基于不同政策场景下上海市空气污染治理政策健康效益分析

目的 定量评价2001-2007年上海市空气污染治理政策的健康经济效益。方法 运用MARKAL优化模型模拟2001-2007年各政策场景下细颗粒物PM₁₀的排放情况；根据暴露-反应关系估算归因于PM₁₀污染的居民死亡及发病数；结合单位健康效应的经济价值，计算相应的经济损失。结果 2001-2007年上海市实施大气污染物排放控制措施，相比2000年颗粒物年均值下降20.5 μg/m³，避免了8 817例居民死亡，减少了1.59万例慢性支气管炎，44.62万例急性支气管炎，2.50万哮喘发作病例，6 225例住院病例，28.75万次内科门诊和3.03万次儿科门诊，健康经济收益为17.47亿美元~31.83亿美元。结论 上海市施行的一系列环境治理措施尤其是控制大气污染排放和调整能源结构，可以有效降低空气污染水平，改善城市居民的健康状况，带来可观的健康经济收益。

Health benefit assessment for air pollution control strategy under different policy scenarios in Shanghai

Objective To quantitatively assess the economic health benefit of implementing air pollution control policies in Shanghai between 2001 and 2007.Methods A market allocation (MARKAL) optimization model was used to simulate emission concentrations of particulate particles less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀) under different policy scenarios between 2001-2007.Exposure-response functions were also used to calculate the number of cases and mortality related to particulate air pollution.Corresponding economic benefits were estimated based on unit values of the health outcomes.Results With the implementation of air pollution control policies,PM₁₀ concentration was decreased by 20.5 μg/m³ during 2001-2007 compared with that in 2000;the estimated health effects associated with the reduction of PM₁₀ are the avoidances of 8 817 mortalities,15 900 chronic and 446 200 acute bronchitis incidences,25 000 asthma attacks,6 225 hospitalizations,287 500 internal medicine outpatient visits,and 30 300 pediatric outpatient visits among residents of Shanghai.The estimated total economic health benefit is 17.47-31.83 billions US dollars.Conclusion The implementation of air pollution control policies decreased air pollutants levels effectively and improved health status of residents in urban Shanghai,with a substantial economic benefit.