Risk as a pattern over time: Delineation of time-dependent risk factors in biological,psychological, and social variables in cancer patients

Background

Survival in cancer patients is associated with a multitude of biological, social, and psychological factors. Although it is well established that all these factors add to overall mortality, it is not well understood how the predictive power of these parameters changes in a comprehensive model and over time.

Methods

Patients who attended the authors’ outpatient clinic were invited to participate. The authors followed 5180 mixed cancer patients (51.1% female; mean age, 59.1 years [SD = 13.8]) for up to 16 years and analyzed biological (age, sex, cancer site, anemia), psychological (anxiety, depression), and social variables (marital status, education, employment status) potentially predicting overall survival in a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

The median survival time for the entire sample was 4.3 years (95% confidence interval, 4.0–4.7). The overall survival probabilities for 1 and 10 years were 76.8% and 38.0%, respectively. Following an empirical approach, the authors split the time interval into five periods: acute, subacute, short-term, medium-term, and long-term. A complex pattern of variables predicted overall survival differently in the five periods. Biological parameters were important throughout most of the time, social parameters were either time-independent predictors or tended to be more important in the longer term. Of the psychological parameters, only depression was a significant predictor and lost its predictive power in the long-term.

Conclusions

The findings of this study allow the development of comprehensive patient-specific models of risk and resilience factors addressing biopsychosocial needs of cancer patients, paving the way for a personalized treatment plan that goes beyond biomedical cancer care.     

地鳖纤溶蛋白口服时间/pH依赖结肠靶向微囊的开发及评价＊

地鳖中的纤溶活性蛋白是从地鳖中提取的具有抗栓及抗肿瘤作用的有效成分，其口服易被上消化道酶分解从而限制了应用。采用恒流泵滴制法开发地鳖纤溶活性蛋白时间/pH依赖口服结肠靶向微囊（EnpolypHaga fibrinolytic protein oral colon targeting microcapsules， CTM-EFP）。采用单因素实验和正交实验相结合的方法寻找到包封率为60.17 % ± 2.72 %、载药量为15.50 % ± 0.44 % 的最佳配方。扫描电子显微镜（SEM）显示微囊呈球形、表面光滑，在人工肠液中24 h的累积释放度为99.53 % ± 0.69 %，在人工胃液中24 h累积释放度为7.43 ± 1.04 %，通过时间/pH依赖达到结肠靶向作用。CTM-EFP在人工肠液中的体外释放曲线符合Korsmeyer方程，提示地鳖纤溶活性蛋白（EnpolypHaga fibrinolytic protein， EFP）是通过扩散和侵蚀机制结合释放的。CTM-EFP为EFP的口服给药提供了一种新的剂型，为EFP应用于临床提供参考。