进展期胃癌SOX方案新辅助化疗疗效的列线图预测模型建立和分析应俊 游清 张剑

目的 探讨进展期胃癌SOX方案新辅助化疗（Neoadjuvant chemotherapy，NAT）疗效以及影响疗效的相关危险因素。方法 回顾性分析本院2010年2月-2016年4月收治的128例接受SOX方案新辅助化疗的进展期胃癌患者（NAT组），以及128例初次手术未接受NAT治疗的患者（对照组）。通过Cox回归构建影响总生存期(Overall survival,OS)的风险模型，绘制预测化疗效果的列线图。结果 年龄、肿瘤大小、肿瘤部位、CEA、CA199、临床T分期(clinical T stage，cT) 和临床N分期(clinical N stage，cN)是影响预后的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。成功构建列线图预测模型且符合率良好，预测模型的预测结果与实际情况拟合较好。

Establishment and analysis of nomogram prediction model of neoadjuvant chemotherapy efficacy of SOX regimen in advanced gastric cancer

Objective To investigate the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAT) of SOX regimen in advanced gastric cancer and related risk factors that affect the efficacy.Methods A retrospective analysis of 128 cases of neoadjuvant chemotherapy of SOX regimen admitted to our hospital from February 2010 to April 2016 (NAT group), and 128 cases of patients who did not undergo NAT during the initial operation Treated patients (control group). Construct a risk model that affects overall survival through Cox regression and draw a nomogram to predict the effect of chemotherapy.Results Age, tumor size, tumor location, CEA, CA199, cT, and cN were independent risk factors affecting prognosis (P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model is successfully constructed, and the coincidence rate is good, and the prediction results of the prediction model fit the actual situation well.Conclusion SOX neoadjuvant chemotherapy can improve the condition of patients with advanced gastric cancer. Age, tumor size, tumor location, CEA, CA199, cT, and cN are risk factors that affect the effect of chemotherapy and the patient''s OS.