沈阳市大气污染对死亡率的影响

采用生态学研究和时间序列研究两种方法，分析了沈阳市大气污染对总死亡率及各种急、慢性病因的影响（用１９９２年死亡资料），在按市环保历年监测数据分成高、中、低３个污染区后，３区间差异有显著性者为总死亡率、慢性阻塞性肺疾患（ＣＯＰＤ）、心脑血管病、总癌和结核。时间序列研究全市每天死亡率与死前３天平均污染水平（ＴＳＰ和ＳＯ２），在调控当天气温和气湿后，分析污染与死亡的相关。得知：与污染水平相关有显著性者有总死亡率、ＣＯＰＤ、心脑血管病。ＴＳＰ每增加１００μｇ／ｍ３，三类死因各增加２％、３％、２％；ＳＯ２每增加１００μｇ／ｍ３，三类死因各增加２％、７％、２％。ＣＯＰＤ和ＳＯ２相关更密切，而心脑血管病与ＴＳＰ相关更密切。提示大气污染物除造成居民健康慢性损害外，还有加剧此等慢性病人病情，加速死亡的作用。     

孔林内有瓣蝇类新记录种调查报告

本文报告了作者1989～1990年在孔林内用诱蝇笼与网捕法进行蝇种等调查研究的结果,发现了山东省新记录蝇类23种,并对其分布特点,出现不同类型的原因等进行了描述和分析。     

Changes in outlet densities affect violence rates

BACKGROUND: Previous assessments of empirical relationships between alcohol outlets and rates of interpersonal violence have been conducted using cross-sectional spatial data, data collected across small geographic units such as Census Tracts and zip codes. These assessments demonstrate that the availability of alcohol, measured by the number and types of alcohol outlets, is related to violence. These analyses have examined many potential confounds of the outlets-violence connection (i.e., population and place characteristics) and statistically corrected for biases that arise in analyses of spatial data. The current study contributes the first observation of longitudinal relationships between alcohol outlets and violence. METHOD: The study examined longitudinal data from 581 consistently defined zip code areas represented in the California Index Locations Database, a geographic information system that coordinates population and ecological data with spatial attributes for areas across the state. Six years of data were collected on features of local populations (e.g., household size) and places (e.g., retail markets) thought to be related to 1 measure of violence (i.e., hospital discharges related to violent assaults). Assault rates were related to changes in population and place characteristics using random effects models with controls for spatial autocorrelation (n x t = 3,486 observations). Changes in population and place characteristics of bordering (spatial lagged) areas were also considered. RESULTS: Lower median household income and greater percentages of minorities (African American, Hispanic, and Asian) were related to increased rates of violence. Ten percent increases in numbers of off-premise outlets and bars were related to 1.67 and 2.06% increases in violence rates across local and lagged spatial areas. Every 6 outlets accounted for 1 additional violent assault that resulted in at least 1 overnight stay at hospital. These effects increased with larger male populations, doubling with every 3% increase in percent males. CONCLUSION: Assault rates were most strongly related to median household incomes and minority populations within zip code areas. Controlling for changes in assault rates related to these measures, greater numbers of licensed alcohol retail establishments, especially bars and off-premise outlets, were related to rates of assault. Failures to regulate the growth in numbers of bars will increase rates of violence, especially in urban areas.     

Interactional Theory: Its Utility in Explaining Drug Use Behavior Among African-American and Puerto Rican Youth

Using a developmental family interactional theoretical framework giving primacy to the mutual attachment between parent and child, this study examines the interrelationship of acculturation, ecological, family, personality, peer and drug context domains with drug use. The extent to which family protective factors mitigated against risks for drug use from the remaining domains was assessed. The inner-city sample consisted of 695 African-American and 637 Puerto Rican 7th-10th graders. Hierarchical regression analyses supported the hypothesized sequence of interrelationships in both ethnic groups.     

