Optimal Respiratory Syncytial Virus intervention programmes using Nirsevimab in England and Wales

IntroductionRespiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI) in infants. There are no licensed vaccines and only one monoclonal antibody available to protect infants from disease. A new and potentially longer-lasting monoclonal antibody, Nirsevimab, showed promising results in phase IIb/III trials. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nirsevimab intervention programmes in England and Wales.MethodsWe used a dynamic model for RSV transmission, calibrated to data from England and Wales. We considered a suite of potential Nirsevimab programmes, including administration to all neonates (year-round); only neonates born during the RSV season (seasonal); or neonates born during the RSV season plus infants less than six months old before the start of the RSV season (seasonal + catch-up).ResultsIf administered seasonally to all infants at birth, we found that Nirsevimab would have to be priced at £63 or less per dose for at least 50% certainty that it could cost-effectively replace the current Palivizumab programme, using an ICER threshold of £20,000/QALY. An extended seasonal programme which includes a pre-season catch-up becomes the optimal strategy at a purchasing price of £32/dose or less for at least 50% certainty. At a purchasing price per dose of £5-32, the annual implementation costs of a seasonal programme could be as high as £2 million before a switch to a year-round strategy would be optimal.DiscussionNirsevimab has the potential to be cost-effective in England and Wales not only for use in high-risk infants.     

Attenuation Coefficient Estimation of Normal Placentas

Attenuation coefficient estimation has the potential to be a useful tool for placental tissue characterization. A current challenge is the presence of inhomogeneities in biological tissue that result in a large variance in the attenuation coefficient estimate (ACE), restricting its clinical utility. In this work, we propose a new Attenuation Estimation Region Of Interest (AEROI) selection method for computing the ACE based on the (i) envelope signal-to-noise ratio deviation and (ii) coefficient of variation of the transmit pulse bandwidth. The method was first validated on a tissue-mimicking phantom, for which an 18%–21% reduction in the standard deviation of ACE and a 14%–24% reduction in the ACE error, expressed as a percentage of reported ACE, were obtained. A study on 59 post-delivery clinically normal placentas was then performed. The proposed AEROI selection method reduced the intra-subject standard deviation of ACE from 0.72 to 0.39 dB/cm/MHz. The measured ACE of 59 placentas was 0.77 ± 0.37 dB/cm/MHz, which establishes a baseline for future studies on placental tissue characterization.     

行为决策的评估理论构建研究

本研究构建了行为决策的评估理论,揭示人类行为发生、发展和改变的规律,为开展健康相关行为干预提供科学依据。本理论认为,所有的人类行为都是个体为了生存和发展,在对内、外部刺激进行评估后所做出的主动反应。个体以基因遗传、自我图式、群体规范和直觉为参照系,对内、外部刺激的重要性、安全性威胁和获益性,以及个体所拥有的行为资源进行感觉性评估和社会性评估,用以做出生理性反应和社会性行为决策,并通过感受器、中枢神经和效应器,形成“刺激-评估-行为决策-行为”循环。开展行为干预时,应通过与个体进行讨论和分析,帮助其发现和确认刺激的重要性、安全性、获益性及其拥有的行为资源。     

Easy Words: Reference Resolution in a Malevolent Referent World

This article describes early stages in the acquisition of a first vocabulary by infants and young children. It distinguishes two major stages, the first of which operates by a stand‐alone word‐to‐world pairing procedure and the second of which, using the evidence so acquired, builds a domain‐specific syntax‐sensitive structure‐to‐world pairing procedure. As we show, the first stage of learning is slow, restricted in character, and to some extent errorful, whereas the second procedure is determinative, rapid, and essentially errorless. Our central claim here is that the early, referentially based learning procedure succeeds at all because it is reined in by attention‐focusing properties of word‐to‐world timing and related indicants of referential intent.     

Deriving reference values for nerve conduction studies from existing data using mixture model clustering

Objective: to obtain locally valid reference values (RVs) from existing nerve conduction study (NCS) data.Methods: we used age, sex, height and limb temperature-based mixture model clustering (MMC) to identify normal and abnormal measurements on NCS data from two university hospitals. We compared MMC-derived RVs to published data; examined the effect of using different variables; validated MMC-derived RVs using independent data from 26 healthy control subjects and investigated their clinical applicability for the diagnosis of polyneuropathy.Results: MMC-derived RVs were similar to published RVs. Clustering can be achieved using only sex and age as variables. MMC is likely to yield reliable results with fewer abnormal than normal measurements and when the total number of measurements is at least 300. Measurements from healthy controls fell within the 95% MMC-derived prediction interval in 97.4% of cases.Conclusions: MMC can be used to obtain RVs from existing data, providing a locally valid, accurate reflection of the (ab)normality of an NCS result.Significance: MMC can be used to generate locally valid RVs for any test for which sufficient data are available.¹