Retrospective Analysis Using Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling and Simulation Offers Improvements in Efficiency of the Design of Volunteer Infection Studies for Antimalarial Drug Development

Volunteer infection studies using the induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) model have been shown to facilitate antimalarial drug development. Such studies have traditionally been undertaken in single‐dose cohorts, as many as necessary to obtain the dose‐response relationship. To enhance ethical and logistic aspects of such studies, and to reduce the number of cohorts needed to establish the dose‐response relationship, we undertook a retrospective in silico analysis of previously accrued data to improve study design. A pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) model was developed from initial fictive‐cohort data for OZ439 (mixing the data of the three single‐dose cohorts as: n = 2 on 100 mg, 2 on 200 mg, and 4 on 500 mg). A three‐compartment model described OZ439 PKs. Net growth of parasites was modeled using a Gompertz function and drug‐induced parasite death using a Hill function. Parameter estimates for the PK and PD models were comparable for the multidose single‐cohort vs. the pooled analysis of all cohorts. Simulations based on the multidose single‐cohort design described the complete data from the original IBSM study. The novel design allows for the ascertainment of the PK/PD relationship early in the study, providing a basis for rational dose selection for subsequent cohorts and studies.

Study Highlights

• WHAT IS THE CURRENT KNOWLEDGE ON THE TOPIC?

☑ Volunteer infection studies are routinely used in antimalarial drug development to generate early pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic data for compounds.

• WHAT QUESTION DID THIS STUDY ADDRESS?

☑ Can in silico analyses be used to suggest improvements to volunteer infection study designs?

• WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD TO OUR KNOWLEDGE?

☑ Multiple dose adaptive trial designs can potentially reduce the number of cohorts needed to establish the dose‐response relationship in volunteer infection studies.

• HOW MIGHT THIS CHANGE CLINICAL PHARMACOLOGY OR TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE?

☑ Real time data analyses can be used to recommend doses for adaptive volunteer infection studies.

Volunteer infection studies using the induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) model have been recognized as a valuable system for defining the key pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) relationships for dose selection in antimalarial drug development. ¹ , ² , ³ , ⁴ , ⁵ , ⁶ , ⁷ In such studies, healthy volunteers are inoculated intravenously with a given quantity (with small variability) of Plasmodium‐infected red cells. Parasitemia is then followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction until a prespecified treatment threshold is reached when the test drug is administered. Parasite and drug concentrations are then measured. These studies are conducted prior to phase II dose‐response (D‐R) trials and can be included in an integrated first‐in‐human study protocol, or after completion of the first‐in‐human PK and safety study. IBSM studies have been typically designed as flexible multiple cohort studies where each volunteer of one cohort receives a single dose of the same amount of drug (“single dose per cohort”). ² , ³ , ⁴ , ⁵ After each cohort, a decision is made to stop or to add a cohort to test a lower or higher dose based on the response observed in the previous cohorts.For the multiple single‐dose‐per‐cohort design, the starting dose is typically selected based on safety and PK information from a phase I single ascending dose (SAD) study and, more recently, on preclinical data from a severe combined immunodeficient mouse model, with the dose selected on the basis of being best able to inform the D‐R relationship, rather than aiming for cure. This approach, where a single dose is tested in all subjects of the initial cohort, risks missing the dose likely to be most informative for defining the PK/PD relationship.An alternative approach is to spread a range of doses across a smaller number of subjects within the initial cohort and use PK/PD models developed based on data from this cohort to support dose selections of subsequent cohorts and studies. Using data from a previous study, ² we undertook an in silico investigation of such an adaptive study design, aiming to reduce the number of subjects exposed to inefficacious doses, and to establish a D‐R relationship. This multiple‐dose‐groups‐per‐cohort design, referred to as the “2‐2‐4” design, is contrasted with the already implemented study design depicted in Figure  1 .Open in a separate windowFigure 1Comparison of standard and adaptive designs of IBSM studies. A/B/C, dose levels to be selected during the progress of the study based on pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic results of the initial cohort; CHMI, controlled human malaria infection; D‐R, dose‐response; IBSM, induced blood stage malaria infection; n, number of subjects at each dose.The objectives of this retrospective analysis were to: (i) compare PK/PD parameter estimates from the initial cohort of the 2‐2‐4 study design with the prior results from the data of the full study and (ii) propose a preliminary workflow to establish D‐R early in an IBSM study, and use modeling and simulation (M&S) to support dose selections for subsequent cohorts and later phase clinical trials.     

