1401例超长住院日患者分布与影响因素分析

目的分析超长住院患者分布及影响因素,探讨减少超长住院日的措施。方法从江苏省某三甲医院病案管理系统中调取2020年1月1日-2020年12月31日134016例出院患者的住院病案首页资料,对住院时间≥30天的1401例超长住院患者的分布特征进行统计描述,采用Logistic回归模型分析超长住院日的影响因素。结果2020年全院平均住院日为7.13天,其中超长住院患者平均住院日为41.85天。超长住院患者以60岁以上年龄组最多(39.61%);出院科室主要分布在血液科(42.18%)、普通外科(11.85%)、骨科(7.49%)等;疾病类别主要为肿瘤(47.32%)、影响健康状态和与保健机构接触的因素(10.56%)、循环系统疾病(7.07%)等;多因素Logistic回归结果显示,男性(OR=1.188)、离院方式为非医嘱离院或其他(OR=2.046)和死亡病例(OR=3.362)是超长住院的危险因素。结论控制超长住院日对平均住院日影响显著,医院应加强重点人群、重点科室和重点病种管理提高诊疗管理水平,缩短平均住院日。     

会所康复模式在女性精神分裂症恢复期病人中的应用

目的:探讨会所康复模式在女性精神分裂症恢复期病人中的应用效果。方法:选取2019年2月—2020年3月精神科收治的100例女性精神分裂恢复期病人作为研究对象,按随机数字表法分为对照组、观察组各50例,对照组采取常规康复治疗,观察组在常规康复治疗基础上应用会所多维度康复治疗模式。采用阳性和阴性症状量表(PANSS)、疾病家庭负担量表(FBS)、日常生活能力量表(ADL)、生活满意度指数B量表(LSIB)评价两组病人干预前、干预3个月、干预6个月精神症状、家庭负担、日常生活能力、生活自理能力。结果:两组病人干预3个月、干预6个月PANSS、FBS、ADL及LSIB评分比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);两组组内干预前后PANSS、FBS、ADL及LSIB评分比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:女性精神分裂症病人在恢复阶段应用会所康复模式进行干预可改善其精神症状,缓解其家庭负担,调节其日常生活能力和生活自理能力,提升其生活满意度。     

Predicting Survival for Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy: A Validation of Survival Models Using Follow-Up Data From ZUMA-1

ObjectivesSurvival extrapolation for chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapies is challenging, owing to their unique mechanistic properties that translate to complex hazard functions. Axicabtagene ciloleucel is indicated for the treatment of relapse or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after 2 or more lines of therapy based on the ZUMA-1 trial. Four data snapshots are available, with minimum follow-up of 12, 24, 36, and 48 months. This analysis explores how survival extrapolations for axicabtagene ciloleucel using ZUMA-1 data can be validated and compared.MethodsThree different parametric modeling approaches were applied: standard parametric, spline-based, and cure-based models. Models were compared using a range of metrics, across the 4 data snapshot, including visual fit, plausibility of long-term estimates, statistical goodness of fit, inspection of hazard plots, point-estimate accuracy, and conditional survival estimates.ResultsStandard and spline-based parametric extrapolations were generally incapable of fitting the ZUMA-1 data well. Cure-based models provided the best fit based on the earliest data snapshot, with extrapolations remaining consistent as data matured. At 48 months, the maximum survival overestimate was 8.3% (Gompertz mixture-cure model) versus the maximum underestimate of 33.5% (Weibull standard parametric model).ConclusionsWhere a plateau in the survival curve is clinically plausible, cure-based models may be helpful in making accurate predictions based on immature data. The ability to reliably extrapolate from maturing data may reduce delays in patient access to potentially lifesaving treatments. Additional research is required to understand how models compare in broader contexts, including different treatments and therapeutic areas.     

