稽留流产孕早期预测模型的构建与验证

目的构建稽留流产(missed abortion,MA)患者在孕早期流产危险因素列线图。方法纳入2017年2月至2019年10月因稽留流产于中国建筑第二工程局职工医院治疗的孕妇125例为研究组,随机纳入同时期正常孕妇126例为对照组,分析两组患者临床基本资料:年龄、环境因素、动物接触史、叶酸使用、文化程度、流产情况、疾病史、激素水平等。采用Logistic回归分析对孕早期发生稽留流产的危险因素进行分析,应用R软件建立孕早期稽留流产预测列线图,并进行验证。结果研究组孕妇年龄、睾酮(testosterone,T)水平高于对照组,而催乳素(prolactin,PRL)、雌二醇(estradiol,E2)、孕酮(progesterone,P)水平低于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);Logistic回归分析提示孕妇年龄(OR=1.809,P=0.003)、吸烟饮酒(OR=78.120、P=0.044)、职业暴露(OR=61.238,P=0.021)、T水平(OR=5.432,P=0.001)是孕早期发生MA的危险因素。PRL(OR=0.376,P=0.003)、E2(OR=0.258,P=0.016)、P(OR=0.396,P=0.005)是孕早期发生MA的保护因素。预测孕早期MA发生的相关危险因素的C-index为0.912(95%CI:0.874-0.943)。结论列线图中孕妇年龄、环境因素、激素水平能较准确的预测孕早期发生MA的风险。     

Japanese Versus Non-Japanese Patients with Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke: Subanalysis of TIA registry.org

BackgroundTIAregistry.org is an international cohort of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke within 7 days before enrollment in the registry. Main analyses of 1-year follow-up data have been reported.⁵ We conducted subanalysis on the baseline and 1-year follow-up data of Japanese patients.MethodsThe patients were classified into 2 groups based on Japanese ethnicity, Japanese (345) and non-Japanese (3238), and their baseline data and 1-year event rates were compared. We also determined risk factors and predictors of 1-year stroke.ResultsCurrent smoking, regular alcohol drinking, intracranial arterial stenosis, and small vessel occlusion; and hypertension, dyslipidemia, coronary artery disease, and extracranial arterial stenosis were more and less common among Japanese patients, respectively. Stroke risk was higher and TIA risk was lower at 1-year follow-up among Japanese patients. The baseline risk factors for recurrent stroke were diabetes, alcohol drinking, and large artery atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of 1-year stroke risk were prior congestive heart failure and alcohol consumption.ConclusionsThe two populations of patients featured differences in risk factors, stroke subtypes, and outcome events. Predictors of recurrent stroke among Japanese patients included congestive heart failure and regular alcohol drinking. Strategies to attenuate residual risk of stroke aside from adherence to current guidelines should take our Japanese-patient specific findings into account.     

Risk communication in a patient decision aid for radiotherapy in breast cancer: How to deal with uncertainty?

Background and aimPatient decision aids for oncological treatment options, provide information on the effect on recurrence rates and/or survival benefit, and on side-effects and/or burden of different treatment options. However, often uncertainty exists around the probability estimates for recurrence/survival and side-effects which is too relevant to be ignored. Evidence is lacking on the best way to communicate these uncertainties. The aim of this study is to develop a method to incorporate uncertainties in a patient decision aid for breast cancer patients to support their decision on radiotherapy.MethodsFirstly, qualitative interviews were held with patients and health care professionals. Secondly, in the development phase, thinking aloud sessions were organized with four patients and 12 health care professionals, individual and group-wise.ResultsConsensus was reached on a pictograph illustrating the whole range of uncertainty for local recurrence risks, in combination with textual explanation that a more exact personalized risk would be given by their own physician. The pictograph consisted of 100 female icons in a 10 x 10 array. Icons with a stepwise gradient color indicated the uncertainty margin. The prevalence and severity of possible side-effects were explained using verbal labels.ConclusionsWe developed a novel way of visualizing uncertainties in recurrence rates in a patient decision aid. The effect of this way of communicating risk uncertainty is currently being tested in the BRASA study (NCT03375801).     

术前预后营养指数对肺癌术后并发症风险的预测价值

目的:探讨术前预后营养指数（prognostic nutritional index，PNI）对肺癌术后并发症风险的预测价值。方法:回顾分析2015年12月至2018年3月于我院行手术治疗的非小细胞肺癌患者180例，收集患者的临床资料以及术后并发症的发生情况，采用Logistic回归分析患者术后并发症的影响因素。结果:多因素Logistic回归分析表明，术前低PNI值是术后并发症Clavien-Dindo评分≥II级的独立危险因素（OR:1.10，95%CI:1.02~1.17，P=0.023）；根据术前PNI值将患者分为三组，分别为PNI≥50组（n=113）、45≤PNI<50组（n=47）、PNI<45组（n=20），各组术后并发症Clavien-Dindo评分≥II级以及Clavien-Dindo评分≥III级发生的比例分别为22.1%、40.4%、40.0%和6.2%、17.0%、25.0%，不同PNI值术后并发症发生率存在显著差异；PNI值可作为术后并发症发生风险及气胸、肺外感染的独立危险因素。结论:PNI值可作为肺癌患者术后并发症风险的有效预测因子。     

