上海市卢湾区居民日死亡数与大气污染关系的时间序列研究

[目的]分析上海市卢湾区大气污染急性暴露对居民每日死亡数的影响。[方法]分别采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型(GAM)和广义线性模型(GLM),在控制死亡的长期趋势、气象因素、“星期几效应”等混杂因素的基础上,分析上海市卢湾区2001年1月1日~2004年12月31日大气污染与居民每日死亡数的关系。[结果]在GAM中大气可吸入颗粒物(PM10),SO2和NO2,48h平均浓度每增加10μg/m3,居民死亡的相对危险度分别为1.0003(95%CI1.0000~1.0007)、1.0009(95%CI0.9998~1.0019)和1.0012(95%CI1.0003~1.0021);在GLM中大气PM10,SO2和NO2,48h平均浓度每增加10μg/m3,居民死亡的相对危险度分别为1.0004(95%CI1.0001~1.0008)、1.0008(95%CI0.9998~1.0019)和1.0012(95%CI1.0002~1.0022)。[结论]GAM、GLM拟和结果相似,上海市卢湾区目前的PM10和NO2水平对居民日死亡数有影响。     

Do pollution time-series studies contain uncontrolled or residual confounding by risk factors for acute health events?

Acute health effects from air pollution are based largely on weak associations identified in time-series studies comparing daily air pollution levels to daily mortality. Much of this mortality is due to cardiovascular disease. Time-series studies have many potential limitations, but are not thought to be confounded by traditional cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., smoking status or hypertension) because these chronic risk factors are not obviously associated with daily pollution levels. However, acute psychobehavioral variants of these risk factors (e.g., smoking patterns and episodes of stress on any given day) are plausible confounders for the associations observed in time-series studies, given that time-series studies attempt to predict acute rather than chronic health outcomes. There is a fairly compelling literature on the strong link between cardiovascular events and daily "triggers" such as stress. Stress-related triggers are plausibly associated with daily pollution levels through surrogate stressors such as ambient temperature, daily workload, local traffic congestion, or other correlates of air pollution. For example, variables such as traffic congestion and industrial activity increase both stress-related health events and air pollution, suggesting the potential for classical confounding. Support for this argument is illustrated through examples of the well-demonstrated relationship between emotional stress and heart attack/stroke.     

Excess mortality patterns during 1918–1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona,USA

Purpose

Our understanding of the temporal dynamics and age-specific mortality patterns of the 1918–1921 influenza pandemic remains scarce due to lack of detailed respiratory mortality datasets in the United States and abroad.

Diurnal biting periodicity of parous Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors in the onchocerciasis Amazonian focus

We describe the hourly patterns of parous biting activity of the three main simuliid vectors of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, namely, Simulium guianense s.l. Wise; S. incrustatum Lutz, and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc. Time series of the hourly numbers of host-seeking parous flies caught in five Yanomami villages during dry, rainy, and their transition periods from 1995 to 2001 were investigated using harmonic analysis (assuming an underlying circadian rhythm) and periodic correlation (based on Spearman's r). Parous S guianense s.l. showed a bimodal activity pattern, with a minor peak in mid-morning and a major peak at 16:00 h. S. incrustatum exhibited mainly unimodal activity during either early morning or midday according to locality. S. oyapockense s.l. bit humans throughout the day mainly between 10:00 and 16:00 h but also showed bimodal periodicity in some localities. Superimposed on the endogenous, species-specific daily cycles, parous activity showed variation according to locality, season, air temperature and relative humidity, with biting being promoted by warmer and drier hours during wet seasons/periods and reduced during hotter times in dry seasons or transitions. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for blackfly biology and ecology as well as onchocerciasis epidemiology and control.     

Population exposure to ultraviolet radiation in Finland 1920-1995: Exposure trends and a time-series analysis of exposure and cutaneous melanoma incidence

Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is the principal cause of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). However, the relation between CMM and UVR exposure is not clear. We present the trends of population exposure to UVR and conduct a time-series analysis of the relation between UVR exposure and incidence of CMM. Data on CMM incidence were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Clothing coverage of the body was scored from archival photographs and the proportion of uncovered skin was used as a measure of solar exposure. Information on the number of sunny resort holidays, duration of annual holidays, and sunscreen sales were obtained from various sources. Exposed skin area doubled from 1920 to 1985. The average duration of annual holidays increased 30-fold. The number of sunny resort holidays and the sales of sunscreens increased rapidly from 1980. CMM was most strongly associated with solar exposure of 5-19 years earlier. There is a considerable decrease in clothing coverage during the 20th century. UVR exposure preceding CMM occurrence 4 years or less does not appear relevant, whereas the period 5-19 years prior to CMM occurrence might be the most relevant period. However, findings of ecological studies may not be applicable at the individual level.     

