Serum progesterone at the time of human chorionic gonadotrophin does not predict pregnancy in in-vitro fertilization and embryo transfer

Controversy exists as to whether the serum concentration ofprogesterone on the day of human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG)administration following ovarian stimulation for in-vitro fertilization(IVF) and embryo transfer can be used to predict the likelihoodof success. This retrospective study was undertaken to answerthis question by analysing a large population of IVF and embryotransfer cycles (n = 756). In addition to the concentrationof progesterone on the day of HCG administration, all variablesknown to impact on IVF and embryo transfer success (such aspatient age), indication for IVF and embryo transfer, numberof oocytes retrieved and the number of embryos generated andtransferred were examined. There was a significant increasein the number of oocytes retrieved with increasing progesteroneconcentration at the time of HCG administration. However, therewas no correlation of progesterone concentration at HCG administrationwith pregnancy and implantation rates. It is concluded thatprevious reports associating a slight elevation of progesteronein gonadotrophin- releasing hormone agonist ovarian stimulationcycles for IVF and embryo transfer may be misleading becauseof a small sample size or the presence of confounding variablesthat affect IVF and embryo transfer success.