SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

Comparative Study of Modified Posterior Operation to Treat Kümmell's Disease

The present study aimed at examining the curative effect of modified posterior operation on treatment of Kümmell''s disease.About 30 patients of Kümmell''s disease with complete image and clinical data treated during June 2004 to July 2013 were conducted with anterior and posterior approaches, respectively. Kyphotic Cobb angle, fractured vertebra wedge angle, and the anterior and posterior heights of fractured vertebra were all measured through x-ray before and after operation, and the pain visual analog scale (VAS) was determined for evaluating the effect of operations. The injury and restoration of neurological function were assessed using Frankel classification.Patients in group A were treated with anterior operation, whereas group B was posterior operation. Postoperatively, VAS score, kyphotic Cobb angle, anterior vertebra height, and pathologic vertebra wedge angle were all significantly improved in patients with Kümmell''s disease receiving modified posterior operation (group B). Similar results were also observed in patients with anterior operation. The improvement of VAS and correction rate of kyphotic Cobb angle indicated equivalent effects of posterior and anterior operations. Meanwhile, alleviated neurological function damage was observed in 2 groups. Relevant factor analysis illustrated that there was no significant correlation of the severity and improvement rate of pain symptoms with age, medical history, anterior and posterior vertebra heights, kyphotic Cobb angle, and pathological vertebra wedge angle.Compared with traditional anterior approach, modified posterior operation, adopting transpedicular vertebral body grafting combined with vertebral pedicle screw fixation, could produce equivalent effects on kyphosis correction, pain relief, and improvement of neurological function in patients with Kümmell''s disease.     

胃癌患者根治术后腹腔灌洗液中CEA mRNA表达的临床意义

目的：探讨胃癌患者根治术后腹腔冲洗液中CEA mRNA表达情况及其临床意义。方法: 回顾性分析了2013 年1 月至2017 年12 月在南京大学医学院附属鼓楼医院接受胃癌根治切除术后进行腹腔灌洗液CEA mRNA检测的139 名患者的病历资料，并进行术后常规随访。用RT-PCR检测139 胃癌患者根治术后腹腔灌洗液中CEA mRNA表达情况。卡方检验分析腹腔灌洗液中CEA mRNA表达与临床基本特征、组织病理学资料、血液学指标及复发方式之间的关系。采用Logistic 单因素及多因素回归分析筛查影响CEA mRNA表达水平的因素。结果：139 名患者中44 名（31.7%）患者腹腔灌洗液CEA mRNA阳性。分析显示，胃癌患者腹腔灌洗液CEA mRNA阳性表达与性别、年龄、病理分级、Lauren 分型和HER2、EGFR、VEGFR等标记物间均没有明显的关联（均P>0.05），与病理类型、脉管是否侵犯、局部浸润深度、淋巴结转移程度和临床AJCC 分期有明显的关联（均P<0.05）。CEA mRNA阳性患者腹膜复发率明显高于阴性患者（P=0.012）。Logistic 单因素回归分析显示，印戒细胞癌（P=0.04，HR=2.810，95% CI: 1.050~7.520）、T 分期（P=0.016，HR=6.329，95% CI: 1.417~28.264）、N 分期（P=0.022，HR=3.068，95% CI: 1.172~8.027）、AJCC分期（P=0.016 ，HR=3.971 ，95% CI: 1.295~12.173 ）、神经侵犯（P=0.002 ，HR=6.738，95% CI: 1.995~22.757）、脉管侵犯（P<0.001，HR=16.36，95% CI: 3.85~69.512）为胃癌患者腹腔灌洗液CEA mRNA阳性表达的危险因素。Logistic 多因素回归分析显示，经过对其他因素的校正，脉管侵犯（P<0.001，HR=21.314，95% CI: 4.21~107.907）为胃癌患者腹腔灌洗液CEA mRNA阳性表达的独立危险因素。结论：胃癌腹腔灌洗CEA mRNA阳性的患者腹膜复发转移风险高且预后不良，应考虑包括腹腔局部治疗在内的更加积极的抗肿瘤治疗。     

Radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for predicting liver failure

