A preoperative clinical prognostic model for non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model to predict the outcome before surgery for non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The records of 660 patients with non-metastatic RCC, operated at three European medical institutes, were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess the clinical and pathological variables affecting disease-free survival. RESULTS: The median (range) follow-up was 42 (2-180) months; the disease recurred in 110 patients (16%). The 2- and 5-year overall survival was 87% and 54%, respectively. Five variables were significant in the univariate analysis, i.e. clinical presentation, clinical and pathological size, tumour grade and stage (P < 0.05). The preoperative variables, e.g. clinical presentation and clinical tumour size, were retained from the multivariate model. A recurrence risk formula (RRF) was constructed from this model, as (1.28 x presentation (asymptomatic = 0; symptomatic = 1) + (0.13 x clinical size)). Using this equation, the 2- and 5-year disease-free survival was 96% and 93% for an RRF of < or = 1.2 and 83% and 68% for an RRF of > 1.2. CONCLUSION: A formula was developed which, independent of stage, can be used to predict the rate of treatment failure in patients who undergo nephrectomy for non-metastatic RCC. The RRF might be useful for more accurate sub-grouping of good-prognosis patients, and for counselling patients before surgery, their personalized follow-up or adjuvant treatment once available.