| 应用ARIMA模型预测昭通市麻疹发病趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 龙应欢,曾义虎,胡慧兰.应用ARIMA模型预测昭通市麻疹发病趋势[J].医学动物防制,2014(4):383-385. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龙应欢 曾义虎 胡慧兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 昭通市疾病预防控制中心,云南657000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的预测昭通市麻疹的发病趋势，为制定防治措施提供参考依据。方法应用SPSS17．0软件对2005年1月至2013年3月麻疹发病率进行ARIMA模型建模拟合，用所得到的模型对2013年各月发病率进行预测，并与实际发病率进行比较。结果采用ARIMA（1，2，1）（0，1，0）12预测昭通市麻疹的发病趋势，2013年发病率为12．26／10万。结论ARIMA模型能很好地模拟麻疹发病率在时间序列上的变动趋势，并对未来的发病率进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 预测 麻疹 发病率 |
Application of arima in prediction of incidence of measles in zhaotong city |
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| Institution: | LONG Ying - huan, ZENG Yi - hu, HU Hui - lan( Zhaotong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yunnan 657000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To predict the trend of incidence of measles , provide a reference for developing preven- tion and control strategies. Methods Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model （ARIMA） was fitted by applying the incidence rate from January 2005 to March 2013 as historical series with SPSS 17.0 software, which was used predict the incidence of measles in the future, comparing the predictors with the facts. Results ARIMA （1, 2, 1） （0, 1, 0） 12 model was chosen to the prediction. The incidence of measles was predicted 12.26 per 100 000 in 2013. Conclusions ARIMA model can simulate the trend of measles fluctua- tion on time series, and can predict the incidence of measles in the future. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA model Prediction Measles Incidence |
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