预测年轻乳腺癌患者生存率列线图的建立和验证

目的:构建预测年轻乳腺癌患者生存情况的列线图，以期帮助临床诊疗。方法:收集SEER数据库中5 525例年轻乳腺癌患者的临床信息，通过单因素Log-rank检验和多因素Cox生存分析筛选出独立预后因素,用于构建预测患者3、5年总生存率(overall survival,OS)和癌症特异性生存率（cancer special survival,CSS)的列线图，将我院就诊的147例年轻乳腺癌患者作为验证集进行外部验证。结果:单因素和多因素分析结果显示，种族、病理类型、组织学分级、T分期、N分期、M分期、ER状态、HER-2状态、手术方式是与患者OS和CSS相关的独立危险因素，将这些因素纳入并建立预测患者OS和CSS的列线图模型。内部和外部验证结果显示模型具有良好的预测性能。基于建立的OS和CSS列线图模型对患者进行了风险分层，能够准确地将年轻乳腺癌患者分成预后有显著差异的三个风险亚组。结论:本研究构建的预测模型能较为准确的预测年轻乳腺癌患者的预后情况，为临床的诊疗提供科学依据。     

Assessing the Effects of Geniculate Artery Embolization in a Nonsurgical Animal Model of Osteoarthritis

PurposeTo create a nonsurgical animal model of osteoarthritis (OA) to evaluate the effects of embolotherapy during geniculate artery embolization (GAE).Materials and MethodsFluoroscopy-guided injections of 700 mg of sodium monoiodoacetate were performed into the left stifle in 6 rams. Kinematic data were collected before and after induction. At 10 weeks after induction, Subjects 1 and 4–6 underwent magnetic resonance (MR) imaging with dynamic contrast enhancement (DCE) and Subjects 1, 3, and 4–6 underwent angiography with angiographic scoring to identify regions with greatest disease severity for superselective embolization (75–250-μm microspheres). Target vessel size was measured. At 24 weeks after angiography, DCE-MR imaging, angiography, and euthanasia were performed, and bilateral stifles were harvested. Medial/lateral tibial and femoral condylar, patellar, and synovial samples were cut, preserved, decalcified, and scored using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International criteria. The stifle and synovium Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score and Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study score were determined. The volume transfer constant (K_trans) and extracellular volume fraction (v_e) were calculated from DCE-MR imaging along the lateral synovial regions of interest.ResultsThe mean gross and microscopic pathological scores were elevated at 38 and 61, respectively. Mean synovitis score was elevated at 9.2. Mean pre-embolization and postembolization angiographic scores were 5 and 3.8, respectively. Mean superior, transverse, and inferior geniculate artery diameters were 3.1 mm ± 1.21, 2.0 mm ± 0.50, and 1.6 mm ± 0.41 mm, respectively. Mean pre-embolization and postembolization cartilage and synovitis scores were elevated at 35.13 and 73.3 and 5.5 and 9.2, respectively. The K_trans/v_e values of Subjects 4, 5, and 6 were elevated at 0.049/0.38, 0.074/0.53, and 0.065/0.51, respectively. Altered gait of the hind limb was observed in all subjects after induction, with reduced joint mobility. No skin necrosis or osteonecrosis was observed.ConclusionsA nonsurgical ovine animal knee OA model was created, which allowed the collection of angiographic, histopathological, MR imaging, and kinematic data to study the effects of GAE.     

前列腺癌早期诊断的研究进展北大核心

前列腺癌(prostate cancer, PCa)是中老年男性常见恶性肿瘤之一,目前尚缺乏有效的晚期癌症治疗方法,因此早期诊断对于降低PCa死亡率至关重要。近年来,较多研究开发出多种新型诊断方法以改善对PCa诊断的准确性,同时避免过度诊疗,但其有效性及实用性尚需进一步验证。本文对目前新型生物标志物、联合成像技术及风险预测模型等的早期诊断技术进行总结,以期为临床研究提供指导作用。     

Estimating Cost-Effectiveness Using Alternative Preference-Based Scores and Within-Trial Methods: Exploring the Dynamics of the Quality-Adjusted Life-Year Using the EQ-5D 5-Level Version and Recovering Quality of Life Utility Index

ObjectivesThis study aimed to explore quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and subsequent cost-effectiveness estimates based on the more physical health–focused EQ-5D 5-level version (EQ-5D-5L) value set for England or cross-walked EQ-5D 3-level version UK value set scores or more mental health recovery-focused Recovering Quality of Life Utility Index (ReQoL-UI), when using alternative within-trial statistical methods. We describe possible reasons for the different QALY estimates based on the interaction between item scores, health state profiles, preference-based scores, and mathematical and statistical methods chosen.MethodsQALYs are calculated over 8 weeks from a case study 2:1 (intervention:control) randomized controlled trial in patients with anxiety or depression. Complete case and with missing cases imputed using multiple-imputation analyses are conducted, using unadjusted and regression baseline-adjusted QALYs. Cost-effectiveness is judged using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and acceptability curves. We use previously established psychometric results to reflect on estimated QALYs.ResultsA total of 361 people (241:120) were randomized. EQ-5D-5L crosswalk produced higher incremental QALYs than the value set for England or ReQoL-UI, which produced similar unadjusted QALYs, but contrasting baseline-adjusted QALYs. Probability of cost-effectiveness <£30 000 per QALY ranged from 6% (complete case ReQoL-UI baseline-adjusted QALYs) to 64.3% (multiple-imputation EQ-5D-5L crosswalk unadjusted QALYs). The control arm improved more on average than the intervention arm on the ReQoL-UI, a result not mirrored on the EQ-5D-5L nor condition-specific (Patient-Health Questionnaire-9, depression; Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, anxiety) measures.ConclusionsReQoL-UI produced contradictory cost-effectiveness results relative to the EQ-5D-5L. The EQ-5D-5L’s better responsiveness and “anxiety/depression” and “usual activities” items drove the incremental QALY results. The ReQoL-UI’s single physical health item and “personal recovery” construct may have influenced its lower 8-week incremental QALY estimates in this patient sample.