我国家庭医生签约服务政策执行的制约因素与优化路径：基于史密斯政策执行过程模型

深化家庭医生签约服务是深化医药卫生体制改革、强化基层医疗卫生服务、实现"健康中国"战略目标的重要选择，也是当前更好维护人民群众健康的重要途径。为有效推进签约服务工作，国家陆续推出各项政策，全国各地也在积极进行实践探索，成效明显。但是，签约服务仍面临诸多问题，其中"执行难"是签约服务深度推进的一大困境。通过史密斯政策执行过程模型，结合签约服务政策执行过程，发现签约服务仍存在法治性不足、政策执行人员水平不高、激励不足、政策环境影响等诸多制约因素。因此，需要从法律和制度方面进行顶层设计、提升执行人员素质和职业认同、建立医患互信、优化政策执行环境等角度进行政策创新，探索家庭医生签约服务可持续发展的路径。     

我国老年人认知水平变化轨迹及其分化

目的 探究影响我国老年人认知水平的变化趋势，分离出年龄、队列效应。方法 基于CLHLS（2002—2018）多重队列追踪数据，以Stata16.0软件为工具，运用分层生长曲线模型进行统计分析。结果 本研究发现，个体行为生活方式、社会经济地位、性别、慢性病数量对认知水平均具有统计学意义；年龄、队列对认知水平的变化具有独立效应；随着年龄的增长，我国老年人认知水平下降，认知水平的城乡、性别差异明显；较年轻出生队列的老年人认知水平较好，认知水平的城乡差异随着队列的年轻化而变大，性别差异在较年轻队列有略微缩小的趋势。结论 影响认知水平因素复杂，认知障碍会增加医疗成本及照护负担，因此需准确把握老年认知水平的变化规律与作用路径，从而为卫生服务、养老保障、长期医疗照护的资源配置提供科学依据。     

Deepm5C: A deep-learning-based hybrid framework for identifying human RNA N5-methylcytosine sites using a stacking strategy

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Parks/sports facilities in local communities and the onset of functional disability among older adults in Japan: The J-shaped spatial spillover effects

We examined the associations between parks/sports facilities in local communities and the onset of functional disability among Japanese older adults. We further investigated the spatial spillover effects of parks/sports facilities in 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-degree neighboring communities. Data on the onset of functional disability, including date of onset, sex, age, and address (school district) of all older adults aged 65 years and older living in Kobe City were obtained from the public long-term care insurance database (163,348 men [190,831 person-year] and 200,443 women [230,464 person-year]). Multilevel proportional hazard regression analyses showed that the number of parks and sports facilities were negatively associated with the onset of functional disability among men. In particular, these associations were stronger for the adjacent district than for individuals’ living districts. Our results imply that involving multiple neighboring communities as the intervention unit is effective when utilizing community built environments for long-term care prevention in men.     

Assessment of the Benefits of Targeted Interventions for Pandemic Control in China Based on Machine Learning Method and Web Service for COVID-19 Policy Simulation

Taking the Chinese city of Xiamen as an example, simulation and quantitative analysis were performed on the transmissions of the Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) and the influence of intervention combinations to assist policymakers in the preparation of targeted response measures. A machine learning model was built to estimate the effectiveness of interventions and simulate transmission in different scenarios. The comparison was conducted between simulated and real cases in Xiamen. A web inter...     

Optimal Respiratory Syncytial Virus intervention programmes using Nirsevimab in England and Wales

IntroductionRespiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI) in infants. There are no licensed vaccines and only one monoclonal antibody available to protect infants from disease. A new and potentially longer-lasting monoclonal antibody, Nirsevimab, showed promising results in phase IIb/III trials. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nirsevimab intervention programmes in England and Wales.MethodsWe used a dynamic model for RSV transmission, calibrated to data from England and Wales. We considered a suite of potential Nirsevimab programmes, including administration to all neonates (year-round); only neonates born during the RSV season (seasonal); or neonates born during the RSV season plus infants less than six months old before the start of the RSV season (seasonal + catch-up).ResultsIf administered seasonally to all infants at birth, we found that Nirsevimab would have to be priced at £63 or less per dose for at least 50% certainty that it could cost-effectively replace the current Palivizumab programme, using an ICER threshold of £20,000/QALY. An extended seasonal programme which includes a pre-season catch-up becomes the optimal strategy at a purchasing price of £32/dose or less for at least 50% certainty. At a purchasing price per dose of £5-32, the annual implementation costs of a seasonal programme could be as high as £2 million before a switch to a year-round strategy would be optimal.DiscussionNirsevimab has the potential to be cost-effective in England and Wales not only for use in high-risk infants.