我国卫生监督人才需求预测研究

目的了解2005～2009年全国卫生监督机构人才数量及流失情况,并通过2005～2009年的数据,预测2010～2020年卫生监督机构人才需求量和平均每年需要补充的人员数量。方法通过趋势预测法预测2011～2020年中国人口总量,并利用人力/人口比值法预测2010～2020年所需卫生监督机构人才数量,在掌握流失率的基础上,预测平均每年需要补充的人才量。结果 (1)按照2015年和2020年分别达到1万人配备1名监督员和1万人配置1.5名监督员的标准,2015年底需要达到138 057名监督员,2020年底需要达到212 691名监督员;(2)2006～2009年卫生监督人才平均流失率为1.10%;(3)分别按照以上配置标准,要达到2015年的人才需求量,从2010年开始每年需要补充9 499名卫生监督员。要达到2020年的目标人员量,从2010年开始每年需要补充14 346名卫生监督员。结论 (1)卫生监督人才流失日益严重,需要调整人才管理策略;(2)卫生监督人才缺口较大,需要加强人才队伍建设。

Predictive study on the health supervision personnel demand in China

Objective To understand the quantity and loss of national health supervision agency staffs from 2005 to 2009, and to predict the health supervision personnel demand from 2010 to 2020, and the annual amount of demanded talents. Methods Using trend forecasting method to predict the size of Chinese population from 2011 to 2020, and estimating manpower / population ratio to predict the amount of health supervision personnel needed. With loss rate, annual amount of personnel demanded are projected. Results According to the standards of one supervisor and 1.5 supervisors per 10,000 people in 2015 and 2020,respectively, 138 057 supervisors and 212691 supervisors are needed at the end of 2015 and 2020,respectively. The average loss rate of health supervision personnel is 1.10% from 2006 to 2009;According to above standards, to achieve the talent demand in 2015, from 2010, 9 499 health supervisors need to be recruited each year, to achieve the goal of 2020, 14 346 health supervisors need to be supplemented each year from 2010 onwards. Conclusion Health supervisor loss is becoming increasingly serious, the strategy of human resource management need to be adjusted; The gap between current amount and the demand is large, there is a need to increase the health supervision personnel.