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1.
目的 针对2021年3月末瑞丽市COVID-19疫情暴发,本研究应用更新方程模拟COVID-19在瑞丽市的传播过程,快速测算其传播的流行病学参数传播序列间隔(SI)、再生数(R)及其在加强防控措施干预下的变化,为边境地区疫情防控策略提供科学依据。方法 收集官方网站公布的2021年3月30日至4月16日瑞丽市的病例信息,用Excel 2019软件进行流行病学分析,使用R 4.0.5软件建立更新方程模型,用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法(MCMC)采样计算各参数值的中位数与95%置信区间,对不同索引病例情况下疫情发展进行预测,研究疫情防控政策执行效果。结果 2021年3月30日至4月16日,瑞丽市累计报告确诊病例90例,无症状感染者43例,共133例,其中19例无症状感染者转为确诊病例,确诊病例和无症状感染者的年龄中位数分别为32、28岁。通过模型得到SI中位数约为5.00(95%CI: 4.22~7.31)天,标准差中位数约为24.67(95%CI: 12.05~27.91)天; 在疫情暴发较早阶段,再生数R约为1.42(95%CI: 1.31~1.80),加强防控措施后1周内,R下降至0.58(95%CI: 0.07~0.72),位于临界值1.0以下; 模型预测4月17日以后,每天新增感染者数量≤1例。结论 在合理推测索引病例的前提下,更新方程模型能较好地拟合疫情数据,其预测瑞丽市的疫情将在短时间内得到控制。瑞丽市的防控措施和经验可为类似边境地区的防疫工作提供有益借鉴。  相似文献   
2.
目的 分析2005—2020年盐城市丙肝病例报告资料,总结丙肝流行特征,为盐城市丙肝防制工作提供参考依据。方法 收集各年度丙肝报告病例和人口学资料,采用Excel 2016软件汇总并作描述性统计分析。采用Joinpoint regression program(JRP)4.9.0.0软件对丙肝年发病率进行趋势检验,采用SPSS 25.0软件和ArcGIS 10.6软件对病例数据进行统计分析。结果 2005—2020年盐城市累计报告丙肝病例2 555例,年报告发病率整体呈平缓增长趋势,最低为2005年的0.42/10万,最高为2019年的5.84/10万。年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)为14.5% (95% CI: 11.5%~17.6%),P<0.01。除2019年外,其余各年丙肝疫情呈散发状态,无明显季节特征。报告病例数位居前三位的地区是亭湖区、滨海县以及东台市,分别占比19.77% (505/2 555)、14.01%(358/2 555)以及12.92%(330/2 555)。男女报告病例数比为1.33[DK]∶1,发病率最高的年龄组为70~79岁年龄组(56.94/10万)。农民为报告病例数最多的人群,占比59.33%(1 516/2 555)。确诊病例2 204例,临床诊断病例332例。结论 盐城市丙肝疫情呈上升趋势。全市应进一步扩大丙型肝炎病毒检测,加强丙肝防治宣传教育和完善社会医疗保障政策来提高丙肝治疗的可及性和可负担性,同时应进一步加强对于丙肝疫情的监测以及规范丙肝的诊疗,并对重点地区、重点人群开展精准的综合干预工作。  相似文献   
3.
Asia is ageing fast. To develop more effective health promotion initiatives among older adults, more knowledge of the environmental correlates of physical activity is needed. However, research in this age group is rare, and most existing studies have been conducted within Western contexts. The present study explores the interaction effects of objective neighbourhood environment and satisfaction with neighbourhood environment on leisure-time physical activity in older adults in Beijing, China. This study follows a cross-sectional design and involves older adults aged 65 years and over. The questionnaire was collected in 2018 and 2,061 older adults living in Yanshan, Beijing, China were included in the analysis. Linear regression was applied to examine the effects. The findings show that residents who live in places with higher levels of walkability, or those who are more satisfied with neighbourhood environment (either path/road/street condition or recreational resources) spent significantly longer participating in leisure-time physical activity. However, the objective neighbourhood accessibility of recreational resources was not a significant factor of physical activity. Satisfaction with neighbourhood recreational resources can significantly moderate the relationship between objective neighbourhood accessibility of recreational resources and leisure-time physical activity respectively. This is the first study conducted in China examining the relationships between objective neighbourhood environment, satisfaction with neighbourhood environment and leisure-time physical activity among older adults. This study may have implications for urban planning and service provision planning. The design of built environments that considers quality rather than only quantity can play a significant role in improving older adults' leisure-time physical activity.  相似文献   
4.
Urban green space is demonstrated to benefit human health. We evaluated whether neighborhood gentrification status matters when considering the health benefits of green space, and whether the benefits are received equitably across racial and socioeconomic groups. Greater exposure to active green space was significantly associated with lower odds of reporting fair or poor health, but only for those living in gentrifying neighborhoods. In gentrifying neighborhoods, only those with high education or high incomes benefited from neighborhood active green space. Structural interventions, such as new green space, should be planned and evaluated within the context of urban social inequity and change.  相似文献   
5.
6.
