Bayesian consensus clustering for multivariate longitudinal data

In clinical and epidemiological studies, there is a growing interest in studying the heterogeneity among patients based on longitudinal characteristics to identify subtypes of the study population. Compared to clustering a single longitudinal marker, simultaneously clustering multiple longitudinal markers allow additional information to be incorporated into the clustering process, which reveals co-existing longitudinal patterns and generates deeper biological insight. In the current study, we propose a Bayesian consensus clustering (BCC) model for multivariate longitudinal data. Instead of arriving at a single overall clustering, the proposed model allows each marker to follow marker-specific local clustering and these local clusterings are aggregated to find a global (consensus) clustering. To estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters, a Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed. We apply our proposed model to the primary biliary cirrhosis study to identify patient subtypes that may be associated with their prognosis. We also perform simulation studies to compare the clustering performance between the proposed model and existing models under several scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed BCC model serves as a useful tool for clustering multivariate longitudinal data.     

Neural selectivity,efficiency, and dose equivalence in deep brain stimulation through pulse width tuning and segmented electrodes

BackgroundAchieving deep brain stimulation (DBS) dose equivalence is challenging, especially with pulse width tuning and directional contacts. Further, the precise effects of pulse width tuning are unknown, and recent reports of the effects of pulse width tuning on neural selectivity are at odds with classic biophysical studies.MethodsWe created multicompartment neuron models for two axon diameters and used finite element modeling to determine extracellular influence from standard and segmented electrodes. We analyzed axon activation profiles and calculated volumes of tissue activated.ResultsWe find that long pulse widths focus the stimulation effect on small, nearby fibers, suppressing distant white matter tract activation (responsible for some DBS side effects) and improving battery utilization when equivalent activation is maintained for small axons. Directional leads enable similar benefits to a greater degree. Reexamining previous reports of short pulse stimulation reducing side effects, we explore a possible alternate explanation: non-dose equivalent stimulation may have resulted in reduced spread of neural activation. Finally, using internal capsule avoidance as an example in the context of subthalamic stimulation, we present a patient-specific model to show how long pulse widths could help increase the biophysical therapeutic window.DiscussionWe find agreement with classic studies and predict that long pulse widths may focus the stimulation effect on small, nearby fibers and improve power consumption. While future pre-clinical and clinical work is necessary regarding pulse width tuning, it is clear that future studies must ensure dose equivalence, noting that energy- and charge-equivalent amplitudes do not result in equivalent spread of neural activation when changing pulse width.     

Integrating in vitro testing and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling for chemical liver toxicity assessment—A case study of troglitazone

In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) for next-generation risk assessment (NGRA) of chemicals requires computational modeling and faces unique challenges. Using mitochondria-related toxicity data of troglitazone (TGZ), a prototype drug known for liver toxicity, from HepaRG, HepG2, HC-04, and primary human hepatocytes, we explored inherent uncertainties in IVIVE, including cell models, cellular response endpoints, and dose metrics. A human population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for TGZ was developed to predict in vivo doses from in vitro point-of-departure (POD) concentrations. Compared to the 200–800 mg/d dose range of TGZ where liver injury was observed clinically, the predicted POD doses for the mean and top one percentile of the PBPK population were 28–372 and 15–178 mg/d respectively based on C_max dosimetry, and 185–2552 and 83–1010 mg/d respectively based on AUC. In conclusion, although with many uncertainties, integrating in vitro assays and PBPK modeling is promising in informing liver toxicity-inducing TGZ doses.     

Cardiac-type total anomalous pulmonary venous return is not benign

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to investigate the association between morphological variation and postsurgical pulmonary vein (PV) stenosis (PPVS) in patients with cardiac total anomalous pulmonary venous connection (TAPVC).MethodsThis single-center, retrospective study included 168 pediatric patients who underwent surgical repair of cardiac TAPVC from 2013 to 2019 (connection to the coronary sinus [CS], n = 136; connection directly to the right atrium [RA], n = 32). Three-dimensional computed tomography modeling and geometric analysis were performed to investigate the morphological features; their relevance to the PPVS was examined.ResultsThe connection type had no association with PPVS (CS type: 18% vs right atrial type: 19%; P = .89) but there was a higher incidence of PPVS in patients with a single PV orifice than > 1 orifice (P < .001). Confluence-to-total PV area ratio (hazard ratio, 4.78, 95% CI, 1.86-12.32; P = .001) and length of drainage route (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31; P < .001) had a 4- and 1-fold increase in the risk for PPVS in the CS type after adjustment for age and preoperative pulmonary venous obstruction. In the right atrial type, those with anomalous PV return to the RA roof were more likely to develop PPVS than to the posterior wall of the RA (P < .001).ConclusionsThe number of inter-junction PV orifice correlated with PPVS development in cardiac TAPVC. The confluence-to-total PV ratio, length of drainage route, and anomalous PV return to the RA roof are important predictors for PPVS. Morphological subcategorization in this clinical setting can potentially assist in surgical decision-making.     

