中国的死亡率进度效应与去进度效应平均预期寿命

目的：介绍死亡率进度效应,其也是高估中国人口平均预期寿命的不可忽略的因素之一,说明去进度效应平均预期寿命是衡量人口寿命水平和健康水平变动趋势的更佳指标。方法：采用1994-2016年中国的死亡数据,以John Bongaarts和Griffith Feeney提出的三步估计策略,考察了中国的去进度效应平均预期寿命。结果与结论：（1）与常规预期寿命指标相比,去进度效应平均预期寿命呈更加平稳增长的趋势,女性的平均预期寿命及其增长速度均高于男性;（2）中国1994-2016年平均预期寿命的进度效应在2~5岁之间波动,平均在2.5岁以上,明显高于已有研究所涉及欧美国家的进度效应,表明中国死亡率下降速度更快;（3）就"六普"而言,进度效应会造成常规平均预期寿命高估寿命水平,男性、女性和两性合计人口的幅度分别为2.43岁、2.63岁和2.57岁,去进度效应预期寿命或许可以更好地测度中国人口的寿命水平及其变化趋势。

Tempo effects in mortality and tempo-adjusted life expectancy in China

Objective:to introduce the concept of mortality tempo effect, explore its distortion on the life expectancy in China, and demonstrate tempo-adjusted life expectancy as a more reasonable indicator to measure life span and health condition. Methods:taking advantage of the yearly data on death for China from 1994 to 2016, this study investigates that tempo-adjusted life expectancy, through the approach proposed by John Bongaarts and Griffith Feeney. Results and Conclusions:(1) in contrast to conventional life expectancy, tempo-adjusted life expectancy tends to increase more steadily, and both level and its growth rate of life expectancy for women are higher than those for men. (2) The tempo effects of mortality for China fluctuate between 2 and 5 from 1994 to 2016, with an average of 2.5 and above, which is clearly higher than those for European countries and United States. This suggests that the speed of mortality decline in China is much faster. (3) As far as the sixth census concerned, the potential tempo effects might make the conventional life expectancy overestimate the health level in China. The tempo-adjusted life expectancy may be a preferred measure of the life expectancy of the Chinese population.