Optimización de la predicción de problemas financieros en empresas sanitarias privadas españolas aplicando algoritmos genéticos

ObjectiveThis paper presents a methodology to optimize, using Altman's Z-Score for private companies, the prediction of private companies of the Spanish health sector entering a situation of bankruptcy.MethodThe proposed method consists of the application of genetic algorithms (GA) to find the coefficients of the formula of the chain of ratios proposed by Altman in the version of the score for private companies which optimize the prediction for Spanish private health companies, maximizing sensitivity and specificity, and thereby reducing type I and type II errors. For this purpose, a sample of 5,903 companies from the Spanish private health sector obtained from the database of the Iberian Balance Analysis System (SABI) between 2007 and 2015 was used.ResultsThe results show that the predictive model obtained with the AG presents greater accuracy, sensitivity and specificity than that proposed by Altman for private companies with both test data and all sample data.ConclusionsThe most important finding of this study was to establish a methodology that can identify the optimized coefficients for the Altman Z-Score, which allows a more accurate prediction of bankruptcy in Spanish private healthcare companies.     

Quantifying cellular forces: Practical considerations of traction force microscopy for dermal fibroblasts

Traction force microscopy (TFM) is a well‐established technique traditionally used by biophysicists to quantify the forces adherent biological cells exert on their microenvironment. As image processing software becomes increasingly user‐friendly, TFM is being adopted by broader audiences to quantify contractility of (myo)fibroblasts. While many technical reviews of TFM’s computational mechanics are available, this review focuses on practical experimental considerations for dermatology researchers new to cell mechanics and TFM who may wish to implement a higher throughput and less expensive alternative to collagen compaction assays. Here, we describe implementation of experimental methods, analysis using open‐source software and troubleshooting of common issues to enable researchers to leverage TFM for their investigations into skin fibroblasts.     

Scalable detection of statistically significant communities and hierarchies,using message passing for modularity

Modularity is a popular measure of community structure. However, maximizing the modularity can lead to many competing partitions, with almost the same modularity, that are poorly correlated with each other. It can also produce illusory ‘‘communities’’ in random graphs where none exist. We address this problem by using the modularity as a Hamiltonian at finite temperature and using an efficient belief propagation algorithm to obtain the consensus of many partitions with high modularity, rather than looking for a single partition that maximizes it. We show analytically and numerically that the proposed algorithm works all of the way down to the detectability transition in networks generated by the stochastic block model. It also performs well on real-world networks, revealing large communities in some networks where previous work has claimed no communities exist. Finally we show that by applying our algorithm recursively, subdividing communities until no statistically significant subcommunities can be found, we can detect hierarchical structure in real-world networks more efficiently than previous methods.Community detection, or node clustering, is a key problem in network science, computer science, sociology, and biology. It aims to partition the nodes in a network into groups such that there are many edges connecting nodes within the same group and comparatively few edges connecting nodes in different groups.Many methods have been proposed for this problem. These include spectral clustering, where we classify nodes according to the eigenvectors of a linear operator such as the adjacency matrix, the random walk matrix, the graph Laplacian, or other linear operators (1–3); statistical inference, where we fit the network with a generative model such as the stochastic block model (4–7); and a wide variety of other methods, e.g., refs. 8–10. See ref. 11 for a review.We focus here on a popular measure of the quality of a partition, the modularity (e.g., refs. 8 and 12–14). We think of a partition {t} into q groups as a function t:V → {1, …, q}, where t_i is the group to which node i belongs. The modularity of a partition {t} of a network with n nodes and m edges is defined asQ({t})=1m(∑〈ij〉∈ℰδtitj−∑〈ij〉didj2mδtitj).[1]Here ? is the set of edges, d_i is the degree of node i, and δ is the Kronecker delta function. The modularity is proportional to the number of edges connecting nodes in the same community minus the expected number of such edges if the graph were random conditioned on its degree distribution, that is, the expectation in a null model where i and j are connected with probability proportional to d_id_j.However, maximizing over all possible partitions often gives a large modularity even in random graphs with no community structure (15–18). Thus, maximizing the modularity can lead to overfitting, where the “optimal” partition simply reflects random noise. Even in real-world networks, the modularity often exhibits a large amount of degeneracy, with multiple local optima that are poorly correlated with each other and are not robust to small perturbations (19).Thus, we need to add some notion of statistical significance to our algorithms. One approach is hypothesis testing, comparing various measures of community structure to the distribution we would see in a null model such as Erdős–Rényi (ER) graphs (20–22). However, even when communities really exist, the modularity of the true partition is often no higher than that of random graphs. In Fig. 1, we show partitions of two networks with the same size and degree distribution: an ER graph (Left) and a graph generated by the stochastic block model (Right), in the detectable regime where it is easy to find a partition correlated with the true one (5, 6). The true partition of the network in Fig. 1, Right has a smaller modularity than the partition found for the random graph in Fig. 1, Left. We can find a partition with higher modularity (and lower accuracy) in Fig. 1, Right, using, e.g., simulated annealing, but then the modularities we obtain for the two networks are similar. Thus, the usual approach of null distributions and P values for hypothesis testing does not appear to work.Open in a separate windowFig. 1.The adjacency matrices of two networks, partitioned to show possible community structure. Each blue point is an edge. (Left) The network is an ER graph, with no real community structure; however, a search by simulated annealing finds a partition with modularity 0.391. (Right) The network has true communities and is generated by the stochastic block model, but the true partition has modularity of just 0.333. Thus, illusory communities in random graphs can have higher modularity than true communities in structured graphs. Both networks have size n=5,000 and a Poisson degree distribution with mean c = 3; the network at Right has c_out/c_in = 0.2, in the easily detectable regime of the stochastic block model.We propose to solve this problem with the tools of statistical physics. As in ref. 16, we treat the modularity as the Hamiltonian of a spin system. We define the energy of a partition {t} as E({t}) = ?mQ({t}) and introduce a Gibbs distribution as a function of inverse temperature β, P({t}) ∝ e^?βE({t}). Rather than maximizing the modularity by searching for the ground state of this system, we focus on its Gibbs distribution at a finite temperature, looking for many high-modularity partitions rather than a single one. In analogy with previous work on the stochastic block model (5, 6), we define a partition {t^} by computing the marginals of the Gibbs distribution and assigning each node to its most likely community. Specifically, if ψti is the marginal probability that i belongs to group t, then t^i=argmaxtψti, breaking ties randomly if more than one t achieves the maximum. We call {t^} the retrieval partition and call its modularity Q({t^}) the retrieval modularity. We claim that {t^} is a far better measure of significant community structure than the maximum-modularity partition. In the language of statistics, the maximum marginal prediction is better than the maximum a posteriori prediction (e.g., ref. 23). More informally, the consensus of many good solutions is better than the ‘‘best’’ single one (24, 25).We give an efficient belief propagation (BP) algorithm to approximate these marginals, which is derived from the cavity method of statistical physics. This algorithm is highly scalable; each iteration takes linear time on sparse networks if the number of groups is fixed, and it converges rapidly in most cases. It is optimal in the sense that for synthetic graphs generated by the stochastic block model, it works all of the way down to the detectability transition. It provides a principled way to choose the number of communities, unlike other algorithms that tend to overfit. Finally, by applying this algorithm recursively, subdividing communities until no statistically significant subcommunities exist, we can uncover hierarchical structure.We validate our approach with experiments on real and synthetic networks. In particular, we find significant large communities in some large networks where previous work claimed there were none. We also compare our algorithm with several others, finding that it obtains more accurate results, both in terms of determining the number of communities and in terms of matching their ground-truth structure.     

