Risk factors of influenza transmission in households.

BACKGROUND: Influenza transmission in households is a subject of renewed interest, as the vaccination of children is currently under debate and antiviral treatments have been approved for prophylactic use. AIMS: To quantify the risk factors of influenza transmission in households. DESIGN OF STUDY: A prospective study conducted during the 1999 to 2000 winter season in France. SETTING: Nine hundred and forty-six households where a member, the index patient, had visited their general practitioner (GP) because of an influenza-like illness were enrolled in the study. Five hundred and ten of the index patients tested positive for influenza A (subtype H3N2). A standardised daily questionnaire allowed for identification of secondary cases of influenza among their household contacts, who were followed-up for 15 days. Of the 395 (77%) households that completed the questionnaire, we selected 279 where no additional cases had occurred on the day of the index patient's visit to the GP. METHODS: Secondary cases of influenza were those household contacts who had developed clinical influenza within 5 days of the disease onset in the index patient. Hazard ratios for individual clinical and demographic characteristics of the contact and their index patient were derived from a Cox regression model. RESULTS: Overall in the 279 households, 131 (24.1%) secondary cases occurred among the 543 household contacts. There was an increased risk of influenza transmission in preschool contacts (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09 to 3.26) as compared with school-age and adult contacts. There was also an increased risk in contacts exposed to preschool index patients (HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.09 to 3.42) and school-age index patients (HR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.07 to 2.65), compared with those exposed to adult index cases. No other factor was associated with transmission of the disease. CONCLUSION: Our results support the major role of children in the dissemination of influenza in households. Vaccination of children or prophylaxis with neuraminidase inhibitors would prevent, respectively, 32-38% and 21-41% of secondary cases caused by exposure to a sick child in the household.     

Impact of alcoholism mortality on the entire population and on the active French population

Starting from the estimation of alcohol assigned deaths in the different causes of death of the CIM, 8th revision, the impact of alcoholism on the active and total french populations is measured using two demographic indices, life expectancy and active life expectancy, and the data of the year 1978. This impact is the same as accidents' one; for men it is more than double of the result obtained when "Alcoholic psychosis and alcoholism" and "Cirrhosis" causes of death are considered alone.     

Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in France

A backcalculation approach allows a reconstruction of the history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in France and predictions of mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) related to the virus. The model uses information from the literature about the natural history of the disease, epidemiological data about infected subjects in three French cohorts, and mortality data from national statistics. It seeks to determine the annual transition probabilities from chronic hepatitis to cirrhosis and the HCV incidence per year in the past. These unknowns are found by fitting the observed deaths from HCC that are attributable to HCV. Optimal values for these unknowns then allow to project the number of HCC deaths attributable to HCV for each year through 2025 (for patients infected before 1996). The model traces the HCV epidemic in France back to around the 1940s. It predicts that HCC mortality related to HCV will continue to increase through 2020 in the absence of treatment, with a 150% increase in the yearly incidence among men and 200% among women. The model also confirms that progression to cirrhosis depends strongly on sex and age. At any age, the annual probability of progression is 10 times greater for men than for women. Moreover, for men aged between 61 and 70 years, this probability is 300 times greater than that for men aged between 21 and 40 years.     

Agreement and discrepancy in the evaluation of normal and diabetic oral glucose tolerance test.

Systematic analysis with a five-hour OGTT of 340 subjects representative of people likely to be examined in a center specialized in diabetes detection was performed by multiple discriminant analysis, which provides indices of discrimination for different sets of blood glucose (BG) values. The relative sensitivity and the relative specificity of six different diagnostic methods: Fajans and Conn, Wikerson, WHO, British Diabetic Association, UGDP, and European Study Group of Diabetes Epidemiology were computed, giving a quantitative determination for the degree of discrepancy in the definition of diabetes: only 48 per cent of the subjects are classified in the same way by any of the diagnostic criteria. The time(s) of sampling and the index or indices of OGTT which are the most efficient in screening diabetes were estimated from homogeneous groups of subjects universally recognized as nondiabetic (URND) or as diabetic (URD) according to the different diagnostic methods. Better discriminating power (DP) between URD and URND compared with the maximum DP as measured by D2 of Mahalanobis from the seven BG values of the OGTT is given by the two-hour (70.2 per cent) than by the one-hour (49.5 per cent) BG value when a single value is used; the one-two-hour BG value is the best set of two times (80.7 per cent). The different indices now in use for the classification of the OGTT have been found less effective than the weighted sum of one-two-hour BG values. The difficulty in obtaining highly specific diagnostic tests is discussed in relation to the consequences on a partly automated screening in large populations.     