京津两地不同温度水平下大气PM_(10)与居民每日死亡关系的时间序列研究

目的探讨北京市和天津市不同温度水平下大气可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))与居民每日死亡的定量关系。方法收集北京市和天津市2007年1月1日至2009年12月31日的每日大气PM_(10)、每日平均温度、每日平均相对湿度、每日居民不同病因别死亡人数,建立时间序列数据库。将每日温度分成低(P_(50))、中(P_(50)~P_(75))、高(P_(75))3个层次,采用广义相加模型,分析两城市大气PM_(10)与居民每日不同病因别死亡的相关性。结果对于总死亡,北京市和天津市高、中温水平下大气PM_(10)的超额危险度(excess risk,ER)明显高于低温水平,且中温水平下效应值最大,两城市的ER分别为0.46%(95%CI:0.18%~0.75%)和0.87%(95%CI:0.34%~1.41%);对于循环系统死亡,北京市和天津市高、中温水平下大气PM_(10)的超额危险度明显高于低温水平,且高温水平下的超额危险度值更大,两城市的ER分别为0.52%(95%CI:0.07%~0.98%)和1.13%(95%CI:0.43%~1.83%);对于呼吸系统死亡,北京和天津市中温水平下大气PM_(10)的超额危险度最大,两城市的ER分别为0.99%(95%CI:0.16%~1.74%)和1.48%(95%CI:0.25%~1.95%)。结论不同温度水平下,北京市和天津市大气PM_(10)污染致居民死亡的急性效应不同,中高温水平下,大气PM_(10)的健康效应值更大。制定人群大气污染健康效应公共政策时,需考虑温度对其影响的修饰作用。     

银川市大气颗粒物对人群循环系统疾病死亡影响的时间序列分析

目的探讨银川市大气颗粒物污染水平及其对居民循环系统疾病死亡的暴露-反应关系。方法通过收集银川市2013—2015年空气质量监测数据、气象监测数据和居民死亡监测资料,采用广义相加模型,分析银川市大气颗粒物物对与居民循环系统疾病死亡的暴露-反应关系。结果大气PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)年均浓度均超过GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》二级标准。大气PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m~3对人群循环系统疾病死亡的超额危险度分别为0.56%(95%CI:0.15%~0.97%),1.33%(95%CI:0.46%~2.21%);大气PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度对小于65岁组的循环系统疾病死亡的影响无统计学意义(P0.05),对65岁以上年龄组人群循环系统疾病死亡的超额危险度分别在滞后7、5 d时达到最大效应,分别为1.24%(95%CI:0.21%~2.28%)和0.57%(95%CI:0.08%~1.06%);大气PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)浓度对女性循环系统疾病死亡的超额危险度高于男性。结论研究期间银川市大气颗粒物浓度较高,且对人群循环系统疾病死亡存在一定的暴露-反应关系。     

High ambient temperature and mortality in California: exploring the roles of age, disease, and mortality displacement

Investigators have consistently demonstrated associations between elevated temperatures and mortality worldwide. Few have recently focused on identifying vulnerable subgroups, and far fewer have determined whether at least some of the observed effect may be a manifestation of mortality displacement. We examined mean daily apparent temperature and mortality in 13 counties in California during the warm season from 1999 to 2006 to identify age and disease subgroups that are at increased risk, and to evaluate the potential effect of mortality displacement. The time-series method using the Poisson regression was applied for data analysis for single lag days of 0–20 days, and for cumulative average lag days of five and ten days. Significant associations were observed for the same-day (excess risk=4.3% per 5.6 °C increase in apparent temperature, 95% confidence interval: 3.4, 5.2) continuing up to a maximum of three days following apparent temperature exposure for non-accidental mortality. Similar risks were found for mortality from cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and among children zero to 18 years of age, and adults and the elderly 50 years and older. Since no significant negative effects were observed in the following single or cumulative days, evidence of mortality displacement was not found. Thus, the effect of temperature on mortality appears to be an event that occurs within three days following exposure, and requires immediate attention for prevention.     

Auditory feedback affects the long-range correlation of isochronous serial interval production: support for a closed-loop or memory model of timing

Long-range dependence is a characteristic property of successively produced time intervals, such as in un-paced or continuation tapping. We hypothesise in the present paper that serial dependence in such tasks could be related to a closed-loop regulation process, in which the current interval is determined by preceding ones. As a consequence, the quality of sensory feedback is likely to affect serial dependence. An experiment with human participants shows that diminished sensory information tends to increase the Hurst exponent for short inter-onset intervals and tends to decrease it for long intervals. A simulation shows that a simple auto-regressive model, whose order depends on the ratio between the inter-onset interval and an assumed temporal integration span, is able to account for most of our empirical results, including the duration specificity of long-range correlation.

广州和珠海市气温对居民寿命损失年影响的时间序列分析

目的 评估气温对居民寿命损失年(YLL)的影响。方法 收集广州、珠海市居民逐日死亡和气象数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温对人群YLL风险的累积效应,以及广州和珠海市在高温(0~1 d)和低温(0~13 d)时对人群YLL累积风险大小。结果 广州和珠海市日均YLL值分别为1 928.0和202.5;两市气温与YLL之间呈现非线性关系。热效应表现急促,当天达到最大值;冷效应出现相对缓慢,滞后5 d达到最大效应,持续时间约2周;低温对人群的总效应大于高温;广州市低温对男性影响大于女性;两市高/低温对≥65岁人群的YLL风险均大于<65岁人群,患呼吸系统疾病人群的YLL风险大于患心血管疾病人群。结论 广州和珠海市高/低温均导致居民的YLL风险增加,其中低温影响更大。老年人及患呼吸系统和心血管疾病者为脆弱人群。