Redefining “low risk”: Outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement in low-risk patients in the transcatheter aortic valve replacement era

ObjectivesGuidelines suggest aortic valve replacement (AVR) for low-risk asymptomatic patients. Indications for transcatheter AVR now include low-risk patients, making it imperative to understand state-of-the-art surgical AVR (SAVR) in this population. Therefore, we compared SAVR outcomes in low-risk patients with those expected from Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models and assessed their intermediate-term survival.MethodsFrom January 2005 to January 2017, 3493 isolated SAVRs were performed in 3474 patients with STS predicted risk of mortality <4%. Observed operative mortality and composite major morbidity or mortality were compared with STS-expected outcomes according to calendar year of surgery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for these outcomes. Patients were followed for time-related mortality.ResultsWith 15 observed operative deaths (0.43%) compared with 55 expected (1.6%), the observed:expected ratio was 0.27 for mortality (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14-0.42), stroke 0.65 (95% CI, 0.41-0.89), and reoperation 0.50 (95% CI, 0.42-0.60). Major morbidity or mortality steadily declined, with probabilities of 8.6%, 6.7%, and 5.2% in 2006, 2011, and 2016, respectively, while STS-expected risk remained at approximately 12%. Mitral valve regurgitation, ventricular hypertrophy, pulmonary, renal, and hepatic failure, coronary artery disease, and earlier surgery date were residual risk factors. Survival was 98%, 91%, and 82% at 1, 5, and 9 years, respectively, superior to that predicted for the US age-race-sex–matched population.ConclusionsSTS risk models overestimate contemporary SAVR risk at a high-volume center, supporting efforts to create a more agile quality assessment program. SAVR in low-risk patients provides durable survival benefit, supporting early surgery and providing a benchmark for transcatheter AVR.     

Risk as a pattern over time: Delineation of time-dependent risk factors in biological,psychological, and social variables in cancer patients

Background

Survival in cancer patients is associated with a multitude of biological, social, and psychological factors. Although it is well established that all these factors add to overall mortality, it is not well understood how the predictive power of these parameters changes in a comprehensive model and over time.

Methods

Patients who attended the authors’ outpatient clinic were invited to participate. The authors followed 5180 mixed cancer patients (51.1% female; mean age, 59.1 years [SD = 13.8]) for up to 16 years and analyzed biological (age, sex, cancer site, anemia), psychological (anxiety, depression), and social variables (marital status, education, employment status) potentially predicting overall survival in a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

The median survival time for the entire sample was 4.3 years (95% confidence interval, 4.0–4.7). The overall survival probabilities for 1 and 10 years were 76.8% and 38.0%, respectively. Following an empirical approach, the authors split the time interval into five periods: acute, subacute, short-term, medium-term, and long-term. A complex pattern of variables predicted overall survival differently in the five periods. Biological parameters were important throughout most of the time, social parameters were either time-independent predictors or tended to be more important in the longer term. Of the psychological parameters, only depression was a significant predictor and lost its predictive power in the long-term.

Conclusions

The findings of this study allow the development of comprehensive patient-specific models of risk and resilience factors addressing biopsychosocial needs of cancer patients, paving the way for a personalized treatment plan that goes beyond biomedical cancer care.     

Local economic growth and infant mortality

We estimate the effect of local economic growth on infant mortality. We use geo-referenced data for non-migrating mothers from 46 developing countries and a total of 128 DHS survey rounds and combine it with nighttime luminosity data at a granular level. Using mother fixed effects we show that an increase in local economic activity significantly reduces the probability that the same mother loses a child before its first birthday.     

