A prediction equation for indirect assessment of anaerobic threshold in male distance runners

Summary The predictability of anaerobic threshold (AT) from maximal aerobic power, distance running performance, chronological age, and total running distance achieved on the treadmill (TRD) was investigated in a sample of 53 male distance runners, 17–23 years of age. The dependent variable was oxygen uptake ( ) at which AT was detected (i. e., @AT). A regression analysis of the data indicated @AT could be predicted from the following four measurements with a multipleR=0.831 and a standard error of the estimate of 2.66 ml · min⁻¹ · kg⁻¹: (67.9±5.7 ml · min⁻¹ · kg⁻¹), 1,500-m running performance (254.5±14.2 s), TRD (6.82±1.13 km), and age (19.4±2.2 years). When independent variables were limited to (X ₁) and 1,500-m running performance (X ₂) for simpler assessment, a multipleR=0.806 and a standard error of the estimate of 2.76 ml · min⁻¹ · kg⁻¹ were computed. A useful prediction equation with this predictive accuracy was considered to be @AT= 0.386X₁−0.128X₂+57.11. To determine if the prediction equation developed for the 53 male distance runners could be generalized to other samples, cross-validation of the equation was tested, using 21 different distance runners, 17–22 years of age. A high correlation (R=0.927) was obtained between @AT predicted from the above equation and directly measured @AT. It is concluded that the generalized equation may be applicable to young distance runners for indirect assessment of @AT. This study was supported by grants from The Descente Foundation for the Promotion of Sports Science, awarded to K. Tanaka