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Peter T. Green Kyle E. Harms Joseph H. Connell 《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America》2014,111(52):18649-18654
A variety of ecological processes influence diversity and species composition in natural communities. Most of these processes, whether abiotic or biotic, differentially filter individuals from birth to death, thereby altering species’ relative abundances. Nonrandom outcomes could accrue throughout ontogeny, or the processes that generate them could be particularly influential at certain stages. One long-standing paradigm in tropical forest ecology holds that patterns of relative abundance among mature trees are largely set by processes operating at the earliest life cycle stages. Several studies confirm filtering processes at some stages, but the longevity of large trees makes a rigorous comparison across size classes impossible without long-term demographic data. Here, we use one of the world’s longest-running, plot-based forest dynamics projects to compare nonrandom outcomes across stage classes. We considered a cohort of 7,977 individuals in 186 species that were alive in 1971 and monitored in 13 mortality censuses over 42 y to 2013. Nonrandom mortality with respect to species identity occurred more often in the smaller rather than the larger size classes. Furthermore, observed nonrandom mortality in the smaller size classes had a diversifying influence; species richness of the survivors was up to 30% greater than expected in the two smallest size classes, but not greater than expected in the larger size classes. These results highlight the importance of early life cycle stages in tropical forest community dynamics. More generally, they add to an accumulating body of evidence for the importance of early-stage nonrandom outcomes to community structure in marine and terrestrial environments.Processes that operate nonrandomly with respect to species identity contribute to the structure of natural communities (1–3). Evidence from diverse rain forests includes demographic transitions from seeds to seedlings (4, 5), at the seedling (6, 7) and sapling stages (8) and among large trees (9–12). Although the relative contributions of nonrandom processes at each life cycle stage to determining patterns of abundance and diversity in the mature canopy are unknown, one long-standing paradigm is that community assembly is mediated primarily by events occurring from seed dispersal through seedling germination and small-sapling establishment (13–17). However, despite suggestive patterns (6, 7, 18, 19), evidence is lacking for the comparative strength of early-stage dynamics in determining canopy abundance and diversity.Numerous studies demonstrate significant interspecific variation in the susceptibility of tropical tree seedlings to postgermination hazards, including natural enemies (20, 21), adverse climatic or edaphic conditions (22), physical damage (23), and the crowding or shared-enemies effects of con- and heterospecific neighbors (24, 25). In other words, the per capita probability of seedling mortality is nonrandom because the probability of death is not the same for all individuals in a local community – it is dependent to some degree on species identity. In plant communities in which generation times are relatively short, experiments have demonstrated that nonrandom mortality through these early transitions can be sufficiently strong to affect the species composition of mature plants (26–29). Such demonstrations are impossible in studies of a few decades or less in duration when generation times are long and even juveniles live for several decades or centuries, such as in many tropical forests. Even so, some hypotheses explicitly identify stressors that affect plants at the earliest life cycle stages (such as pests and pathogens, 13, 14, 30) as disproportionately influential. In addition, some empirical studies find a lack of support for nonrandom processes operating among larger stems (31, 32). Together these hypotheses and observations provide the rationale underpinning the considerable body of research on seed and seedling dynamics in tropical forests worldwide. However, no empirical or experimental assessment has been made of the relative contributions across life cycle stages from nonrandom mortality.Here, we evaluate the comparative contribution of early-stage dynamics using a multidecadal study of a tropical forest dynamics plot initiated by one of us (J.H.C.) in 1963 at a site in north Queensland, Australia. We considered a cohort of 7,977 individuals in 186 species that were alive on the plot in 1971, from tiny seedlings to large canopy trees, whose fates were monitored in 13 mortality censuses over 42 y to 2013. Individuals were assigned to one of six size classes (Size class* N in 1971 S in 1971 S in 2013 D in 2013 (% mortality) SC1 (0-6.0-cm ht) 1,465 91 24 1,421 (97.0) SC2 (6.1–15.2-cm ht) 1,275 105 47 1,156 (90.7) SC3 (15.3–36.6-cm ht) 1,291 106 77 965 (74.7) SC4 (36.7–182.9-cm ht) 1,351 124 101 639 (47.3) SC5 (183.0-cm ht – 10-cm dbh) 1,208 135 123 330 (27.3) SC6 (≥10.1-cm dbh) 1,387 122 113 357 (25.7)