沿海城市高温热浪与每日居民死亡关系的研究

目的 探讨高温热浪对沿海城市每日居民死亡情况的影响,为预防与控制热浪对城市居民健康的不良影响提供科学依据.方法 采用半参数广义相加模型对我国某沿海城市中心城区2005-2007年日平均温度与每日居民死亡数之间关系进行研究,同时采用分布滞后模型探索夏季日平均温度对每日居民死亡数的滞后效应.结果 通过平滑2005-2007年某沿海城市中心区日全死因死亡数与日平均温度的关系,得出它们之间的关系近似呈"V"型.夏季日平均温度每升高1 ℃,相对危险度增加0.036(P＜0.01).在建立的半参数广义相加模型中,日平均温度与日死亡数线性关系特别显著(P＜0.001),通过逐步回归对温度迟滞项lag1、lag2、lag3进行筛选,得出lag3代入模型最有意义,线性关系特别显著(P＜0.001).通过分布滞后模型,获得lag0、lag1对全死因死亡率的影响最明显(P＜0.000 1).结论 高温热浪对城镇居民每日居民死亡人数产生不利的影响,为了应对热浪活动在全球范围内日趋频繁的威胁,应该根据沿海城市的地区特点,采取相应的有效预防措施,以减少热浪导致的健康危害作用,确保沿海城市居民的健康.

Abstract：

Objective To understand the effects of heat wave on daily mortality of residents in a coastal city in China.Methods In this paper,semi-parametric generalized additive model waft used to study the relationship between average daily temperature and the daily mortality of local residents,and every day lag on the impact of daily mortality was observed by the distributed lag model,2005-2007.Results The relation between the coastal city daily mortality and the daily average temperature was fitted,2005-2007.The relation between them was approximately"V".In summer,the daily average temperature increased 1℃,the relative risk factor increased 0.036.In the establishment of the semi-parametric generalized additive regression model,the daily average temperature and daily mortality showed a significant linear relationship(P＜0.001).Stepwise regression of the temperature hysteresis of lag1,lag2,lag3 demonstrated lag3 was the most significant in the model of linear relationship(P＜0.001).The distribution lag model showed that lag0.lag1 had the most obvious effect on daily mortality.Conclusion The heat wave has adverse effect on the daily mortality of coastal urban residents.