Lifetime fracture risk: an approach to hip fracture risk assessment based on bone mineral density and age

Hip fractures occur late in life following a substantial reduction in skeletal mass. If risk for such fractures could be predicted early, efforts to prevent excessive bone loss would be more successful and could be directed at the individuals most likely to be affected. With this objective in mind, we devised an approach to estimating the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture based on age and on current femoral bone mineral density, using population-based data from ongoing studies of osteoporosis and fractures among Rochester, Minnesota, women. Our calculations indicate that, at any given age, the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture rises as current bone density diminishes. At any given level of femoral bone density, lifetime risk rises with younger age and increasing life expectancy. While these trends seem robust, estimates of risk vary substantially with the assumptions that underlie the model. Consequently, these assumptions must be validated before our findings can be applied clinically to predict risk for individual patients.     

Cancer risk after evaluation for infertility

To evaluate cancer risk by various causes of infertility, the authors conducted a retrospective cohort study among 2,335 women evaluated for infertility at the Mayo Clinic between 1935 and 1964. Most cancers occurred at expected frequencies, with the exception of cancers of the thyroid (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 2.6) and other endocrine glands (SIR = 6.7), although analyses were based on small numbers. Patients with progesterone deficiencies (31 per cent of the study subjects) had a 20 per cent higher cancer risk than did those with other causes of infertility, with excesses deriving primarily from cancers of the lung, cervix, ovary, and thyroid and from melanoma. Breast cancer risk, however, was not elevated in either patients with progesterone deficiencies (SIR = 0.9) or patients with other causes of infertility (SIR = 1.0). Examination of other parameters of infertility, including age at evaluation, type of infertility (primary vs. secondary), and years of attempted conception, showed no elevated risks of breast cancer in any subgroup. These results fail to support previous studies that have linked progesterone deficiencies among infertile women to elevated breast cancer risk. However, the data suggest a possible involvement of a progesterone deficiency in the etiology of other cancers, particularly thyroid cancer and melanoma.     

Fracture risk in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance.

To assess fractures in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of multiple myeloma, we followed 488 Olmsted County, MN, residents with MGUS in a retrospective cohort study. There was a 2.7-fold increase in the risk of axial fractures but no increase in limb fractures. The pathophysiologic basis for the increased axial fractures should be determined. INTRODUCTION: Multiple myeloma is often preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Fractures are common in myeloma as a result of lytic bone lesions, generalized bone loss, and elevated bone turnover from excessive cytokine production. Whether fractures are also increased in MGUS is unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a population-based retrospective cohort study, 488 Olmsted County, MN, residents with MGUS first diagnosed in 1960-1994 (52% men; mean age, 71.4 +/- 12.8 years) were followed for 3901 person-years; follow-up was censored at progression to myeloma. The relative risk of fractures was assessed by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and risk factors were evaluated in proportional hazards models. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Altogether, 200 patients experienced 385 fractures. Compared with expected rates in the community, statistically significant increases were seen for fractures at most axial sites, for example, vertebrae (SIR, 6.3; 95% CI, 5.2-7.5). There was a slight increase in hip (SIR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.2) but not distal forearm fractures (SIR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.4-1.5). The relative risk (SIR) of any axial fracture was 2.7 (95% CI, 2.3-3.1) compared with only 1.1 (95% CI, 0.9-1.4) for all limb fractures combined. In a multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of any subsequent fracture were age (hazard ratio [HR] per 10-year increase, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.6) and corticosteroid use (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.6); greater weight at diagnosis (HR per 10 kg, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.8-0.9), and IgG monoclonal protein (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.97) were protective. Baseline monoclonal protein level, a determinant of myeloma progression, did not predict fracture risk. Thus, the risk of axial, but not peripheral, fractures is increased among MGUS patients even before progression to myeloma. The pathophysiologic basis for this should be determined because elevated bone turnover, for example, might be treatable.     

