| 鄂尔多斯荒漠草原动物鼠疫流行与降水量的关系和预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 李仲来,张万荣.鄂尔多斯荒漠草原动物鼠疫流行与降水量的关系和预报[J].中国地方病防治杂志,1997,12(5):261-263. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李仲来 张万荣 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]北京师范大学数学系 [2]伊克昭盟地方病防治站 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(39570638) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文讨论鄂尔多斯荒漠草源１９６７－１９９６年动物鼠疫流行动态与降水资料的关系。通过比较推断，在６－８月的降水量连续两年达到２１０ｍｍ后的１－２年，动物鼠疫可能流行。对降水资料用方差分析作准周期分析，得到降水周期为１１年和８年。预报结果：到２００２年或２００３年左右，动物鼠疫可能发生流行。
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| 关 键 词： | 沙鼠 鼠疫 降水 鄂尔多斯 荒漠草原 自然疫源地 |
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PLAGUE EPIZOOTIC DYNAMICS AND RAINFALL IN ERDOSI DESERT-GRASSLANDS |
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| Li Zhonglai,et al.ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PLAGUE EPIZOOTIC DYNAMICS AND RAINFALL IN ERDOSI DESERT-GRASSLANDS[J].Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Disenaces,1997,12(5):261-263. |
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| Authors: | Li Zhonglai |
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| Institution: | Li Zhonglai,et al
Department of Mathematics,Beijing Normal University,Beijing |
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| Abstract: | This paper discussed the relationship between the plague epizootic dynamics and the rainfall data in Er-dosi desert-grasslands in the period of 1967-1996. The comparison concluded that the plague epizootic would occurred next year or the year after next when the precipitation from June to August arrived the 210mm in two successed years. Moreover,the ANOVA was conducted the rainfall periods which were eleven and eight years. The forecast result:the epizootic plague will be epidemic either 2002 or 2003 or so. |
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| Keywords: | Merionus unguiculatas Plague Rainfall |
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