From the Cover: Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate

Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 641–653 (2013)]. It has long been suspected that these suffer low bias [C. A. Doswell, D. W. Burgess, Mon. Weather Rev. 116, 495–501 (1988)]. Here, using mapping of low-level tornado winds in 120 tornadoes, we prove that supercell tornadoes are typically much stronger and wider than damage surveys indicate. Our results permit an accurate assessment of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes and tornado wind hazards, based on actual wind-speed observations, and meaningful comparisons of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes with theoretical predictions. We analyze data from Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radar measurements of 120 tornadoes at the time of peak measured intensity. In striking contrast to conventional damage-based climatologies, median tornado peak wind speeds are ∼60 m⋅s⁻¹, capable of causing significant, Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF)-2 to -3, damage, and 20% are capable of the most intense EF-4/EF-5 damage. National Weather Service (NWS) EF/wind speed ratings are 1.2 to 1.5 categories (∼20 m⋅s⁻¹) lower than DOW observations for tornadoes documented by both the NWS and DOWs. Median tornado diameter is 250 to 500 m, with 10 to 15% >1 km. Wind engineering tornado-hazard-model predictions and building wind resistance standards may require upward adjustment due to the increased wind-damage risk documented here.

Tornadoes cause direct harm to people, infrastructure, and communities (1). Quantifying tornado risk requires accurate knowledge of their wind speeds and the size of the areas at risk from these intense winds. However, since direct measurements of tornado winds are rare, tornado intensity and size are nearly always inferred indirectly from postevent damage surveys applying the Fujita (F) or Enhanced Fujita (EF) scales (2–5) to infer maximum wind speeds. Statistics concerning tornado frequency, intensity, and size are derived from these surveys. However, because most tornadoes do not damage well-engineered structures, from which the most intense wind speeds can be inferred, and many occur in primarily rural areas, damage-based tornado wind speed and size estimations are likely severely low biased (6–11). A limited climatology (12), using Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radar data (13–15), suggested that tornadoes may be larger and more intense than indicated by these surveys. In-situ observations of wind speeds reliably demonstrable to be inside the radius of maximum winds of tornadoes are very rare (16, 17) and inadequate for deriving a statistically meaningful climatology. It is no exaggeration to state that, until now, statistics concerning even the most basic characteristics of tornadoes, including intensity and size, could not be quantified with confidence.     

Satellite monitoring of forest fires and associated smoke plumes occurring in Korea

Operational research was carried out on satellite detection of forest fires and associated smoke plumes occurring in the Korean Peninsula. Forest fire data and satellite images obtained from 2004 to 2007 were examined. It was observed that at least three forest-fire episodes were caused by atmospheric lightning, while all other cases were recorded as anthropogenic causes, according to data gathered from the Korean meteorological and forestry services. For two episodes, there were 60~120 forest fires in North and South Korea, observations based on hotspots analysis. Smoke plumes transported over 1,200 km were observed. There was discussion of the role played by the emission of heated air and greenhouse gases in general warming and climate change in regional and global atmospheres, e.g., Arctic ice melting. With global warming, ice over the Arctic Ocean is melting significantly in summer (Chung and Le, Int J Remote Sens 25(2):front cover and 291–296, 2004). The suppression of forest fires caused by human activities is suggested to improve the atmospheric environment and to prevent climate change in the near future.     

From the Cover: Glacier loss on Kilimanjaro continues unabated

The dramatic loss of Kilimanjaro''s ice cover has attracted global attention. The three remaining ice fields on the plateau and the slopes are both shrinking laterally and rapidly thinning. Summit ice cover (areal extent) decreased ≈1% per year from 1912 to 1953 and ≈2.5% per year from 1989 to 2007. Of the ice cover present in 1912, 85% has disappeared and 26% of that present in 2000 is now gone. From 2000 to 2007 thinning (surface lowering) at the summits of the Northern and Southern Ice Fields was ≈1.9 and ≈5.1 m, respectively, which based on ice thicknesses at the summit drill sites in 2000 represents a thinning of ≈3.6% and ≈24%, respectively. Furtwängler Glacier thinned ≈50% at the drill site between 2000 and 2009. Ice volume changes (2000–2007) calculated for two ice fields reveal that nearly equivalent ice volumes are now being lost to thinning and lateral shrinking. The relative importance of different climatological drivers remains an area of active inquiry, yet several points bear consideration. Kilimanjaro''s ice loss is contemporaneous with widespread glacier retreat in mid to low latitudes. The Northern Ice Field has persisted at least 11,700 years and survived a widespread drought ≈4,200 years ago that lasted ≈300 years. We present additional evidence that the combination of processes driving the current shrinking and thinning of Kilimanjaro''s ice fields is unique within an 11,700-year perspective. If current climatological conditions are sustained, the ice fields atop Kilimanjaro and on its flanks will likely disappear within several decades.     

61例传染性非典型肺炎患者舌象与气候因素相关性的研究

目的探讨 2003年 1～ 4月 61例传染性非典型肺炎患者舌象与气候变化的相关性,为本病的防治提供线索.方法按照临床流行病学研究方法,前瞻性阶段调查 2003年 1～ 4月 61例传染性非典型肺炎患者 (病例组 )的舌象并与普通肺炎发热患者 151例 (对照组 )比较;同时调查该时段广州地区气候的变化.结果 广州地区属于湿热气候, 2003年 1～ 4月气温、湿度均比历年偏高 ;病例组的湿热舌象较对照组更明显 ,同时病例组舌象还表现出明显的气虚倾向.结论传染性非典型肺炎的发病可能与当地气候异常、患者发病前存在正气不足等有关 ,其舌象反映了传染性非典型肺炎火热的病机 ,并提示湿邪与传染性非典型肺炎有密切关系.     

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ(14)C) and climate (δ(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.