BACKGROUND Postoperative liver failure is the most severe complication in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) after major hepatectomy. Current available clinical indexes predicting postoperative residual liver function are not sufficiently accurate.AIM To determine a radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging for predicting liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.METHODS For this retrospective study, a radiomics-based model was developed based on preoperative hepatobiliary phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance images in 101 patients with HCC between June 2012 and June 2018. Sixty-one radiomic features were extracted from hepatobiliary phase images and selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to construct a radiomics signature. A clinical prediction model, and radiomics-based model incorporating significant clinical indexes and radiomics signature were built using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The integrated radiomics-based model was presented as a radiomics nomogram. The performances of clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model for predicting post-operative liver failure were determined using receiver operating characteristics curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses.RESULTS Five radiomics features from hepatobiliary phase images were selected to construct the radiomics signature. The clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model incorporating indocyanine green clearance rate at 15 min and radiomics signature showed favorable performance for predicting postoperative liver failure(area under the curve: 0.809-0.894). The radiomics-based model achieved the highest performance for predicting liver failure(area under the curve: 0.894; 95%CI: 0.823-0.964). The integrated discrimination improvement analysis showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of liver failure prediction when radiomics signature was added to the clinical prediction model(integrated discrimination improvement = 0.117, P =0.002). The calibration curve and an insignificant Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic(P = 0.841) demonstrated good calibration of the radiomics-based model. The decision curve analysis showed that patients would benefit more from a radiomics-based prediction model than from a clinical prediction model and radiomics signature alone.CONCLUSION A radiomics-based model of preoperative gadoxetic acid–enhanced MRI can be used to predict liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.     

甲状腺疾病患者血清 Tg-CIC 中 Tg-Ab 水平检测及相关临床研究

目的　对血清甲状腺球蛋白免疫复合物 (thyroglobulin circulating immune complex, Tg-CIC) 中抗甲状腺球蛋白抗体 (anti-thyroglobulin antibody, Tg-Ab) 含量检测，探讨 Tg-CIC 在甲状腺疾病中的临床以及流行病学意义。方法　收集甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 187 例，每例血清标本分为两组 ( 实验组和空白对照组 )，采用免疫复合物解离专利技术对甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 Tg-CIC 进行分离、解离，通过检测 Tg-CIC 解离后的 Tg-Ab 含量来间接反映甲状腺疾病患者血清中Tg-CIC 水平，按照不同的甲状腺疾病进行分组并对实验结果分析讨论。结果　不同甲状腺患者血清中 Tg-CIC 总阳性率达 92.51%，不同甲状腺疾病血清中 Tg-CIC 的阳性率差异无统计学意义 (χ?=2.917, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义 (H=3.882, P>0.05)，不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义(H=5.5842, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的 Tg-Ab 含量呈正相关 (P<0.05)，甲状腺功能减退、甲状腺肿瘤患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的Tg-Ab 含量不相关 (P>0.05)。结论　在甲状腺疾病患者血清中，大部分可检出 Tg-CIC，与疾病类型无关。而甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量与血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量存在相关性，为我们进一步了解 Tg-CIC 与甲状腺疾病的发生、发展的相关性研究奠定了基础，提供了新的研究视角。     

探讨基于近红外脑成像技术的阈下抑郁情志刺激反应机制研究可行性

近红外脑功能成像技术是近几年发展起来用于动态检测脑功能的方法,能够很好地反映抑郁人群认知活动期间大脑有氧代谢的变化,为阈下抑郁研究提供了一个新思路。本研究通过文献综述,结合中医情志理论,在过往研究的基础上基于近红外脑功能成像技术探讨中医情志刺激对阈下抑郁的反应机制,为后期研究提供理论与实践可行性的依据。     

糖尿病黄斑水肿患者病变程度与脉络膜厚度的关系

目的　利用频域光学相干断层扫描深度增强（enhanced depth imaging spectral domain optical coherence tomography，EDI SD-OCT）观察糖尿病黄斑水肿（diabetic macular edema，DME）患者脉络膜厚度（choroidal thickness，CT）的变化及结构特点，探讨DME病变程度与CT的关系。方法　纳入2型糖尿病患者共123例204眼，其中69眼诊断为DME（DME组），135眼无黄斑水肿为对照组。DME眼依据OCT形态学特点进一步分为视网膜弥漫性增厚（diffuse retinal thickness，DRT）型（34眼）、黄斑囊样水肿（cystoid macular edema，CME）型（19眼）和浆液性视网膜脱离（serous retinal detachment，SRD）型（16眼），利用EDI-OCT分别测量黄斑中心凹下CT和以黄斑为中心上、下、鼻、颞500 μm、1000 μm、1500 μm、2000 μm处CT。结果　DME组黄斑中心凹下CT为（326.72±90.15）μm，对照组为（320.17±106.46）μm，两组之间无统计学差异，但黄斑中心凹下CT与视网膜厚度间具有明显正相关关系（r=0.270，P=0.025）。DME亚型CT分别为:DRT型（303.94±81.47）μm、CME型（304.42±73.98）μm和SRD型（401.63±88.80）μm，SRD型CT明显高于其他亚型（P<0.05），此外，SRD型的周边CT同样呈现均匀一致的增厚；鼻侧CT从500 μm至2000 μm呈距离敏感性降低（P<0.05），但SRD型鼻侧CT降低幅度明显变缓（P=0.195）。结论　SRD型黄斑水肿患者CT在中心凹下及周边部均显著增厚，CT与DME病变程度之间有一定相关性。