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1.

Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective

We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

Study Design

Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.

Methods

From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).

Results

Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.  相似文献   
2.

Background

Observational studies of the relative effectiveness of influenza vaccines are essential for public health decision making. Their estimates, however, are subject to bias due to unmeasured confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) methods can control for observed and unobserved confounders.

Methods

We used linked electronic medical record databases in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) as well as Medicare administrative files to examine the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of high-dose influenza vaccine (HD) versus standard-dose influenza vaccines (SD) in preventing hospitalizations among VHA-enrolled Veterans ≥65?years of age during 5 influenza seasons (2010–2011 through 2014–2015). Using multivariable IV Poisson regression modeling to address unmeasured confounding and bias, we analyzed the data by each season and through longitudinal analysis of all five seasons.

Findings

We included 3,638,924 person–influenza seasons of observation where 158,636 (4%) were among HD vaccine recipients and 3,480,288 (96%) were among SD vaccine recipients. Of the 1,728,562 Veterans, 1,702,824 (98.5%) were male and 1,299,412 (75%) were non-Hispanic white. Based on the longitudinal analysis of all five seasons, the IV-adjusted rVE estimate of HD vs. SD was 10% (95% CI, 8–12%) against all-cause hospitalization; 18% (95% CI, 15–21%) against cardiorespiratory-associated hospitalization; and 14% (95% CI, 6–22%) against influenza/pneumonia-associated hospitalization. The findings by season were similar.

Interpretation

Our analysis of VHA clinical data collected from approximately 1.7 million Veterans 65?years and older during five seasons demonstrates that high-dose influenza vaccine is more effective than standard-dose influenza vaccines in preventing influenza- or pneumonia-associated hospitalizations, cardiorespiratory hospitalizations, and all-cause hospitalizations.  相似文献   
3.
Purpose: It was investigated whether alterations in neuronal structure and function occasioned by strabismic amblyopia also may be reflected in alterations in the expression on Y type neurons of a Cat-301 antibody sensitive antigen in the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and cortex of our cat model of strabismic amblyopia. Methods/Results: The percentage of positively labelled cells was reduced in LGN laminae that received input from the deviated eye in strabismic amblyopic cats compared with normal cats. In the strabismic cortex, the density of immunopositive neurons was significantly reduced compared with normal, the effect being most pronounced in layer IV Conclusions: Despite previous physiological recordings indicating a decrease in X-cell associated acuity in strabismic amblyopia, the present findings imply that the changes in the early visual experience occasioned by strabismus also produce specific molecular changes in theY neuronal class.  相似文献   
4.
Instillation of human neutrophil elastase (HNE) into hamster lungs produces milder emphysema but more pulmonary hemorrhage than an equivalent amount of porcine pancreatic elastase (PPE), whether equivalence is determined by elastolytic units or moles. We undertook a study of the mechanisms of these differences. 125I-HNE or 3H-PPE were instilled intratracheally into hamsters. The partitioning of radioactivity between bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) and lung tissue was similar for HNE and PPE as were the half-lives, 45 and 51 min, respectively, for uncomplexed, enzymatically active HNE and PPE. In BAL there was preferential binding and inactivation of HNE by the hamsters' alpha-1-protease inhibitor (a-1-PI) whereas PPE was preferentially bound by alpha-2-macroglobulin (a-2-M). This was also observed in vitro when HNE and PPE were incubated with plasma from untreated hamsters. Nevertheless, when the sum of the elastase binding capacity of a-1-PI and a-2-M was considered, hamster plasma had similar binding capacities for HNE and PPE. It is known that the enzymatic activity of elastases is inhibited by formation of a stable complex with a-1-PI. On the other hand, elastases bound to a-2-M are protected against a-1-PI inhibition but can free themselves by proteolysis and exhibit elastolytic activity. Preferential inactivation of HNE by a-1-PI may be one mechanism that accounts for the lesser emphysema-inducing potency of HNE than of PPE.  相似文献   
5.
To evaluate the early diastolic peak filling rate of the left ventricle, three groups of children (normal children, patients with aortic valvular stenosis, and patients with aortic coarctation) were examined with the peak filling rate normalized to stroke volume calculated from the mitral valve inflow Doppler recording as the peak E velocity divided by the velocity time integral. The normal value for this index in children was 6.78 +/- 0.99 SV/sec and did not vary with age, weight, body surface area, or heart rate. Compared with normal subjects, both patients with aortic stenosis and patients with coarctation had increased left ventricular mass, but patients with aortic stenosis had decreased normalized peak filling rates (5.3 +/- 0.84 SV/sec, p < 0.01), while patients with coarctation had normal rates (6.79 +/- 0.98 SV/sec, p = 0.97). Compared with patients with aortic coarctation, patients with aortic stenosis had higher Doppler gradients. Thus the Doppler index of peak filling rate normalized to stroke volume is particularly useful in children because it is independent of heart rate, age, weight, and body surface area. Patients with coarctation may have normal peak filling rates normalized to stroke volume despite increased left ventricular mass because of milder obstruction or better coronary artery perfusion compared with that of patients with aortic stenosis.  相似文献   
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A selected suite of cytochemical parameters in Mytilus edulis are altered in response to field and laboratory exposure to chemical contaminants. These biomarkers include lysosomal stability, nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH)–ferrihemoprotein reductase activity, liposfuscin deposition, and accumulation of lysosomal and cytoplasmic unsaturated neutral lipid. Normal variations in physiological processes (influenced by exogenous seasonal changes in temperature, salinity, food availability, etc.) may alter the sensitivity of these biomarkers to contaminant exposure. To address this issue, M. edulis (complex) were sampled monthly from a reference nonurban site (Coupeville, Penn Cove) and a polluted urban site (Seacrest, Elliott Bay) in Puget Sound, WA, for a period of 15 months. Physiological measurements including total length, total weight, somatic and mantle weights (an indication of gonadal development and reproductive status), condition index, and the presence or absence of hemic neoplasia (HN, or leukemia) were recorded. Significant differences in lysosomal stability, lysosomal and cytoplasmic unsaturated neutral lipids, lipofuscin deposition, and NADPH–ferrihemoprotein reductase activity in cells of the digestive gland or digestive tubules were generally found in mussels taken throughout the year from Seacrest compared to mussels sampled from Coupeville, consistent with exposure to chemical contaminants. No seasonally influenced suppression of the entire suite of parameters as measures of contaminant exposure was evident. Therefore these biomarkers can be used to evaluate contaminant exposure in mussels throughout the entire year. Received: 16 December 2001/Accepted: 30 May 2002  相似文献   
10.
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