灰色GM（1.1）模型在预测临床用血需求量中的应用

目的为保障临床合理利用血液资源,科学制定血液采集计划提供依据。方法将统计学方法应用于临床用血需求量预测中,对成都市2002~2009年临床用血量进行统计分析,建立灰色GM（1、1）模型,预测2010、2011、2012年临床用血需求量。结果 2010、2011、2012年临床用血需求量分别为195568、229611、270089单位。结论灰色GM（1.1）模型具有所需样本量小,无需典型概率分布,计算简便和拟合度高等优点,是血站制定血液采集、制备、供应计划,强化科学管理的可行性工具。

Application of Gray GM(1.1)Model in forecasting clinic blood requirement

Objective To guarantee blood resources for reasonable clinic usage and provide basis for blood collection plan in a scientific way.Methods We applied statistical methods in forecasting clinic blood requirement and made statistical analysis of clinic blood usage volumes in Chengdu City from 2002 to 2009, and established the gray GM（1.1） model to forecast the clinic blood usage volumes of 2010,2011 and 2012.Results The clinic blood requirement volumes for 2010,2011 and 2012 are respectively 195568,229611 and 270089 units. Conclusion The gray GM（1.1） model has such advantages as a smaller quantity of samples required,no need for typical probability distribution,easy calculation and a high degree of fitting.Therefore,it is an applicable tool for blood banks to make plans of blood collection,preparation and provision and to enhance scientific management.