营养风险与腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的相关性研究

目的 探讨营养风险与腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的相关性。方法 采用回顾性研究，选取2012年1月至2018年12月四川大学华西医院血管外科新入院腹膜后肿瘤患者60例，采用营养风险筛查表评估患者营养风险，收集患者体质指数、围术期血红蛋白和白蛋白水平、住院天数、术后恶心呕吐发生情况、术后排气、排便时间和首次进食时间。采用单因素分析比较不同患者住院时间，采用多重线性逐步回归分析患者住院时间的影响因素。结果 纳入的60例腹膜后肿瘤患者中，40例患者（66.7%）术前存在营养风险，52例患者（86.7%）术后存在营养风险；单因素分析显示，患者术前、术后营养风险 （术前P<0.001，术后P=0.043）、术前白蛋白 （P=0.019）、术后血红蛋白 （P=0.019）、术后白蛋白（P=0.025） 水平以及术后恶心呕吐 （P=0.001） 均会影响患者的住院时间；患者住院时间与围术期营养风险筛查工具评分、术后首次进食时间、术后排气时间和排便时间具有相关性，且相关性强（r=0.759~0.770； P<0.01）；多因素分析显示术前营养风险是腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的重要预测因素（β=0.399）。结论 术前营养风险是腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的预测因子。     

Personal trauma among healthcare providers: implications for screening practices

ABSTRACT

Screening rates for trauma are low in health care settings. We examined the association between health care providers’ (HCPs) experience of physical or sexual trauma and their screening of female patients for trauma. HCPs at an urban academic medical institution were surveyed from September through November 2016. The Brief Trauma (BTQ) and Sexual and Physical Abuse History Questionnaires (SPAHQ) assessed their own experiences of trauma. The Screening Practices Questionnaire (SPQ) assessed HCPs trauma screening. Multiple regression analyses were performed. Among 212 respondents aged 22–67 years, most were female (78.3%) and white (76.1%). Nurses (41.0%) were the largest occupational group. Overall, 85.8% reported having experienced trauma. No significant difference was observed in median SPQ scores between HCPs who had experienced trauma (3.88 [Interquartile Range (IQR) 3.44–4.31]) and those who had not (4.00 [IQR 3.47–4.33], p = .645). In an adjusted model, screening policy awareness and having an obstetrics & gynecology or psychiatry specialty were associated with higher SPQ scores (p < .001). The prevalence of trauma experience in this sample was high, but not associated with screening. Screening policy awareness and practice specialty were associated with screening. HCP factors associated with greater trauma screening should be explored.     

Risk stratification in breast cancer screening: Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios for low-risk and high-risk women

In mammography screening programmes, women are screened according to a one-size-fits-all principle. Tailored screening, based on risk levels, may lead to a better balance of benefits and harms. With microsimulation modelling, we determined optimal mammography screening strategies for women at lower (relative risk [RR] 0.75) and higher (RR 1.8) than average risk of breast cancer, eligible for screening, using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of current uniform screening in the Netherlands (biennial [B] 50-74) as a threshold ICER. Strategies varied by interval (annual [A], biennial, triennial [T]) and age range. The number of life-years gained (LYG), breast cancer deaths averted, overdiagnosed cases, false-positive mammograms, ICERs and harm-benefit ratios were calculated. Optimal risk-based screening scenarios, below the threshold ICER of €8883/LYG, were T50-71 (€7840/LYG) for low-risk and B40-74 (€6062/LYG) for high-risk women. T50-71 screening in low-risk women resulted in a 33% reduction in false-positive findings, a similar reduction in costs and improved harm-benefit ratios compared to the current screening schedule. B40-74 in high-risk women led to an increase in screening benefit, compared to current B50-74 screening, but a relatively higher increase in false-positive findings. In conclusion, optimal screening consisted of a longer interval and lower stopping age than current uniform screening for low-risk women, and a lower starting age for high-risk women. Extending the interval for women at lower risk from biennial to triennial screening reduced harms and costs while maintaining most of the screening benefit.     

Patterns in metabolite profile are associated with risk of more aggressive prostate cancer: A prospective study of 3,057 matched case–control sets from EPIC

Metabolomics may reveal novel insights into the etiology of prostate cancer, for which few risk factors are established. We investigated the association between patterns in baseline plasma metabolite profile and subsequent prostate cancer risk, using data from 3,057 matched case–control sets from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We measured 119 metabolite concentrations in plasma samples, collected on average 9.4 years before diagnosis, by mass spectrometry (AbsoluteIDQ p180 Kit, Biocrates Life Sciences AG). Metabolite patterns were identified using treelet transform, a statistical method for identification of groups of correlated metabolites. Associations of metabolite patterns with prostate cancer risk (OR_1SD) were estimated by conditional logistic regression. Supplementary analyses were conducted for metabolite patterns derived using principal component analysis and for individual metabolites. Men with metabolite profiles characterized by higher concentrations of either phosphatidylcholines or hydroxysphingomyelins (OR_1SD = 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.66–0.89), acylcarnitines C18:1 and C18:2, glutamate, ornithine and taurine (OR_1SD = 0.72, 0.57–0.90), or lysophosphatidylcholines (OR_1SD = 0.81, 0.69–0.95) had lower risk of advanced stage prostate cancer at diagnosis, with no evidence of heterogeneity by follow-up time. Similar associations were observed for the two former patterns with aggressive disease risk (the more aggressive subset of advanced stage), while the latter pattern was inversely related to risk of prostate cancer death (OR_1SD = 0.77, 0.61–0.96). No associations were observed for prostate cancer overall or less aggressive tumor subtypes. In conclusion, metabolite patterns may be related to lower risk of more aggressive prostate tumors and prostate cancer death, and might be relevant to etiology of advanced stage prostate cancer.