基于实时荧光定量PCR分析的北柴胡内参基因的筛选及验证

目的筛选出在北柴胡不同生长时期及不同器官中表达均稳定的内参基因并进行验证。方法利用实时荧光定量PCR获得18个候选内参基因所有Ct值,通过3种不同算法(Bestkeeper、Norm Finder、Ge Norm)的软件对内参基因稳定性进行分析,采用皮尔森相关系数(Pearson correlation coefficient)分析3个软件给出的稳定性排名结果。结果所有候选内参基因的Ct值相对宽泛,ADF1b、ADF5、ADF7、e IF2b和ACT2为最为合适的内参基因,而e IF6被认为稳定性最差的内参基因。3个软件计算结果均呈现显著性相关。结论采用实时荧光定量PCR结合3种不同算法进行北柴胡内参基因的筛选及验证是可行的。在北柴胡柴胡分子遗传研究中,发掘到的内参基因对目的基因进行均一化处理有助于提高目的基因表达分析的精确性及可信度。     

Computer-assisted capnogram analysis

Characteristic abnormal carbon dioxide waveforms from patients with mechanically ventilated lungs are observed when, for example, valves are incompetent, the airway is obstructed, the breathing circuit becomes disconnected, or a patient overrides mechanical ventilation with spontaneous breaths. Automated observation of the carbon dioxide waveform provides a uniform, concise, and consistent interpretation of the capnogram. This article describes a computer algorithm for analyzing and classifying capnograms as normal or as belonging to one of the categories above. The algorithm also generates a diagnostic message when the capnogram deviates from a learned norm for at least three consecutive waveforms (and thus reduces the influence of artifacts). Clinical experience shows reliable waveform recognition by the algorithm.Supported in part by a grant from Datascope Corporation.The authors thank David A. Paulus, MD, and Jeffrey M. Feldman, MD, for their assistance and advice.     

Safety and Usability of Hemostats,Sealants, and Adhesives

Hemostats, sealants, and adhesives are an integral part of surgical patient care. Nurses who have knowledge about these agents can better help ensure safe, efficient surgical patient care. As a caregiver and patient advocate, the perioperative nurse must understand the most current information about these agents and be prepared to facilitate the transfer of this knowledge to all caregivers. Information about these agents, including the contraindications, warnings, and precautions associated with their use as well as their preparation and application, is provided here. Algorithms designed to clarify the best options for using hemostats, sealants, and adhesives are included as well.