A new conditional performance score for the evaluation of adaptive group sequential designs with sample size recalculation

In standard clinical trial designs, the required sample size is fixed in the planning stage based on initial parameter assumptions. It is intuitive that the correct choice of the sample size is of major importance for an ethical justification of the trial. The required parameter assumptions should be based on previously published results from the literature. In clinical practice, however, historical data often do not exist or show highly variable results. Adaptive group sequential designs allow a sample size recalculation after a planned unblinded interim analysis in order to adjust the sample size during the ongoing trial. So far, there exist no unique standards to assess the performance of sample size recalculation rules. Single performance criteria commonly reported are given by the power and the average sample size; the variability of the recalculated sample size and the conditional power distribution are usually ignored. Therefore, the need for an adequate performance score combining these relevant performance criteria is evident. To judge the performance of an adaptive design, there exist two possible perspectives, which might also be combined: Either the global performance of the design can be addressed, which averages over all possible interim results, or the conditional performance is addressed, which focuses on the remaining performance conditional on a specific interim result. In this work, we give a compact overview of sample size recalculation rules and performance measures. Moreover, we propose a new conditional performance score and apply it to various standard recalculation rules by means of Monte-Carlo simulations.     

Tracking Spinal Cord Injury Functional Outcomes Across the Lifespan: Validation of Linking Coefficients

ObjectiveValidation of linking coefficients to transform Pediatric Spinal Cord Injury Activity Measure (PEDI-SCI/AM) scores to adult Spinal Cord Injury-Functional Index (SCI-FI) scores.DesignThis cross-sectional study administered PEDI-SCI/AM and SCI-FI computerized adaptive tests (CATs) and short forms (SFs) to children with SCI and parents or caregivers.SettingHospitals, university, and rehabilitation institute.ParticipantsAbout 107 children with SCI and 96 parent or caregivers.InterventionsNot applicable.Main Outcome MeasuresLinking coefficients estimated SCI-FI (est-SCI-FI) scores from PEDI-SCI/AM scores for matched domains. Correlations between est-SCI-FI and actual SCI-FI scores were calculated. If correlations exceeded the criterion linking (0.866), the following analyses to compare est-SCI-FI and actual SCI-FI scores were conducted: paired t tests, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs 3, 1), percent of cases with absolute score differences at different thresholds.ResultsTwo matched domains, PEDI-SCI/AM Daily Routine/SCI-FI Self-Care and PEDI-SCI/AM General Mobility/SCI-FI Basic Mobility, met the linking criterion for both respondent-types (parent and child) and administration modes (CAT and SF). PEDI-SCI/AM Daily Routine and SCI-FI Fine Motor Function did not meet linking criterion for respondent type or mode. The linking criterion was met for wheelchair domains (child SF and CAT) and ambulation domains (child SF only). Significant differences between est-SCI-FI and actual SCI-FI scores were noted for all matched domains except Daily Routine/Self-Care (child SF only; parent SF and CAT). ICC values showed excellent agreement (range=0.75-0.89). Absolute differences between est-SCI-FI and actual SCI-FI scores were less than 1 standard deviation (except wheelchair CAT child).ConclusionsLinking coefficients applied to PEDI-SCI/AM scores can provide valid SCI-FI estimates that vary by domain, mode, and respondent type.     

Chile Crece Contigo: Implementation,results, and scaling‐up lessons

Background

Chile Crece Contigo (ChCC) is defined as a comprehensive, intersectoral, and multicomponent policy that aims to help all children reach their full potential for development, regardless of their socio‐economic status.

Methods

This case study was developed on the basis of grey literature review and key informants' interviews.

Results

ChCC behaves as a complex adaptive system that combines universal and targeted benefits for the more vulnerable starting since gestation and until the children are 4 years old. Three key ministries are involved in ChCC management: health, education, and social development. Studies show adequate programme implementation and positive effects of ChCC on child development. In addition, it was found that the more families use ChCC benefits and the longer the subsystem has been operating in the commune, the greater the positive effects.

Conclusions

Strong political support based on principles of equity and child rights combined with strong evidence and funding commitment from government has been central to emergence, scaling up, and sustainability of ChCC. Further sustainability of ChCC will rely on firmly establishing a well‐trained and compensated cadre of early child development professionals and paraprofessionals as well as an improved management and evaluation decentralized system.     

Physiology of immune competence

When evaluating a child with recurrent infection or suspected immune dysfunction it is important to keep in mind the different components of a fully competent immune response. There are three main parts. A healthy and competent immune response requires an effective (i) barrier to infection (ii) innate immune response and (iii) adaptive immune response. An understanding of these discrete systems and how they interact allows clinicians to undertake investigation and management in a strategic manner, moving beyond a ‘tick box’ approach to immune dysfunction. This review will outline different elements of the immune system, with specific reference to defects that can lead to disease in humans.     

A simple Bayesian decision‐theoretic design for dose‐finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision‐theoretic design for dose‐finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose‐toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one‐step‐look‐ahead (OSLA), which selects the best‐so‐far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two‐step‐look‐ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two‐step‐look‐ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neutrophil extracellular traps in sterile inflammation: the story after dying?

Evidences accumulated that the death of neutrophils are not the end of their missions. The neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), web-like structure, formed after neutrophils dying contribute greatly to immune defense, in both innate and adaptive immunity. Interestingly, previous studies revealed that the generation and activation of NETs do not only rely on bacteria induction, but also in patients with sterile inflammatory diseases, implying an undeniable correlation between NETs and these diseases. This review summarized the latest findings that the crucial roles of NETs in sterile inflammatory diseases, as well as novel targeted therapy based on these new discoveries.     

Sample Size Estimation Based on Event Data for a Two-Stage Survival Adaptive Trial with Different Durations

In clinical development, an adaptive design combining results from two separate studies (e.g., a seamless adaptive design with a dose finding study phase and a confirmatory study phase) is commonly considered. The purpose of an adaptive design is not only to reduce lead time between the two studies, but also to evaluate the treatment effect in a more efficient way. In this paper, the focus is on the case where the study objectives are the same but the time durations of the study periods are different in the two stages. In particular, event data are collected in both stages. Statistical procedure for combining data observed from the two different stages is discussed. Furthermore, results on hypotheses testing and sample size calculation are derived for the comparison of two treatments.     

Economic repercussions of fisheries-induced evolution

Fish stocks experiencing high fishing mortality show a tendency to mature earlier and at a smaller size, which may have a genetic component and therefore long-lasting economic and biological effects. To date, the economic effects of such ecoevolutionary dynamics have not been empirically investigated. Using 70 y of data, we develop a bioeconomic model for Northeast Arctic cod to compare the economic yield in a model in which life-history traits can vary only through phenotypic plasticity with a model in which, in addition, genetic changes can occur. We find that evolutionary changes toward faster growth and earlier maturation occur consistently even if a stock is optimally managed. However, if a stock is managed optimally, the evolutionary changes actually increase economic yield because faster growth and earlier maturation raise the stock’s productivity. The optimal fishing mortality is almost identical for the evolutionary and nonevolutionary model and substantially lower than what it has been historically. Therefore, the costs of ignoring evolution under optimal management regimes are negligible. However, if fishing mortality is as high as it has been historically, evolutionary changes may result in economic losses, but only if the fishery is selecting for medium-sized individuals. Because evolution facilitates growth, the fish are younger and still immature when they are susceptible to getting caught, which outweighs the increase in productivity due to fish spawning at an earlier age.