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| 应用ARIMA模型预测成都市新都区麻疹的发病趋势 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈明惠,胡云,支洋英,周晓锋,蒋敏.应用ARIMA模型预测成都市新都区麻疹的发病趋势[J].现代预防医学,2012,39(2):267-269. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈明惠 胡云 支洋英 周晓锋 蒋敏 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 成都市新都区疾病预防控制中心,成都,610500;香港中文大学公共卫生与基层医疗学院 2. 成都市新都区疾病预防控制中心,成都,610500 3. 四川大学华西公共卫生学院 |
| 摘 要： | 目的]预测成都市新都区麻疹的发病趋势,为制定防治措施提供参考依据。方法]以1985～2008年成都市新都区麻疹年发病率作为历史序列,建立自回归移动平均(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA)模型。结果]采用ARIMA(1,2,0)预测该地区麻疹的发病趋势,2009～2012年麻疹的发病率分别为2.66/10万、1.65/10万、0.88/10万、0.35/10万。结论]至2012年该地区达到WHO和我国提出消除麻疹水平(1/100万以下)的要求尚存在一定差距,因此,当前应进一步加强本地区麻疹预防控制措施的力度。 |
| 关 键 词： | 麻疹 ARIMA 预测 |
APPLICATION OF ARIMA IN PREDICTION OF INCIDENCE OF MEASLES IN XINDU DISTRICT,CHENGDU CITY |
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| Institution: | CHEN Ming-hui,HU Yun,ZHI Yang-ying,et al.(Xindu Center for Disease Control and Precention,Chengdu 610500,China) |
| Abstract: | Objective]To predict the incidence of measles in recent years.Methods]Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)was used to predict the incidence of measles by applying the incidence rate during 1985-2008 as historical series.Results]ARIMA(1,2,0)model was chosen to predict.The prediction incidence of measles during 2009-2012 was 2.66,1.65,0.88 and 0.35 per ten thousands persons,respectively.Conclusion]There is a gap that the incidence rate of measles would be below than 10 per ten thousand persons in 2012,Chinese measles incidence rate for elimination measles.So some strong control and prophylaxis methods should be applied for this aim. |
| Keywords: | Measles ARIMA Prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |