Redefining “low risk”: Outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement in low-risk patients in the transcatheter aortic valve replacement era

ObjectivesGuidelines suggest aortic valve replacement (AVR) for low-risk asymptomatic patients. Indications for transcatheter AVR now include low-risk patients, making it imperative to understand state-of-the-art surgical AVR (SAVR) in this population. Therefore, we compared SAVR outcomes in low-risk patients with those expected from Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models and assessed their intermediate-term survival.MethodsFrom January 2005 to January 2017, 3493 isolated SAVRs were performed in 3474 patients with STS predicted risk of mortality <4%. Observed operative mortality and composite major morbidity or mortality were compared with STS-expected outcomes according to calendar year of surgery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for these outcomes. Patients were followed for time-related mortality.ResultsWith 15 observed operative deaths (0.43%) compared with 55 expected (1.6%), the observed:expected ratio was 0.27 for mortality (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14-0.42), stroke 0.65 (95% CI, 0.41-0.89), and reoperation 0.50 (95% CI, 0.42-0.60). Major morbidity or mortality steadily declined, with probabilities of 8.6%, 6.7%, and 5.2% in 2006, 2011, and 2016, respectively, while STS-expected risk remained at approximately 12%. Mitral valve regurgitation, ventricular hypertrophy, pulmonary, renal, and hepatic failure, coronary artery disease, and earlier surgery date were residual risk factors. Survival was 98%, 91%, and 82% at 1, 5, and 9 years, respectively, superior to that predicted for the US age-race-sex–matched population.ConclusionsSTS risk models overestimate contemporary SAVR risk at a high-volume center, supporting efforts to create a more agile quality assessment program. SAVR in low-risk patients provides durable survival benefit, supporting early surgery and providing a benchmark for transcatheter AVR.     

Risk as a pattern over time: Delineation of time-dependent risk factors in biological,psychological, and social variables in cancer patients

Background

Survival in cancer patients is associated with a multitude of biological, social, and psychological factors. Although it is well established that all these factors add to overall mortality, it is not well understood how the predictive power of these parameters changes in a comprehensive model and over time.

Methods

Patients who attended the authors’ outpatient clinic were invited to participate. The authors followed 5180 mixed cancer patients (51.1% female; mean age, 59.1 years [SD = 13.8]) for up to 16 years and analyzed biological (age, sex, cancer site, anemia), psychological (anxiety, depression), and social variables (marital status, education, employment status) potentially predicting overall survival in a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

The median survival time for the entire sample was 4.3 years (95% confidence interval, 4.0–4.7). The overall survival probabilities for 1 and 10 years were 76.8% and 38.0%, respectively. Following an empirical approach, the authors split the time interval into five periods: acute, subacute, short-term, medium-term, and long-term. A complex pattern of variables predicted overall survival differently in the five periods. Biological parameters were important throughout most of the time, social parameters were either time-independent predictors or tended to be more important in the longer term. Of the psychological parameters, only depression was a significant predictor and lost its predictive power in the long-term.

Conclusions

The findings of this study allow the development of comprehensive patient-specific models of risk and resilience factors addressing biopsychosocial needs of cancer patients, paving the way for a personalized treatment plan that goes beyond biomedical cancer care.     

Local economic growth and infant mortality

We estimate the effect of local economic growth on infant mortality. We use geo-referenced data for non-migrating mothers from 46 developing countries and a total of 128 DHS survey rounds and combine it with nighttime luminosity data at a granular level. Using mother fixed effects we show that an increase in local economic activity significantly reduces the probability that the same mother loses a child before its first birthday.     

Prediction of all-cause mortality with malnutrition assessed by nutritional screening and assessment tools in patients with heart failure：a systematic review

Background and aimsIn the absence of a gold standard or scientific consensus regarding the nutritional evaluation of heart failure (HF) patients, this study aimed to summarize and systematically evaluate the prognostic value of nutritional screening and assessment tools used for all-cause mortality in HF patients.Methods and resultsRelevant studies were retrieved from major databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), WanFang Data, and China Biology Medicine disc (CMB)) and searched from the earliest available date until July 2021. If three or more studies used the same tool, meta-analysis using RevMan 5.3 was performed. This systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (number CRD42021275575). A total of 36 articles involving 25,141 HF patients were included for qualitative analysis and 31 studies for quantitative analysis. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated, poor nutritional status evaluated by using 5 nutritional screening tools (Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), Controlling Nutritional Status Score (CONUT), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), and Short Form Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF)) or 2 nutritional assessment tools (the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and Generated Subjective Global Assessment (SGA)) predicted all-cause mortality in HF patients. Of all tools analyzed, MNA had the maximum HR for mortality [HR = 2.62, 95%CI 1.11–6.20, P = 0.03] and MNA-SF [HR = 1.94, 95%CI 1.40–2.70, P＜0.001] was the best nutritional screening tools.ConclusionPoor nutritional status predicted all-cause mortality in HF patients. MNA may be the best nutritional assessment tool, and MNA-SF is most recommended for HF patient nutritional screening. The application value of MNA, especially in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), needs to be further confirmed. The clinical application value of Mini-Nutrition Assessment Special for Heart Failure (MNA-HF) and Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) in HF patients needs to be confirmed.     

Mortalidad por complicaciones médicas y quirúrgicas,impacto de la crisis y gasto sanitario en España, 2002-2013

ObjectiveTo describe the evolution of mortality risks for complications due to medical care or surgery between the periods prior to (2002-2007) and after (2008-2013) the beginning of the economic crisis for Spain and by autonomous region, and to analyse the relationship between the changes in the risks of death and the socioeconomic impact of the crisis and the variation in health spending.MethodEcological study based on age-standardized mortality rates, synthetic index of vulnerability as a socioeconomic indicator and variation in health expenditure as an indicator of health expenditure. The relative risk of death between periods was estimated with Poisson regression models.ResultsThe number of deaths increased for Spain in the period studied. Although the relationship between the increase in public investment in health and the decrease in mortality due to this cause has not been clearly demonstrated, it was possible to determine that the autonomous regions with the lowest increase in health expenditure had rates higher than the rest throughout the period, and that the most vulnerable to the crisis and with the lowest increase in spending presented the greatest increase in the risk of death between the periods.ConclusionsGiven the increase in these deaths, due to avoidable failures of the system, it is necessary to continue investigating this cause of mortality.