预测年轻乳腺癌患者生存率列线图的建立和验证

目的:构建预测年轻乳腺癌患者生存情况的列线图，以期帮助临床诊疗。方法:收集SEER数据库中5 525例年轻乳腺癌患者的临床信息，通过单因素Log-rank检验和多因素Cox生存分析筛选出独立预后因素,用于构建预测患者3、5年总生存率(overall survival,OS)和癌症特异性生存率（cancer special survival,CSS)的列线图，将我院就诊的147例年轻乳腺癌患者作为验证集进行外部验证。结果:单因素和多因素分析结果显示，种族、病理类型、组织学分级、T分期、N分期、M分期、ER状态、HER-2状态、手术方式是与患者OS和CSS相关的独立危险因素，将这些因素纳入并建立预测患者OS和CSS的列线图模型。内部和外部验证结果显示模型具有良好的预测性能。基于建立的OS和CSS列线图模型对患者进行了风险分层，能够准确地将年轻乳腺癌患者分成预后有显著差异的三个风险亚组。结论:本研究构建的预测模型能较为准确的预测年轻乳腺癌患者的预后情况，为临床的诊疗提供科学依据。     

前列腺癌早期诊断的研究进展北大核心

前列腺癌(prostate cancer, PCa)是中老年男性常见恶性肿瘤之一,目前尚缺乏有效的晚期癌症治疗方法,因此早期诊断对于降低PCa死亡率至关重要。近年来,较多研究开发出多种新型诊断方法以改善对PCa诊断的准确性,同时避免过度诊疗,但其有效性及实用性尚需进一步验证。本文对目前新型生物标志物、联合成像技术及风险预测模型等的早期诊断技术进行总结,以期为临床研究提供指导作用。     

Risk prediction of common bile duct stone recurrence based on new common bile duct morphological subtypes

Stones in the common bile duct (CBD) are reported worldwide, and this condition is majorly managed through endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). CBD stone recurrence is an important issue after endoscopic stone removal. Therefore, it is essential to identify its risk factors to determine the necessity of regular follow-up in patients who underwent endoscopic removal of CBD stones. The authors identified that the S and polyline morphological subtypes of CBD were associated with increased stone recurrence. New morphological subtypes of CBD presented by the authors can be important risk predictors of recurrence after endoscopic stone removal. Furthermore, the new morphological subtypes of CBD may predict the risk of residual CBD stones or technical difficulty in CBD stone removal. Further studies with a large sample size and longer follow-up durations are warranted to examine the usefulness of the newly identified morphological subtypes of CBD in predicting the outcomes of ERCP for CBD stone removal.     

Gynecologic Malignancy-Associated Venous Thromboembolism and Predictive Tool at Thammasat University Hospital

Objectives: Aims were to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in gynecologic malignancy cases. Value of screening tool (Caprini) for prediction of VTE was also assessed. Study design: A retrospective study of gynecologic malignancy subjects who underwent major gynecological operation via exploratory laparotomy at Thammasat University Hospital, Pathum Thani, Thailand from January 2015 to December 2020. Participants were categorized into VTE and non-VTE groups. Caprini score, associated laboratory and clinical factors of both groups were evaluated. Results: A total of 392 subjects were recruited into the study. Prevalence of VTE was 7.4 (29/392) percent. VTE was diagnosed in subjects with endometrial, ovarian and cervical cancer at percentage of 7.8 (15/192), 7.9 (11/138) and 5.7 (3/53), respectively. Demographic characters of both groups were comparable. VTE group had significant more Caprini score, platelets count and platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) than non-VTE group. Modified Caprini score (2 multiply Caprini score plus 1 multiply PLR) was generated for better VTE prediction. Sensitivity and specificity of Caprini (≥5.5) and modified Caprini scores (≥22.8) were 72.4 vs 39.4, and 79.3 vs 52.1 percent, respectively. Conclusion: Prevalence of VTE among gynecologic malignancy cases was 7.4 percent. The modified Caprini score was an alternative VTE predictive tool. Cut-off point of modified Caprini score at equal or more than 22.8 was proposed.     

川崎病静脉注射丙种球蛋白无反应预测模型研究现状

川崎病(Kawasaki disease，KD)是一种急性自身免疫性系统性血管炎，是发达国家儿童获得性心脏病的主要病因。KD最严重的后果是冠状动脉病变(coronary artery lesions，CALs)，与KD的预后相关。临床研究证实静脉注射丙种球蛋白(IVIG)耐药是CALs的独立危险因素。近年来，一系列的预测模型已被开发来评估IVIG耐药的风险。然而，目前基于KD儿童人口学特征、临床表现、实验室检查及遗传特性的IVIG耐药性预测评分系统在不同民族和同一民族不同地区的人群中存在显著差异，尚未建立适用普遍人群的预测模型。     

肌少症预测肺癌患者预后的研究进展北大核心

肺癌是我国死亡率最高的恶性肿瘤。肌少症在肺癌患者中发病率较高,且近年来越来越多的研究显示肌少症对肺癌患者预后预测具有一定价值。本文就肌少症的诊断、肺癌与肌少症的关系以及肌少症对肺癌患者预后预测、干预治疗等方面的研究进行综述。     

ICU患者发生产ESBLs革兰阴性杆菌 感染的危险因素分析及预测模型的建立

[摘要]　目的　探讨ICU患者发生产超广谱β-内酰胺酶（extended spectrum beta-lactamases, ESBLs）革兰阴性杆菌感染的危险因素，并构建相关预测模型。方法　选取2017年5月—2021年4月我院ICU发生大肠埃希菌或肺炎克雷伯菌感染的189例患者作为研究对象，收集患者的临床资料，使用单因素分析、LASSO回归和多因素Logistic回归分析ICU患者30 d内发生产ESBLs革兰阴性杆菌感染的危险因素，并据此建立列线图预测模型。结果　急性生理与慢性健康评分≥16分、留置尿管时长≥7 d、抑酸剂使用时长≥3 d、第三代头孢菌素使用时长≥3 d、抗菌药物联用时长≥3 d和ICU住院时间≥15 d是ICU患者30 d内发生产ESBLs革兰阴性杆菌感染的危险因素（P均＜0.05）。依此建立预测ICU患者30 d内发生产ESBLs革兰阴性杆菌感染的列线图风险模型，模型验证结果显示C-index为0.795，校正曲线趋近于理想曲线，AUC为0.807（95%CI：0.775～0.839），在2%～81%预测范围内，列线图净获益。结论　ICU患者30 d内发生产ESBLs革兰阴性杆菌感染的危险因素包括APACHEⅡ评分≥16分、留置尿管时长≥7 d、抑酸剂使用时长≥3 d、第三代头孢菌素使用时长≥3 d、抗菌药物联用时长≥3 d和ICU住院时间≥15 d，据此构建的列线图模型能有效预测ICU患者30 d内发生产ESBLs革兰阴性杆菌感染的风险概率，具有一定的临床价值。