Modern means of transport will play a significant role in the smart city. In the automotive industry, high-strength steels such as Docol are employed more often. This kind of material is relatively not very well weldable. The main reason is related to the Heat Affect Zone, the region in which cracks occur. Another disadvantage is connected with differences in values of ultimate strength of parent and weld material. The differences can be diminished using the correct welding process, which employs nickel and molybdenum electrode wires at much lower sulfur content. The weld metal deposit contains mainly martensite and bainite with coarse ferrite, while the parent material contains mainly martensite and rather fine ferrite. New technology, micro-jet cooling after the joining process enables to obtain the microstructure of weld metal deposit at acceptable parameters. Welding with micro-jet cooling could be treated as a very promising welding Docol steels process with high industrial application. Results of non-destructive inspections on macro samples corresponded with further destructive test results (tensile strength, hardness, fatigue, metallographic structure analyses). This article aims to verify fatigue behavior of Docol 1200 M steel after welding supported by the cooling using the micro-jet technique. For the first time, micro-jet cooling was used to weld this kind of steel to check the mechanical properties of the joint, especially to determine the fatigue limit. This study is formulated as follows: investigating fatigue resistance of the Docol 1200 M weld manufactured at the cooling process with micro-jets. The joints were produced in the MAG (Metal Active Gas) technology modified by micro-jet cooling. The results collected in the fatigue test were processed in the form of the Wöhler’s S–N diagram following the fatigue limit of the weld examined. All data have indicated the possibility of obtaining a new method of welded joints with high fatigue limit minimum of 480 MPa. It could be important to achieve a tensile strength of 700 MPa while maintaining the best relative elongation at the level of the base material.  相似文献   
7.
目的 构建城市居家老年人宜老环境自我报告评估指标,为了解城市老年人居家环境的质量水平和相关服务需求提供评价工具.方法 以世界卫生组织老年友好城市指南作为理论框架,在文献回顾和质性访谈的基础上形成草稿.采用德尔菲法对20名专家进行2轮咨询.结果 2轮专家咨询问卷有效回收率分别为90.91%、90.00%;第2轮专家咨询的权威系数为0.865,专家意见协调系数为0.305~0.671;最终确定的指标体系包括户外空间和建筑、交通、家庭住宅、社会交往和参与、社区服务和信息与通讯6项一级指标,84项二级指标.结论 城市居家老年人宜老环境自我报告评估指标有较好的专家认可度,可作为评价中国城市居家老年人环境质量的工具.  相似文献   
8.
目的:分析益阳市基层医疗机构门诊处方行为及影响因素,并对其行为进行综合评价,为提高合理用药水平提供科学依据。方法:采用多阶段随机抽样的方法,随机抽取益阳市21家基层医疗机构,每家机构每月随机抽取15张处方,一年共3 780张,逐一登记处方信息,分析评价处方行为。结果:每张处方平均用药种数和注射剂处方百分率超过国际标准。未成年患者多重用药、抗生素、激素和注射剂处方使用率较高,女性患者基本药物使用率较高,夏、秋季抗生素、激素使用率较高,乡镇卫生院多重用药、抗生素、注射剂和基本药物使用率较高,皮肤和皮下组织疾病多重用药处方使用率较高,呼吸系统疾病抗生素、激素和静脉注射处方使用率较高。大部分基层医疗机构合理用药水平为中上等。结论:益阳市基层医疗机构处方合理用药水平整体较好,但仍面临每张处方平均用药品种数和注射剂处方百分率超过国际标准的双重挑战,基层医师应严格规范处方用药行为。  相似文献   
9.
目的:调查鹤山市3~6岁儿童单纯性肥胖症情况,探究相关干预对策对减少儿童单纯性肥胖症发生的效果。方法2013年2~6月,从鹤山市不同区域抽取4所规模较大的幼儿园,在这4所幼儿园中随机选取3~6岁儿童1500例作为研究对象,根据相关肥胖标准筛选出单纯性肥胖症儿童240例,将其将其随机分成对照组和干预组,各120例。对照组不给予干预措施,干预组给予相关干预措施。结果单纯性肥胖症检出率为16.0%(240/1500)。男童单纯性肥胖症的检出率(9.4%)明显高于女童(6.6%)(P<0.05)。5~6岁组的单纯性肥胖症检出率明显高于3~4岁组(P<0.05)。干预组干预后的单纯性肥胖症检出率明显低于对照组(P<0.05)。结论加强心理和行为干预、改变儿童的饮食习惯、加强体育锻炼等多种干预措施能有效预防和减少儿童肥胖症的发生,效果显著。  相似文献   
10.
PurposeThe purpose of this study was to examine a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and depression among the elderly in South Korea.ResultsAUDIT total score were found to exert linear and quadratic effects that were significantly associated with higher depression scores among sample respondents. The results lend support to a J-shaped relationship between alcohol use and depression, wherein abstainers and problem drinkers were at a higher risk of depression.ConclusionThis study confirms a J-shaped (i.e., curvilinear) relationship between alcohol consumption and depression among elderly South Koreans, similar to that frequently found in studies of Western-based samples. The findings of this study, therefore, imply the applicability of the J-shaped relationship hypothesis for non-Western society samples and within different cultural contexts.  相似文献   
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