甘肃省农村地区医护人员需求预测分析

目的 预测甘肃省2012-2020年农村地区医护人员数量及需求变化情况,为区域卫生人力规划提供参考依据。方法 收集2003-2011年甘肃省农村人口及医护人员的基础数据,运用人力人口比值法对甘肃省2012-2020年的农村医护人员需求量及缺口进行预测。结果 甘肃省2003-2011年农村地区每千人口执业（助理）医师和注册护士的平均年增长率分别为1.74%和5.27%;到2020年,甘肃省农村地区执业（助理）医师和注册护士的预测值分别是23 810和21 763人,与《医药卫生中长期人才发展规划（2011-2020年）》相比,仍将存在15 253和36 645人的缺口。结论 甘肃省2012-2020年农村地区医护人员数量将逐年增加,供需缺口虽有缩小却将持续存在。

Prediction of demand for health human resources in rural Gansu province

Objective To predict the demand for health human resources in rural areas of Gansu province between 2012 and 2020 and to provide a reference for regional health workforce planning.Methods Baseline data on the rural population and the number of medical personnel in Gansu province (Gansu) between 2003 and 2011 were collected and then the demand and deficit of medical personnel during the period between 2012 and 2020 were predicted using manpower/population ratio method.Results The average annual increase rates of licensed practicing (assistant) doctor and registered nurse were 1.74% and 5.27% between 2003 and 2011.The predicted numbers of licensed practicing (assistant) doctor and registered nurse in rural areas of Gansu would be 23 810 and 21 763 in 2020.Compared with the requirements of "The Medium and Long Term Planning for Medical Talent Development in Gansu Province (2011-2020)",the deficits in the numbers of licensed practicing (assistant) doctor and registered nurse are 15 253 and 36 645,respectively.Conclusion The number of medical personnel in rural Gansu will increase yearly between 2012 and 2020 and the deficit in the number required would decrease but remain.