1401例超长住院日患者分布与影响因素分析

目的分析超长住院患者分布及影响因素,探讨减少超长住院日的措施。方法从江苏省某三甲医院病案管理系统中调取2020年1月1日-2020年12月31日134016例出院患者的住院病案首页资料,对住院时间≥30天的1401例超长住院患者的分布特征进行统计描述,采用Logistic回归模型分析超长住院日的影响因素。结果2020年全院平均住院日为7.13天,其中超长住院患者平均住院日为41.85天。超长住院患者以60岁以上年龄组最多(39.61%);出院科室主要分布在血液科(42.18%)、普通外科(11.85%)、骨科(7.49%)等;疾病类别主要为肿瘤(47.32%)、影响健康状态和与保健机构接触的因素(10.56%)、循环系统疾病(7.07%)等;多因素Logistic回归结果显示,男性(OR=1.188)、离院方式为非医嘱离院或其他(OR=2.046)和死亡病例(OR=3.362)是超长住院的危险因素。结论控制超长住院日对平均住院日影响显著,医院应加强重点人群、重点科室和重点病种管理提高诊疗管理水平,缩短平均住院日。     

435例原发性高血压患者脉图参数与心血管危险分层的相关性分析

目的 本研究旨在探讨原发性高血压患者脉图参数与心血管危险分层的相关性，为原发性高血压患者心血管风险事件预警提供中医特色的依据。方法 采集435例原发性高血压患者的症状体征、脉象信息、生化指标等，分为低中危组、高危组、很高危组，采用单因素方差分析、秩和检验、有序logistic回归分析等方法，探讨原发性高血压患者脉图参数与心血管危险分层的相关性。结果 ①高血压低中危组→高危组→很高危组患者病程逐渐延长，两两组间比较有统计学差异；②高血压低中危组→高危组→很高危组患者的脉图参数H3/H1、H4/H1逐渐上升；高血压患者很高危组H5/H1、T1/T低于低中危组；③有序logistic回归分析结果显示，脉图参数T1、T4、T5、T为影响因素。结论 病程、血脂、肾功能是高血压患者心血管危险分层的影响因素之一。心血管危险分层等级的升高与脉图参数H3/H1、H4/H1、T5、T的升高及H5/H1、T4、T1的降低相关，说明脉图能一定程度上反映原发性高血压患者血管壁增厚、血管内壁受损、血管硬化及左心室收缩功能的减退程度。     

A new analytical cut-off point for determining 18 years of age using MRI on medial clavicular epiphysis

Evaluation of the ossification of the medial clavicular epiphysis plays a key role in forensic age estimation. The purpose of the present study was to assess a new numerical cut-off at the age of 18 years, taking into consideration Magnetic Resonance (MR) images of the medial clavicular epiphysis. We analyzed 163 MR scans of Italian subjects aged between 14 and 25 years. Using the data obtained we calculated two ratios: REM-1 (ratio between the length of the whole epiphysis and the length of the metaphysis) and REM-2 (ratio between the length of epiphyseal-metaphyseal fusion and the length of the metaphysis). In 68 out of 163 cases it was not possible to measure REM-2. The reproducibility was demonstrated using the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) (Cronbach’s alpha > 0.80). REM-1 and REM-2 were compared in each category of age (adult and minor) by the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The cut-off points for measurements of REM-1 and REM-2 were determined by logistic regression. For REM-1, the cut-off scores were 0.83 for all individuals (accuracy = 94.77%) and males (accuracy = 96.05%), and 0.86 for females (accuracy = 92.30%). For REM-2, the cut-off values were 0.40 for all individuals and males (accuracy = 100.00%), and 0.41 for females (accuracy = 100.00%). Finally, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for age classification based on REM-1 and REM-2 were constructed, showing that REM-2 had the highest discriminative power. Thus, a new cut-off model for predicting the age of majority has been introduced, conducting a quantitative analysis thanks to the use of a high-resolution imaging tool.     

青海地区获得性耐药结核病产生的危险因素及其预测模型的构建

目的探讨青海地区原发性与获得性耐药结核病的危险因素及临床发病风险预测模型构建。方法选取2018年7月-2019年7月青海地区132例耐药结核病患者为观察组,青海地区132例非耐药结核病患者为对照组,查阅患者的的临床资料,并自制调查问卷,以问卷调查的方式收集患者的相关信息,分析两组患者的临床指征,采用多因素Logistic回归分析完成风险模型建立,绘制ROC曲线分析风险模型的预测效能。结果单因素结果表明:青海地区原发性与获得性耐药结核病发生率与年龄、性别、与患者接触、3月底痰涂片结果无统计学意义(P>0.05);与居住地、婚姻状况、家庭收入、治疗末痰涂片结果、体重指数、抗结核药物性肝损害、结核病灶数、结核空洞、合并糖尿病及登记分类初治具有统计学意义(P<0.05);多因素logistic结果表明:青海地区原发性与获得性耐药结核病发生率与居住地、登记分类、体重指数、抗结核药物性肝损害、3月末肺结核病灶数及痰涂片结果,具有统计学意义(P<0.05);ROC曲线结果表明:构建获得性耐药结核病发病风险预测模型用于青海地区原发性与获得性耐药结核病患者中ACU值为0.847,预测敏感性为87.46%,特异性为90.29%。结论青海地区原发性与获得性耐药结核病危险因素较多,不同因素能相互作用、相互影响,构建获得性耐药结核病发病风险预测模型,能较好的预测临床发病,有助于指导临床诊疗。     

