| 大气颗粒物与上海浦东新区流感确诊病例相关性的时间序列研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈诹,王远萍,刘丹,朱渭萍,顾霍铮,赵琦,郝莉鹏.大气颗粒物与上海浦东新区流感确诊病例相关性的时间序列研究[J].湖北预防医学杂志,2021,32(1):36-39,71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈诹 王远萍 刘丹 朱渭萍 顾霍铮 赵琦 郝莉鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心,上海 200136;复旦大学浦东预防医学研究院;复旦大学公共卫生学院;上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心,上海 200136;复旦大学浦东预防医学研究院;复旦大学公共卫生学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技重大专项-基于社区人群的自然疫源性传染病发病和流行水平研究(2018ZX10713001008)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的了解大气颗粒物与上海市浦东新区流感确诊病例的相关性,为制定相关控制措施提供依据。方法收集上海市浦东新区2014年1月1日至2018年12年31日气象因素(平均气温、相对湿度、大气压)、大气污染物(PM 2.5、PM 10、SO 2、NO 2、CO、O 3)及不同年龄和性别流感确诊病例数等资料,拟合Poisson分布广义相加模型评估大气颗粒物(PM 2.5、PM 10)与流感确诊病例的相关性。结果大气颗粒物PM 2.5及PM 10与浦东新区流感确诊病例数存在相关性,两种颗粒物浓度每增加10μg/m 3,在滞后0~7d(lag07)时分别增加0.638%(95%CI:0.413%~0.864%),0.520%(95%CI:0.324%~0.715%),且不同年龄和性别的人群受大气颗粒物影响存在差异;在多污染物模型中纳入SO 2、NO 2、CO、O 3的影响后,大气颗粒物对流感样病例数的效应有所改变。结论大气颗粒物(PM 2.5、PM 10)浓度上升将增加浦东新区流感确诊病例数。
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| 关 键 词： | PM2.5 PM10 流感确诊病例 广义相加模型 |
Time series study on the correlation between atmospheric particulate matter and confirmed cases of influenza in Pudong New Area,Shanghai |
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| CHEN Zou,WANG Yuanping,LIU Dan,ZHU Weiping,GU Huozheng,ZHAO Qi,HAO Lipeng.Time series study on the correlation between atmospheric particulate matter and confirmed cases of influenza in Pudong New Area,Shanghai[J].Hubei Journal of Preventive Medicine,2021,32(1):36-39,71. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Zou WANG Yuanping LIU Dan ZHU Weiping GU Huozheng ZHAO Qi HAO Lipeng |
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| Institution: | (Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200136,China;Fudan University Pudong Institute of Preventive Medicine,Shanghai 200136,China;School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To understand the correlation between atmospheric particulate matter and confirmed cases of influenza in Pudong New Area,Shanghai,and to provide a basis for formulating relevant control measures.Methods The meteorological factors(average temperature,relative humidity,and atmospheric pressure),atmospheric pollutants(PM 2.5,PM 10,SO 2,NO 2,CO,and O 3)and confirmed cases of influenza of different ages and genders from January 1,2014 to December 31,2018 were collected.Data was fitted to a generalized additive model of Poisson distribution to assess the correlation between atmospheric particulate matter(PM 2.5,PM 10)and the number of confirmed cases of influenza.Results There was a correlation between atmospheric particulate matter and the number of confirmed cases of influenza in Pudong New Area.For each increase of 10μg/m3 in the concentration of the two types of particulate matter,the confirmed cases increased by 0.638%(95%CI:0.413%~0.864%),and 0.520%(95%CI:0.324%~0.715%),respectively,when the lag was 0-7d(lag07).People of different ages and genders were affected by atmospheric particulate matter differently.After incorporating the effects of SO 2,NO 2,CO,and O 3 in the multi-pollutant model,the effect of atmospheric particulate matter on the number of influenza cases had changed.Conclusion The increase of atmospheric particulate matter(PM 2.5,PM 10)concentration increased the number of confirmed cases of influenza in Pudong New Area. |
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| Keywords: | PM 2 5 PM 10 Influenza Generalized additive model |
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