初治涂阳肺结核化疗结局预测模型研究

目的探索适宜的初治涂阳肺结核化疗结局的预测模型。方法采用病例对照研究和数理统计的方法,利用登记治疗的118例初治涂阳肺结核病人构建Logistic回归模型。结果构建了适用于初治涂阳肺结核患者化疗结局数据模型:ln（p/1-p)=4.135-3.963.Z3-2.319.Z11-3.686.Z13-2.058.Z14,预测准确度为79.2%。结论该模型的建立为广东省结核病控制工作的评价、预测化疗结局提供了一个较为可靠的方法。

The dynamic evaluation model for prediction the result of chemotherapy in new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases

Objective To explore a dynamic evaluation model for prediction the result of chemotherapy in new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases. Methods The case-control study and mathematical statistic were used to analyze 118 new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were registered in 2005 to develop Logistic regression mode. Results The logistic analysis was used to make the dynamic evaluation model for prediction the result of chemotherapy in new smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases.The mode is ln (p/1-p)=4.135-3.963·Z3-2.319·Z11-3.686·Z13-2.058·Z14,and the accuracy of the model is up to 79.2%. Conclusion The model provides a reliable method for the dispensary to evaluate and predict the work of tuberculosis control in Guangdong province.