Stature estimation for Saudi men based on different combinations of upper limb part dimensions

Estimating stature based on body/limb parts can help define the characteristics of unidentified bodies. The most studied upper limb part is the hand, although few studies have examined whether stature can be estimated using fingers plus other hand dimensions. Moreover, there is paucity in anthropometric studies that determined whether bilateral whole limb parts (e.g., arms, forearms, and hands) are related to stature among the living subjects.This prospective cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate the relationship between different upper limb measurements and the stature of Saudi men. Furthermore, I assessed whether upper limb asymmetry was present, and developed regression models to estimate stature based on different available measurements. Stature and 13 upper limb parameters were measured for 100 right-handed Saudi men who were 18 to 24 years old.All measurements were positively correlated with stature (P < .001), and the best single predictor was the bilateral ulnar length. Asymmetry was more pronounced in the hand measurements. A multiparameter model provided reasonable predictive accuracy (±3.77–5.68 cm) and was more accurate than single-parameter models. Inclusion of the right-side fingers improved the model''s accuracy.This study developed potential models for estimating stature during the identification of bodies of Saudi men.     

超声引导下经皮经肝胆囊穿刺后继发性脓肿发生的危险因素分析

目的 探讨超声引导下经皮经肝胆囊穿刺置管引流术(Percutaneous Transhepatic Gallbladder Drainage,PTGD)术后发生继发性脓肿(Secondary abscess,SA)的发生率及其危险因素。方法 回顾性分析南京医科大学附属无锡人民医院2010年1月至2017年12月间410例经超声引导下PTGD患者的临床资料,采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析相关危险因素。结果 12例(2.93%,12/410)患者PTGD术后出现SA,再次针对SA穿刺引流的成功率100%。对良性疾病梗阻、基础疾病、胆囊大小、腹水、凝血功能、血小板、糖化血红蛋白(HbA_1C)、短期内引流管脱落/自行拔出等混杂因素进行校正后,Logistic回归分析表明短期内引流管脱落/自行拔出(OR=6.64,95%Cl：3.34～13.81,P=0.03)和HbA_1C＞9.0%(OR=3.38,95%Cl：1.22～7.95,P=0.04)是引起术后SA的独立危险因素。结论 SA是超声引导下PTGD术后罕见的并发症,再次穿刺引流是治疗SA有效和安全的方法。临床可通过加强对穿刺引流管的保护和应用降血糖药物,降低PTGD术后SA的发生。     

Constrained empirical-likelihood confidence regions in nonignorable covariate-missing data problems

Missing covariates in regression analysis are a pervasive problem in medical, social, and economic researches. We study empirical-likelihood confidence regions for unconstrained and constrained regression parameters in a nonignorable covariate-missing data problem. For an assumed conditional mean regression model, we assume that some covariates are fully observed but other covariates are missing for some subjects. By exploitation of a probability model of missingness and a working conditional score model from a semiparametric perspective, we build a system of unbiased estimating equations, where the number of equations exceeds the number of unknown parameters. Based on the proposed estimating equations, we introduce unconstrained and constrained empirical-likelihood ratio statistics to construct empirical-likelihood confidence regions for the underlying regression parameters without and with constraints. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the proposed empirical-likelihood ratio statistics. Simulation results show that the proposed empirical-likelihood methods have a better finite-sample performance than other competitors in terms of coverage probability and interval length. Finally, we apply the proposed empirical-likelihood methods to the analysis of a data set from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.     

Quantile regression and empirical likelihood for the analysis of longitudinal data with monotone missing responses due to dropout,with applications to quality of life measurements from clinical trials

The analysis of quality of life (QoL) data can be challenging due to the skewness of responses and the presence of missing data. In this paper, we propose a new weighted quantile regression method for estimating the conditional quantiles of QoL data with responses missing at random. The proposed method makes use of the correlation information within the same subject from an auxiliary mean regression model to enhance the estimation efficiency and takes into account of missing data mechanism. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator have been studied and simulations are also conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator. The proposed method has also been applied to the analysis of the QoL data from a clinical trial on early breast cancer, which motivated this study.