人体测量学指标对老年人群代谢综合征的预测价值

目的筛查预测任丘地区老年人群代谢综合征(metabolic syndrome，MS)的简易人体测量学指标。方法采用整群随机抽样的方法，对任丘市常住人群60～70岁共4 412例，进行面对面问卷调查、体格检查及实验室检测。将男女分组后，采用ROC曲线分析法判断颈围、体质量指数(body mass index，BMI)、腰身指数(waist height ratio，WHtR)对老年代谢综合征的筛查作用，并确定最佳切点、敏感度、特异度和曲线下面积。结果颈围、BMI、WHtR均对老年男女MS的预测有显著意义（P<0.01）。在老年男性中，颈围37.75 cm，BMI 24.95 kg/m2，WHtR 0.56为预测MS的最佳切点， 曲线下面积分别为0.779、0.797、0.817；而在老年女性中，颈围34.15 cm，BMI 24.55 kg/m2，WHtR 0.56为预测MS的最佳切点，曲线下面积分别为0.769、0.766、0.775。其中，在老年男女性中， 腰身指数的曲线下面积在所有参数中均最大。结论颈围、体质量指数、腰身指数此类简易人体测量学指标在MS的筛查以及预测均有重要意义，腰身指数为最佳的预测指标。

Utility of anthropometric parameters for prediction of metabolic syndrome in the elderly

ObjectiveTo screen summary anthropometry index of each composition for the elderly in predicting metabolic syndrome in Renqiu. MethodsA cluster random sampling method was used to study Renqiu permanent residents the age 60 to 70 years， including 4 412 cases， using face to face health questionnaire， anthropometric measurements， and laboratory test. Gender grouping according， ROC curve analysis was used to determine the boundary value of neck circumference， body mass index and waist height ratio. ResultsNeck circumference， body mass index and waist height ratio had significant potential for predicting metabolic syndrome in the elderly（P<0.01）.In the male，the neck circumference 37.75 cm，body mass index 24.95 kg/m2 and waist height ratio 0.56 were the optimal cutoff points for screening and predicting the presence of metabolic syndrome. The area under the AUC was 0.779，0.797，0.817. In the female， the neck circumference 34.15 cm，body mass index 24.55 kg/m2 and waist height ratio 0.56 were the optimal cutoff points for screening and predicting the presence of metabolic syndrome. The area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.769，0.766，0.775. Waist height ratio showed the highest AUC in all the parameters in men and women. ConclusionNeck circumference， body mass index and waist height ratio play important roles in the prediction of metabolic syndrome， and waist height ratio seems to be the best parameter in the prediction of metabolic syndrome in the elderly.