FEASIBILITY OF CONDUCTING CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOME RESEARCH IN AUSTRALIAN GENERAL PRACTICE: RESULTS FROM THE ANBP2 PILOT STUDY

1. The present study aimed to determine the feasibility of conducting a 5 year cardiovascular outcome trial of the treatment of 6000 elderly hypertensive patients in Australian general practices. 2. General practitioners (GPs) were invited to participate by mail and personal follow-up. Patient records were reviewed to identify subjects for a blood pressure (BP) screening programme. Blood pressure was measured on three occasions and eligible subjects were included if the average BP was 160 mmHg systolic or 90 mmHg diastolic if systolic BP was 140 mmHg. 3. Seven hundred and forty-one GPs were approached and 89 were enrolled in the study (12% of mail invites and 75% of those receiving a personal contact). In 16 practices where screening was completed, 82 000 records were reviewed to identify 4% patients eligible for screening. Twenty-two per cent of eligible subjects attended screening. Of 1938 subjects screened, 180 (9%) had BP 5=160/90 mmHg. Forty-seven percent of subjects (n = 916) were receiving antihypertensive therapy and 184 (20%) were withdrawn from therapy. One hundred and sixteen (63%) of these subjects had BP return to study entry levels within 6 weeks. Fifty-seven newly diagnosed and 81 previously treated subjects were randomized (7% of the screened population). 4. Based on the high participation rate of GPs, the response rate of patients to attend a BP screening programme and the 7% randomization to screening ratio for entry into the study, the ANBP2 pilot study has demonstrated that it is feasible to recruit subjects from Australian general practices to a cardiovascular outcome trial.     

A population-based study of migraine headaches in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Case ascertainment and classification.

Using the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project for population-based studies, we identified 629 Olmsted County, Minn., residents who fulfilled the 1988 International Headache Society criteria for newly diagnosed migraine over a 3-year period. Over 6,400 patient records from several diagnostic rubrics were screened; a substantial proportion of cases had been 'signed-out' to diagnoses other than 'migraine headache'. Medical records were reviewed by two trained nurses who abstracted supporting data for two neurologists. The neurologists determined whether each case met eligibility requirements and assigned a headache diagnosis by consensus. The diagnostic criteria offered some flexibility and were adapted to retrospective record-based research. Most records contained enough information to effectively classify the headache, although information on the frequency and duration of attacks proved to be problematic. A validation re-abstraction of a 10% sample of cases was undertaken with acceptable reproducibility of symptoms and diagnosis. Our study shows that migraine headache can be studied retrospectively through existing detailed medical records.     

Effects of sex and age on bone microstructure at the ultradistal radius: a population-based noninvasive in vivo assessment.

In a population-based cross-sectional study, we examined effects of sex and age on bone microstructure at the wrist using high-resolution 3-D pQCT. Compared with women, men had thicker trabeculae in young adulthood and had less microstructural damage with aging. These findings may contribute to the virtual immunity of men to age-related increases in wrist fractures. INTRODUCTION: Although changes in bone microstructure contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD, it has not heretofore been possible to assess this noninvasively in population-based studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used high-resolution 3-D pQCT imaging (voxel size, 89 mum) to define, in a random sample of women (n = 324) and men (n = 278) 21-97 years of age, sex and age effects on bone microstructure at the wrist. RESULTS: Relative to young women (age, 20-29 years), young men had greater trabecular bone volume/tissue volume (BV/TV; by 26%, p = 0.001) and trabecular thickness (TbTh; by 28%, p < 0.001) but similar values for trabecular number (TbN) and trabecular separation (TbSp). Between ages 20 and 90 years, cross-sectional decreases in BV/TV were similar in women (-27%) and in men (-26%), but whereas women had significant decreases in TbN (-13%) and increases in TbSp (+24%), these parameters had little net change over life in men (+7% and -2% for TbN and TbSp, respectively; p < 0.001 versus women). However, TbTh decreased to a greater extent in men (-24%) than in women (-18%; p = 0.010 versus men). CONCLUSIONS: Whereas decreases with age in trabecular BV/TV are similar in men and women, the structural basis for the decrease in trabecular volume is quite different between the sexes. Thus, over life, women undergo loss of trabeculae with an increase in TbSp, whereas men begin young adult life with thicker trabeculae and primarily sustain trabecular thinning with no net change in TbN or TbSp. Because decreases in TbN have been shown to have a much greater impact on bone strength compared with decreases in TbTh, these findings may help explain the lower life-long risk of fractures in men, and specifically, their virtual immunity to age-related increases in distal forearm fractures.     

