Bayesian consensus clustering for multivariate longitudinal data

In clinical and epidemiological studies, there is a growing interest in studying the heterogeneity among patients based on longitudinal characteristics to identify subtypes of the study population. Compared to clustering a single longitudinal marker, simultaneously clustering multiple longitudinal markers allow additional information to be incorporated into the clustering process, which reveals co-existing longitudinal patterns and generates deeper biological insight. In the current study, we propose a Bayesian consensus clustering (BCC) model for multivariate longitudinal data. Instead of arriving at a single overall clustering, the proposed model allows each marker to follow marker-specific local clustering and these local clusterings are aggregated to find a global (consensus) clustering. To estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters, a Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed. We apply our proposed model to the primary biliary cirrhosis study to identify patient subtypes that may be associated with their prognosis. We also perform simulation studies to compare the clustering performance between the proposed model and existing models under several scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed BCC model serves as a useful tool for clustering multivariate longitudinal data.     

Limited clinical activity of palbociclib and ribociclib monotherapy in advanced cancers with cyclin D-CDK4/6 pathway alterations in the Dutch DRUP and Australian MoST trials

The Dutch Drug Rediscovery Protocol (DRUP) and the Australian Cancer Molecular Screening and Therapeutic (MoST) Program are similar nonrandomized, multidrug, pan-cancer trial platforms that aim to identify signals of clinical activity of molecularly matched targeted therapies or immunotherapies outside their approved indications. Here, we report results for advanced or metastatic cancer patients with tumors harboring cyclin D-CDK4/6 pathway alterations treated with CDK4/6 inhibitors palbociclib or ribociclib. We included adult patients that had therapy-refractory solid malignancies with the following alterations: amplifications of CDK4, CDK6, CCND1, CCND2 or CCND3, or complete loss of CDKN2A or SMARCA4. Within MoST, all patients were treated with palbociclib, whereas in DRUP, palbociclib and ribociclib were assigned to different cohorts (defined by tumor type and alteration). The primary endpoint for this combined analysis was clinical benefit, defined as confirmed objective response or stable disease ≥16 weeks. We treated 139 patients with a broad variety of tumor types; 116 with palbociclib and 23 with ribociclib. In 112 evaluable patients, the objective response rate was 0% and clinical benefit rate at 16 weeks was 15%. Median progression-free survival was 4 months (95% CI: 3-5 months), and median overall survival 5 months (95% CI: 4-6 months). In conclusion, only limited clinical activity of palbociclib and ribociclib monotherapy in patients with pretreated cancers harboring cyclin D-CDK4/6 pathway alterations was observed. Our findings indicate that monotherapy use of palbociclib or ribociclib is not recommended and that merging data of two similar precision oncology trials is feasible.     

Screening for Candida auris in patients admitted to eight intensive care units in England, 2017 to 2018

Background Candida auris is an emerging multidrug-resistant fungal pathogen associated with bloodstream, wound and other infections, especially in critically ill patients. C. auris carriage is persistent and is difficult to eradicate from the hospital environment.AimWe aimed to pilot admission screening for C. auris in intensive care units (ICUs) in England to estimate prevalence in the ICU population and to inform public health guidance.MethodsBetween May 2017 and April 2018, we screened admissions to eight adult ICUs in hospitals with no previous cases of C. auris, in three major cities. Swabs were taken from the nose, throat, axilla, groin, perineum, rectum and catheter urine, then cultured and identified using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Patient records were linked to routine ICU data to describe and compare the demographic and health indicators of the screened cohort with a national cohort of ICU patients admitted between 2016 and 2017.ResultsAll C. auris screens for 921 adults from 998 admissions were negative. The upper confidence limit of the pooled prevalence across all sites was 0.4%. Comparison of the screened cohort with the national cohort showed it was broadly similar to the national cohort with respect to demographics and co-morbidities.ConclusionThese findings imply that C. auris colonisation among patients admitted to ICUs in England is currently rare. We would not currently recommend widespread screening for C. auris in ICUs in England. Hospitals should continue to screen high-risk individuals based on local risk assessment.