三峡库区湖北宜昌段肺结核发病风险GM（1,1）预测分析

目的预测三峡库区湖北宜昌段肺结核发病趋势,为制定针对性的预防控制措施提供依据。方法根据三峡库区湖北宜昌段1997-2008年肺结核发病率,建立GM（1,1）模型,进行中长期预测研究。结果预测模型精度检验C=0.1773,P=1.0000,外推预测理想。预测结果显示,2009-2012年三峡库区湖北宜昌段肺结核年发病率分别为260.55/10万,317.41/10万,385.31/10万,466.18/10万。结论预测表明2009-2012年三峡库区宜昌段肺结核年发病率呈上升趋势,提示应大力加强三峡库区范围重点传染病监测,强化综合性预防控制措施,以控制、降低肺结核的发病风险。

Prediction of tuberculosis risk with grey dynamic model in the Yichang region of the Three Gorges Reservoir area

Objective To predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Yichang region of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.Methods The grey dynamic model was established with the incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yichang from 1997 to 2008.We use the model to predict the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis for the year of 2009-2012.Results The model predicted that the incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis would be 260.55,317.41,385.31,466.18 per 100 000 person-years respectively for the year of 2009-2112.Conclusion The model suggested the upward trend of the disease incidence.Comprehensive measures should be taken to control the risk of TB disease transmission in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.