Multivariate discriminant analysis of risk factors for operative mortality following isolated coronary artery bypass graft. Loyola University Medical Center experience, 1970 to 1984

The Loyola Open-Heart Registry is a fully operational database that contains detailed data on approximately 9,000 patients who have undergone coronary bypass or cardiac valve replacement from January 1970 to December 1984. We analyzed the registry data using multivariate discriminant analysis to identify and quantitate those factors that might predict operative mortality (OM) for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts at Loyola University Medical Center: Operative mortality was defined as death within 30 days following surgery. A total of 50 clinical and angiographic variables were analyzed for possible univariate association with operative mortality. Twenty-two variables were found to have significant univariate association with OM, and these 22 variables were subjected to multivariate discriminant analysis. For patients undergoing isolated, elective coronary artery bypass, the factors found to be predictive of OM are age (greater than 70) (F = 11.57), severe (more than six stenoses) coronary artery disease (F = 5.81), diffuse disease (F = 5.54), positive family history (F = 5.17), and number of coronary arteries bypassed (F = 4.78).