利用偏最小二乘回归拟合耐药性结核病的总耐药率

[目的]探索偏最小二乘回归在结核病生态学研究中的应用,拟合耐药性结核病总耐药率的生态学预测模型。[方法]利用WHO第四次全球耐药结核病监测报告,将偏最小二乘回归和Bootstrap抽样相结合,对回归系数进行检验。[结果]最终得到的偏最小二乘回归方程为^Y=5.521+0.030X1+0.003X7+0.099X9-0.008X15+0.116X18。[结论]在结核病生态学研究中,利用偏最小二乘回归和Bootstrap回归系数假设检验相结合的向后筛选法,可以拟合耐药性结核病总耐药率。     

南通市中学生校园欺凌现况及社会生态学影响分析

探索中学校园欺凌现况及社会生态学影响因素,为中学校园欺凌的防控与治理提供参考依据.方法 采用分层整群抽样方法在南通市主城区抽取1 169名中学生为调查对象,采用中学生校园欺凌问卷及自编相关问题进行调查.结果 初中生被欺凌和欺凌得分高于高中生(t值分别为3.61,2.53,P值均<0.05),普通中学学生得分高于重点中学学生(f值分别为12.52,8.34,P值均<0.01),同伴关系较差学生得分高于较好学生(F值分别为8.98,25.89,P值均<0.01),校园纪律较差学生得分高于关系较好学生(F值分别为8.50,10.00,P值均<0.01),校园欺凌防治政策欠缺学生得分高于政策完善学校学生(F值分别为8.30,2.67,P值均<0.05),父母教育方式为干涉型和忽视型学生得分高于商讨型学生(F=3.66,P<0.05).多因Logistic回归分析显示,高中学段、重点中学、同伴关系较好、商讨型教育方式、校园学风纪律较好、校园欺凌防治政策完善是中学生校园欺凌的保护因素(OR=1.68~4.28,P值均<0.05),性别、独生子女与否是中学生校园欺凌的危险因素(OR值分别为1.54,1.68,P值均<0.05);结构方程模型分析显示,中学校园欺凌的路径是以中学生个体因素为中心,通过与人际、组织、政策等层面因素相互作用产生影响.结论 学校、家庭和社会应从中学生个体、人际、组织、政策等社会生态学层面对校园欺凌进行预防和干预,构建安全健康校园.     

东洞庭湖秋冬季节钉螺生存状态及其影响因素的研究

目的 研究秋冬季节钉螺种群的动态变化及水位和气象因素与钉螺消长的关系。方法 选择2007-2014年10-12月,以东洞庭湖区的草滩为现场,系统抽样查螺,同时测量调查点的高程以及收集水位和气象资料,计算各年水淹天数和开始水淹时间。描述钉螺及可能影响因素的分布情况,用多元回归模型研究水位和气象因素与钉螺密度的关系。结果 钉螺密度呈波动变化,最高值在2012年10月,为41.88只/0.1 m2;最低值在2008年11月,为1.23只/0.1 m2。死亡率最高出现在 2008年11月,为73.72 %;最低出现在2012年10月,为1.09%。多元回归模型拟合发现1月平均最低温度和开始水淹时间与ln（钉螺密度）之间存在线性关系。利用该模型计算得到的ln（钉螺密度）的预测值与实际值的相关系数为0.927（P = 0.001）。 结论 在东洞庭湖,1月份平均最低温度和开始水淹时间对当年秋冬季的钉螺密度有一定的影响。     

某电解铝厂周边环境的实验研究

目的研究铝工业对周围环境、生态和健康的影响。方法对某电解铝厂周围不同方向、距离和不同深度的土壤以及不同方向、距离的植物、河水、雨水标本,用原子吸收分光光度计测定铝的含量,并用方差分析和t检验统计处理数据。结果雨水:初接雨水比后接雨水铝含量高(P0.01),河水:排污口上游河水铝含量明显低于排污口下游(P0.01),排污口下游50 m与500 m差异亦有统计学意义(P0.01)。土壤:东南西北4个方向的土壤总体上差异有统计学意义,南面比北面差异有统计学意义(P0.05);距厂区500 m的土壤与1000 m的差异尚无统计学意义(P0.05);表层土、深30 cm、深50 cm的土壤铝含量差异无统计学意义(P0.05);植物:除西面1号植物稍高于其他方向外(无统计学意义),500 m和1000 m不同距离之间,1号植物和2号植物各方向和距离之间差异均无统计学意义(P0.05)。结论该铝厂排放的铝对空气、水源已有一定的影响,而对土壤、植物的影响还不明显。