Louisiana's “Medically Futile” Unborn Child List: Ethical Lessons at the Post-Dobbs Intersection of Reproductive and Disability Justice

Ableist attitudes and structures are increasingly recognized across all sectors of health care delivery. After Dobbs, novel questions arose in the United States concerning how to protect reproductive autonomy while avoiding discrimination against and devaluation of disabled persons. In this essay, we examine the Louisiana Department of Health's emergency declaration, “List of Conditions That Shall Deem an Unborn Child ‘Medically Futile,’” issued August 1, 2022. We raise a number of medical, ethical, and public health concerns that lead us to argue that the declaration should be rescinded. Analysis of this ethically objectionable declaration provides valuable lessons about how to uphold both reproductive and disability justice in a post-Dobbs landscape.     

The prognostic value of elevated neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio for cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Patients undergoing cardiac surgery are at significant risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). Neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a widely available inflammatory biomarker which may be of prognostic value in this setting.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting associations between perioperative NLR with postoperative AKI. We searched Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library, without language restriction, from inception to May 2022 for relevant studies. We meta-analysed the reported odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for both elevated preoperative and postoperative NLR with risk of postoperative AKI and need for renal replacement therapy (RRT). We conducted a meta-regression to explore inter-study statistical heterogeneity.

Results

Twelve studies involving 10,724 participants undergoing cardiac surgery were included, with eight studies being deemed at high risk of bias using PROBAST modelling. We found statistically significant associations between elevated preoperative NLR and postoperative AKI (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.18–1.77), as well as postoperative need for RRT (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.50–3.72). Postoperative NLR measurements were not of prognostic significance.

Conclusions

Elevated preoperative NLR is a reliable inflammatory biomarker for predicting AKI following cardiac surgery.     

Detrended fluctuation analysis detects altered coordination of running gait in athletes following a heavy period of training

Objectives

To investigate whether functional overreaching affects locomotor system behaviour when running at fixed relative intensities and if any effects were associated with changes in running performance.

Associations of Early Age of First Intoxication with Past Year Drinking Contexts and Problems

Background: Mechanisms underlying associations between early drinking and problems are largely unknown. Objectives: We investigated (a) associations between early age of first intoxication (≤15?years) and past year drinking in different contexts and (b) whether early age of first intoxication is differentially associated with problems in these contexts. Methods: We used survey data collected in 2013–2014 from 405 past-year adolescent drinkers in 24 midsized California cities. Data included demographics; drinking behaviors; age of first intoxication; frequency of being at and drinking at restaurants, bars/nightclubs, outdoor places, and home; and problems. We used multilevel logistic and negative binomial models to account for the clustering of adolescents within cities. Probabilities were corrected to maintain family-wise error rates. Results: Early age of first intoxication was associated with a 120% increase in the odds of drinking at outdoor settings (OR = 2.20, p_c < .05). Early age of first intoxication was associated with increased numbers of problems related to drinking in restaurants (IRR = 5.72, p_c < .001), outdoor settings (IRR = 3.40, p_c < .001), and homes (IRR = 2.84, p_c < .001). Later intoxication (≥16?years) was not significantly associated with increased drinking or problems in any of these contexts. Conclusions: Results suggest that underage drinkers who report early intoxication are more likely to drink at outdoor settings, but not other contexts. However, they may differentially experience drinking problems across contexts. To target youths who have experienced intoxication at an early age and to reduce problems, prevention interventions should focus on outdoor settings.     

A diagnostically‐challenging case of melanoma ex blue nevus with comprehensive molecular analysis,including the 23‐gene expression signature (myPath melanoma)

Melanoma ex blue nevus (MEBN) is a rare, aggressive, and potentially lethal neoplasm. Distinguishing MEBN from an atypical cellular blue nevus can be very challenging. We report a diagnostically difficult case of MEBN with lymph node metastases, in which single nucleotide polymorphism array and fluorescence in situ hybridization were used to arrive at the correct diagnosis. It was also analyzed by the recently‐introduced proprietary 23‐gene expression signature test. To the best of our knowledge, this is the second reported case of MEBN analyzed by the 23‐gene expression signature, which provided a false‐negative result. More studies are needed to assess the sensitivity and specificity of this test in various melanocytic proliferations.