A potentially deleterious role of IGFBP-2 on bone density in aging men and women.

The role of the IGFs and IGFBPs on age-related changes in BMD in adult men and women is not well understood. Studying an age-stratified community based sample of 344 men and 276 women, we found higher IGFBP-2 levels to be associated with lower BMD. IGFBP-2, which increases with age in both men and women, was the strongest, most consistent predictor of BMD among the IGF/IGFBPs studied. INTRODUCTION: Insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) are important regulators of tissue growth and metabolism, but their association with BMD in adult men and women is controversial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In an age-stratified, random sample of the community population, we examined the role of serum levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGFBP-1, -2, and -3 on BMD of the proximal femur (total hip), lateral spine, midshaft, and ultradistal radius as measured by DXA. We explored the association before and after adjustment for potential confounders, including age, bioavailable estradiol and testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), and measures of total fat and skeletal muscle mass. RESULTS: We studied 344 men (age, 23-90 years) and 276 women (age, 21-93 years; 166 postmenopausal) not on hormone replacement or oral contraceptives. In both men and women, IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels fell with advancing age, whereas IGFBP-2 levels tended to rise with age. There was an inverse association of IGFBP-2 with BMD at most skeletal sites in men and both premenopausal and postmenopausal women, whereas lower IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were associated with lower BMD in men and postmenopausal women only. Lower IGF-II was associated with lower BMD in men only. There were no associations between IGFBP-1 and BMD in either sex. After adjustment for age, in most cases, we found no further associations between IGF-I, IGF-II, or IGFBP-3 and BMD. In contrast, after age adjustment, higher IGFBP-2 remained a predictor of lower BMD in men and postmenopausal women at all sites except for the lateral spine (for men: r = -0.21, -0.20, and -0.19, all p < 0.001; and for postmenopausal women: r = -0.34, -0.24, and -0.25, all p < 0.01, for the total hip, midshaft, and ultradistal radius, respectively). IGFBP-2 remained an independent negative predictor of BMD in men, postmenopausal women, and all women combined after additional adjustment for bioavailable sex steroids, but not at all sites after adjustment for SHBG and muscle mass. In premenopausal women, IGFBP-2 had similar associations as seen in postmenopausal women, but they were weaker and not statistically robust. CONCLUSIONS: Among the IGF/IGFBPs in our study, IGFBP-2 was a key negative predictor of BMD among men and women, particularly postmenopausal women. Our findings suggest a potential role of the IGF/IGFBP system in regulating bone loss in aging men and women and identify a previously under-recognized, potentially deleterious role for IGFBP-2, a known inhibitor of IGF action that increases with age in both sexes. Whether the action of the IGF/IGFBP system on bone metabolism is mediated partly through its effects on muscle mass or SHBG deserves further study.     

Hip fracture incidence before and after the fluoridation of the public water supply, Rochester, Minnesota.

Recent ecological comparison studies have suggested a positive association between fluoridation and hip fracture. Using data from the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we found the incidence of hip fracture for the 10 years before the fluoridation of the Rochester, Minn, public water supply was 484 per 100,000, compared with 450 per 100,000 in the following 10 years. When the effects of calendar time and age were controlled for, the relative risk associated with fluoridation was 0.63. These ecologic trend data suggest that the fluoridation of public water supplies is not associated with an immediate increase in rates of hip fracture. Further studies of this association at the individual level are clearly required before public policy decisions can be made.