Understanding and using time series analyses in addiction research

Time series analyses are statistical methods used to assess trends in repeated measurements taken at regular intervals and their associations with other trends or events, taking account of the temporal structure of such data. Addiction research often involves assessing associations between trends in target variables (e.g. population cigarette smoking prevalence) and predictor variables (e.g. average price of a cigarette), known as a multiple time series design, or interventions or events (e.g. introduction of an indoor smoking ban), known as an interrupted time series design. There are many analytical tools available, each with its own strengths and limitations. This paper provides addiction researchers with an overview of many of the methods available (GLM, GLMM, GLS, GAMM, ARIMA, ARIMAX, VAR, SVAR, VECM) and guidance on when and how they should be used, sample size det ermination, reporting and interpretation. The aim is to provide increased clarity for researchers proposing to undertake these analyses concerning what is likely to be acceptable for publication in journals such as Addiction. Given the large number of choices that need to be made when setting up time series models, the guidance emphasizes the importance of pre‐registering hypotheses and analysis plans before the analyses are undertaken.     

Direct replication of task‐dependent neural activation patterns during sadness introspection in two independent adolescent samples

Functional neuroimaging results need to replicate to inform sound models of human social cognition and its neural correlates. Introspection, the capacity to reflect on one's thoughts and feelings, is one process required for normative social cognition and emotional functioning. Engaging in introspection draws on a network of brain regions including medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), middle temporal gyri (MTG), and temporoparietal junction (TPJ). Maturation of these regions during adolescence mirrors the behavioral advances seen in adolescent social cognition, but the neural correlates of introspection in adolescence need to replicate to confirm their generalizability and role as a possible mechanism. The current study investigated whether reflecting upon one's own feelings of sadness would activate and replicate similar brain regions in two independent samples of adolescents. Participants included 156 adolescents (50% female) from the California Families Project and 119 adolescent girls from the Pittsburgh Girls Study of Emotion. All participants completed the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ) and underwent a functional magnetic resonance imaging scan while completing the same facial emotion‐processing task at age 16–17 years. Both samples showed similar whole‐brain activation patterns when engaged in sadness introspection and when judging a nonemotional facial feature. Whole‐brain activation was unrelated to ERQ scores in both samples. Neural responsivity to task manipulations replicated in regions recruited for socio‐emotional (mPFC, PCC, MTG, TPJ) and attention (dorsolateral PFC, precentral gyri, superior occipital gyrus, superior parietal lobule) processing. These findings demonstrate robust replication of neural engagement during sadness introspection in two independent adolescent samples.