Impact of Planned Delivery on the Perinatal Outcome of Term Fetuses with Isolated Heart Defects

ObjectivePregnancies complicated by fetal heart defects often undergo a planned delivery prior to term by either induction of labour or cesarean delivery to ensure optimal availability of neonatal care. We aimed to assess whether such planned deliveries achieve their goal of better perinatal care.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective case-control study of pregnancies complicated by isolated fetal cardiac defects, without other fetal comorbidities, managed at a single fetal medicine unit over a 10-year period. Only pregnancies delivered past 37 weeks gestation were included. Patients undergoing elective delivery for care planning reasons only were compared with patients in whom planned delivery was clinically indicated and patients who laboured spontaneously. Obstetric and perinatal outcomes were recorded.ResultsOf the 180 pregnancies included in the study, 59 (32.8%) were in the elective group, 49 (27.2%), in the indicated group, and 72 (40%), in the spontaneous group. Mean gestational age at delivery was 39.0 ± 1.1 weeks overall and did not differ between the groups. For the elective group, only 35.6% of deliveries occurred during office hours, which was similar to the 2 other groups. The rate of adverse obstetric or postnatal outcomes was not statistically significantly different between groups.ConclusionTimed delivery at term does not seem to be associated with an increased risk of poor perinatal outcomes. It may improve perinatal care by providing proximity to a neonatal intensive care unit and convenience for patients and providers.     

Prediction of all-cause mortality with malnutrition assessed by nutritional screening and assessment tools in patients with heart failure：a systematic review

Background and aimsIn the absence of a gold standard or scientific consensus regarding the nutritional evaluation of heart failure (HF) patients, this study aimed to summarize and systematically evaluate the prognostic value of nutritional screening and assessment tools used for all-cause mortality in HF patients.Methods and resultsRelevant studies were retrieved from major databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), WanFang Data, and China Biology Medicine disc (CMB)) and searched from the earliest available date until July 2021. If three or more studies used the same tool, meta-analysis using RevMan 5.3 was performed. This systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (number CRD42021275575). A total of 36 articles involving 25,141 HF patients were included for qualitative analysis and 31 studies for quantitative analysis. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated, poor nutritional status evaluated by using 5 nutritional screening tools (Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), Controlling Nutritional Status Score (CONUT), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), and Short Form Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF)) or 2 nutritional assessment tools (the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and Generated Subjective Global Assessment (SGA)) predicted all-cause mortality in HF patients. Of all tools analyzed, MNA had the maximum HR for mortality [HR = 2.62, 95%CI 1.11–6.20, P = 0.03] and MNA-SF [HR = 1.94, 95%CI 1.40–2.70, P＜0.001] was the best nutritional screening tools.ConclusionPoor nutritional status predicted all-cause mortality in HF patients. MNA may be the best nutritional assessment tool, and MNA-SF is most recommended for HF patient nutritional screening. The application value of MNA, especially in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), needs to be further confirmed. The clinical application value of Mini-Nutrition Assessment Special for Heart Failure (MNA-HF) and Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) in HF patients needs to be confirmed.     

The American Cancer Society 2035 challenge goal on cancer mortality reduction

A summary evaluation of the 2015 American Cancer Society (ACS) challenge goal showed that overall US mortality from all cancers combined declined 26% over the period from 1990 to 2015. Recent research suggests that US cancer mortality can still be lowered considerably by applying known interventions broadly and equitably. The ACS Board of Directors, therefore, commissioned ACS researchers to determine challenge goals for reductions in cancer mortality by 2035. A statistical model was used to estimate the average annual percent decline in overall cancer death rates among the US general population and among college-educated Americans during the most recent period. Then, the average annual percent decline in the overall cancer death rates of college graduates was applied to the death rates in the general population to project future rates in the United States beginning in 2020. If overall cancer death rates from 2020 through 2035 nationally decline at the pace of those of college graduates, then death rates in 2035 in the United States will drop by 38.3% from the 2015 level and by 54.4% from the 1990 level. On the basis of these results, the ACS 2035 challenge goal was set as a 40% reduction from the 2015 level. Achieving this goal could lead to approximately 1.3 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred from 2020 through 2035 and 122,500 fewer cancer deaths in 2035 alone. The results also show that reducing the prevalence of risk factors and achieving optimal adherence to evidence-based screening guidelines by 2025 could lead to a 33.5% reduction in the overall cancer death rate by 2035, attaining 85% of the challenge goal.