成都市大气颗粒物对居民心脑血管疾病死亡的急性影响研究

目的 探讨成都市大气颗粒物的急性暴露与居民每日心脑血管疾病死亡的关系。方法 收集2013-2015年成都市大气PM2.5、PM10、SO2和NO2的日平均浓度、气象因素(包括日平均气温和相对湿度)及心脑血管疾病日死亡数。采用广义相加模型(Generalized Additive Models，GAM)建立单污染物、多污染物模型，分析大气PM2.5、PM10浓度对居民心脑血管疾病日死亡数的影响。结果 大气污染物PM2.5、PM10浓度分别为75.9、119.7μg/m3，PM2.5高于GB3095-2012《环境空气质量标准》 二级标准。单污染物模型中，大气PM2.5(lag1)和PM10(lag01)浓度每增加10μg/m3，心脑血管疾病日死亡数分别增加0.29%(95%CI:0.01%~0.56%)和0.27%(95%CI:0.09%~0.45%)。PM2.5和PM10浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡的暴露反应关系基本呈线性。多污染物模型中，PM2.5和PM10单独或同时引入SO2、NO2时，对心脑血管疾病日死亡数的影响消失(P>0.05)。结论 成都市大气PM2.5和PM10浓度升高可能导致居民心脑血管疾病日死亡数增加。

Acute effects of atmospheric particulates on mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Chengdu

Objective To investigate the relationship between acute exposure to atmospheric particulates and mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Chengdu. Methods The daily average concentration of atmospheric particulates, meteorological factors and daily mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Chengdu from 2013 to 2015 were collected. Single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models were established by using generalized additive models (GAM). The effects of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations on the daily mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were analyzed, respectively. Results The concentrations of air pollutants PM2.5 and PM10 were 75.9 and 119.7 μg/m3, respectively. The concentration of PM2.5 was higher than Grade II of Ambient Air Quality Standard (GB3095-2012). In the single-pollutant model, PM2.5 (lag1) and PM10 (lag01) were significantly associated with an increasing risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. For every 10μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 and PM10, the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases decreased by 0.29% (95%CI: 0.01%~0.56%) and 0.27% (95%CI: 0.09%~0.45%). In the multi-pollutant model, when PM2.5 and PM10 were introduced into SO2 and NO2 alone or simultaneously, the effects were non-significant (P>0.05). Conclusion The findings suggest that short-term exposure to atmospheric particulates can increase the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Chengdu.