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Nurbek Igissinov Gulnur Igissinova Zhansaya Telmanova Zarina Bilyalova Dariyana Kulmirzayeva Zhanar Kozhakhmetova Saltanat Urazova Dulat Turebayev Gaukhar Nurtazinova Ardak Omarbekov Aigul Almabayeva Zhanar Bukeyeva Dinara Tarzhanova Altyn Moldabayeva Marina Zhanaliyeva Ainagul Kazbekova Vladimir Openko Saken Kozhakhmetov Yerlan Kuandykov 《Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention》2021,22(4):1295-1304
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Yuliya Semenova Lyudmila Pivina Zaituna Khismetova Ardak Auyezova Ardak Nurbakyt Almagul Kauysheva Dinara Ospanova Gulmira Kuziyeva Altynshash Kushkarova Alexandr Ivankov Natalya Glushkova 《Yebang Ŭihakhoe chi》2020,53(6):387
ObjectivesThe lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.MethodsWe constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.ResultsOver the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.ConclusionsRepublic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions. 相似文献
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