Penicillin-resistant pneumococcal meningitis: high antibiotic exposure impedes new vaccine protection

The frequency of meningitis due to penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (PRP) has increased in recent years, making treatment failure more likely. It is currently expected that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines might curb this trend. We investigated this issue using a mathematical model applied to the current prevalence of resistance and antibiotic exposure in the United States and in France. Our main finding was that the level of antibiotic exposure may limit the effect of the vaccine. In relatively low antibiotic exposure environments such as the United States, large-scale vaccination prevents a large part of PRP meningitis cases, whereas in high antibiotic-exposure environments such as France, vaccination alone does not lead to a substantial reduction in PRP meningitis incidence. Our results suggest that antibiotic exposure reduction will remain of primary importance for the control of PRP meningitis despite wide scale use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.     

Real-time comparative monitoring of the A/H1N1 pandemic in France

The clinical burden of the A/H1NI influenza pandemic in the general population is comparable to those of previous seasonal influenza epidemics in terms of total numbers of clinical cases. It is higher in young, and virtually nil in older adults. These assertions can be made safely because of long-established clinical influenza surveillance systems. However, what characterizes this pandemic is that it may kill young patients without known risk factors. Surveillance systems dedicated to the most severely ill patients admitted to intensive care units have been implemented only recently. The present experience strongly supports the view that they should be made perennial.     

A routine tool for detection and assessment of epidemics of influenza-like syndromes in France.

A regression model for the nonepidemic level of influenza-like syndrome has been estimated from the 55,200 cases collected between October 1984 and August 1988 using the French Communicable Diseases Computer Network. The start of a major epidemic in 1988-89 was detected early. The size of the epidemic, for the entire country, was estimated at approximately 4.3 million cases. The excess cost of sick-leave, among those of working age, was estimated at $86 million.     

Estimation of the past and future burden of mortality from mesothelioma in France

OBJECTIVES: Firstly to evaluate future mortality from mesothelioma in France with an age-period-cohort approach and evaluate different hypotheses on risk of mesothelioma for the most recent birth cohort. Secondly to compare the results with a British and an American study. Thirdly to study if any trends were detectable on data for women which would be consistent with the consequences of increasing environmental exposure to asbestos. METHODS: Estimates of mortality from mesothelioma among men and women in France from 1950 to 1995 were based on the analysis of the pleural cancer mortality data coded 163 in the ninth revision of the international classification of diseases (ICD-9). Correction factors were used to derive the mortality from mesothelioma from these data, based on two regional registries. The analysis of the past mortality data has been performed by an age-cohort model (with a maximum likelihood technique). Predictions of deaths from mesothelioma over the next 50 years were based on four different assumptions on the risk of death from mesothelioma in future birth cohorts. RESULTS: The predicted lifetime probability of dying from mesothelioma increases until the last birth cohort 1964-8 among men whereas it decreases strongly from the 1954-8 birth cohort among women. The projected numbers of deaths from mesothelioma in France until 2020 are similar, whichever hypothesis is considered: around 20,000 deaths from mesothelioma might occur among men and 2900 among women from 1996 to 2020. CONCLUSIONS: French data show an increasing lifetime probability of death from mesothelioma in the more recent male cohorts. Although the mortality burden can be predicted until 2020, and is intermediate between the United Kingdom and United States estimates, there is still high uncertainty on the figures after 2020. No increase is found in women, and this does not support the hypothesis that current environmental exposure to asbestos could be associated with a detectable risk of death. Specific surveillance should be set up to monitor future trends or their absence.