| ARIMA模型在医院出院患者预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 武红涛. ARIMA模型在医院出院患者预测中的应用[J]. 解放军医院管理杂志, 2009, 16(1): 21-23 |
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| 作者姓名： | 武红涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国医科大学附属盛京医院信息科,沈阳,110004 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的：分析医院出院患者变化规律,预测其变化趋势。方法：应用SPSS 13．0软件对1999-2007年逐月出院患者进行ARIMA模型建模拟合,用所得到的模型预测2008年出院患者数据。结果：ARIMA（0,1,1）×（1,1,0）12模型很好的拟合了既往出院患者序列,参数有统计学意义。结论：ARIMA模型能很好的拟合出院患者的变动趋势,为医院管理提供决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 医院管理 |
Prediction of Hospital Discharged Patients with Time Series Model |
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| WU Hong-tao. Prediction of Hospital Discharged Patients with Time Series Model[J]. Hospital Administration Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army, 2009, 16(1): 21-23 |
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| Authors: | WU Hong-tao |
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| Affiliation: | WU Hong- tao (Information Department, Shengjing Hospital, China Medical University, Shenyang 110004 ) |
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| Abstract: | Objective： To predict the trend of discharged patients. Methods： SPSS13.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the discharged patients from Jan. 1999 to Dec. 2007. Then the model was used to predict the discharged patients in 2008. Results： ARIMA（0,1,1 ） × （1,1,0） 12 was exactly fitted the dis- charged patients of previous month ; the estimated parameters was statistically significant （ p = 0. 000 ）. Conclusion： ARIMA model can be used to predicate the trends of discharged patients, which will be useful for hospital manager to make decisions. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis ARIMA model hospital manage |
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