Challenges with Forecasting Budget Impact: A Case Study of Six ICER Reports

Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Temperature-controlled power modulation compensates for heterogeneous nanoparticle distributions: a computational optimization analysis for magnetic hyperthermia

Purpose: To study, with computational models, the utility of power modulation to reduce tissue temperature heterogeneity for variable nanoparticle distributions in magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia.

Methods: Tumour and surrounding tissue were modeled by elliptical two- and three-dimensional computational phantoms having six different nanoparticle distributions. Nanoparticles were modeled as point heat sources having amplitude-dependent loss power. The total number of nanoparticles was fixed, and their spatial distribution and heat output were varied. Heat transfer was computed by solving the Pennes’ bioheat equation using finite element methods (FEM) with temperature-dependent blood perfusion. Local temperature was regulated using a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller. Tissue temperature, thermal dose and tissue damage were calculated. The required minimum thermal dose delivered to the tumor was kept constant, and heating power was adjusted for comparison of both the heating methods.

Results: Modulated power heating produced lower and more homogeneous temperature distributions than did constant power heating for all studied nanoparticle distributions. For a concentrated nanoparticle distribution, located off-center within the tumor, the maximum temperatures inside the tumor were 16% lower for modulated power heating when compared to constant power heating. This resulted in less damage to surrounding normal tissue. Modulated power heating reached target thermal doses up to nine-fold more rapidly when compared to constant power heating.

Conclusions: Controlling the temperature at the tumor-healthy tissue boundary by modulating the heating power of magnetic nanoparticles demonstrably compensates for a variable nanoparticle distribution to deliver effective treatment.     

Derivation of internal dose-based thresholds of toxicological concern for occupational inhalation exposure to systemically acting organic chemicals

This study aimed at deriving occupational thresholds of toxicological concern for inhalation exposure to systemically-acting organic chemicals using predicted internal doses. The latter were also used to evaluate the quantitative relationship between occupational exposure limit and internal dose. Three internal dose measures were identified for investigation: (i) the daily area under the venous blood concentration vs. time curve, (ii) the daily rate of the amount of parent chemical metabolized, and (iii) the maximum venous blood concentration at the end of an 8-hr work shift. A dataset of 276 organic chemicals with 8-hr threshold limit values-time-weighted average was compiled along with their molecular structure and Cramer classes (Class I: low toxicity, Class II: intermediate toxicity, Class III: suggestive of significant toxicity). Using a human physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model, the three identified dose metrics were predicted for an 8-hr occupational inhalation exposure to the threshold limit value for each chemical. Distributional analyses of the predicted dose metrics were performed to identify the percentile values corresponding to the occupational thresholds of toxicological concern. Also, simple linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between the 8-hr threshold limit value and each of the predicted dose metrics, respectively. No threshold of toxicological concern could be derived for class II due to few chemicals. Based on the daily rate of the amount of parent chemical metabolized, the proposed internal dose-based occupational thresholds of toxicological concern were 5.61?×?10^?2 and 9?×?10^?4 mmol/d at the 10th percentile level for classes I and III, respectively, while they were 4.55?×?10^?1 and 8.5?×?10^?3 mmol/d at the 25th percentile level. Even though high and significant correlations were observed between the 8-hr threshold limit values and the predicted dose metrics, the one with the rate of the amount of chemical metabolized was remarkable regardless of the Cramer class (r² = 0.81; n = 276). The proposed internal dose-based occupational thresholds of toxicological concern are potentially useful for screening-level assessments as well as prioritization within an integrated occupational risk assessment framework.     

Validation of PATHFx 2.0: An open-source tool for estimating survival in patients undergoing pathologic fracture fixation

Treatment decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease rely on accurate survival estimation. We developed the original PATHFx models using expensive, proprietary software and now seek to provide a more cost-effective solution. Using open-source machine learning software to create PATHFx version 2.0, we asked whether PATHFx 2.0 could be created using open-source methods and externally validated in two unique patient populations. The training set of a well-characterized, database records of 189 patients and the bnlearn package within R Version 3.5.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing), was used to establish a series of Bayesian belief network models designed to predict survival at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Each was externally validated in both a Scandinavian (n = 815 patients) and a Japanese (n = 261 patients) data set. Brier scores and receiver operating characteristic curves to assessed discriminatory ability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated whether models should be used clinically. DCA showed that the model should be used clinically at all time points in the Scandinavian data set. For the 1-month time point, DCA of the Japanese data set suggested to expect better outcomes assuming all patients will survive greater than 1 month. Brier scores for each curve demonstrate that the models are accurate at each time point. Statement of Clinical Significance: we successfully transitioned to PATHFx 2.0 using open-source software and externally validated it in two unique patient populations, which can be used as a cost-effective option to guide surgical decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease.