y=0.4 X₁+0.5 X₂+0.1 X₃.392 previously-reported COVID-19 confirmed cases with definite present address were checked back,revealing there were 15(20.2%)high-risk streets,25(33.8%)medium-risk streets and 34(50.0%)low-risk streets.The proportions of high-risk and medium-risk streets in Futian District,Nanshan District,Longhua District,and Longgang District were all more than 60%.Conclusions The method of rapid risk assessment on COVID-19 community spread is simple and effective,and it is conducive to the implementation of precise prevention and control of COVID-19.