A preliminary statistical model for identifying repeaters of parasuicide

This paper presents a statistical model constructed using logisticregression to identify those at high-risk of repeating parasuicide. Thesubjects in the study are Cork city residents who exhibited parasuicidalbehaviour between 1 January and 30 June 1995. Repetition of the behaviourwithin six months of the index episode distinguishes repeaters fromnon-repeaters. The model was designed so that it could be used bynon-clinicians and hence does not require information relating topsychiatric diagnosis or use of psychiatric services. The proportion ofsubjects correctly classified remained stable across a range of cut-pointprobabilities (mean = 86%, range: 83.9–87.5%). Using acut-point of 0.2, 96% of repeaters and 81% of non-repeaters were correctly classified. Using 0.45 led to the correct identification of81% of repeaters and 90% of non-repeaters. If these highlevels of sensitivity and specificity are maintained in validation tests onfuture cohorts in Cork city then the model could form the basis of anintervention programme designed to prevent the repetition of parasuicide.     

指示肺通气不均匀性的熵变及其同其他指标的理论比较

熵代表无序的水平，作者使用通气的熵变（ＥＣＶ）指示肺通气的不均匀性，ＥＣＶ定义为当前泡潮气量趋近于零时每摩尔被吸入气体从不均匀通气到均匀通气的熵变的极限。本文从熵的基本公式民地出ＥＣＶ的计算方程。用几个数学模型肺将ＥＣＶ同其他７个洗出指标进行了比较。８个指标中，只有ＥＣＶ仅取决于通气分布，其他７个指标不仅取决于通气分布，还同潮气量和死腔的大小有关。这影响了它们评价肺通气不均匀性的效果，ＥＣＶ的另一     

Transactional models of early education effectiveness - What is the message for policy?

There is now a substantial body of American research evidence demonstrating that early education programmes can have major long term effects right through into adult life. Cost-benefit analysis has enabled the data to be transformed into a compelling case for public financial investment. But insufficient attention has been paid to explaining how a short term preschool programme could have such enduring effects. The effects are best understood by applying a transactional model which shows how processes in the school and community transformed and amplified short term effects into long term outcomes. Adopting a transactional model modifies the messages for policy. The results of evaluations carried out in one society may not apply in another. In some school systems there may be more effective strategies than early education for improving educational prospects.     

Ethanol regulated preference in rats

A series of experiments evaluated the determinants of preference for mixtures of ethanol plus sucrose relative to sucrose in rats. One dipper served 10% ethanol mixed with 10% sucrose, and the second dipper served 10% sucrose. Lever presses operated each dipper according to a variable-interval 5-s schedule. In three experiments the subjects were given pre-session meals of sucrose (2.5–20 ml) or sucrose (20 ml) plus chow (5 or 10 g). Pre-session meals decreased responding maintained by sucrose but not responding maintained by ethanol mixture. In two experiments body weight was varied from 85% to 125% of the initial free-feeding values. Increases in body weight, like pre-session meals, decreased responding reinforced by sucrose, but typically did not decrease responding reinforced by ethanol mixture. Throughout most of the study, ethanol consumption remained at about 1.25 ml per half hour session (3–4 g/kg per 30 min). For example, pre-session access to ethanol mixture decreased within-session ethanol consumption, but total consumption, counting both sources, remained about 1.25 ml/session. The within-session patterns of responding also differed. Responding reinforced by ethanol mix decreased as a function of ethanol consumption, whereas responding reinforced by sucrose was relatively constant throughout the session. The simplest explanation of the results is that ethanol's pharmacological consequences regulated preference.     

实验性尘细胞灶与胸片细网状阴影形成的关系

本文从21只实验性矽肺家兔中筛选出5只胸片有细网状阴影者,用病理与 X 线对照观察的方法,探讨了实验性矽肺尘细胞灶与死后胸片细网状阴影形成的关系。证明,分布在肺细叶内直径约1mm 的尘细胞灶,其分布密度为113个/cm~2以上时,可构成胸片细网状阴影。实验排除了弥漫性肺间质纤维化的结论。并对胸片细网状阴影的形成从肺细叶解剖与 X 线投影进行了讨论。     

A rat model of monitoring liver allograft rejection

Rat models are often used to study liver allograft rejection. We have established a model for rat liver allograft rejection, monitored by fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB), in the strain combination PVG-to-BN with a mean survival time of 37 ± 20 days. In this model, we observed acute rejection with an intense peak of lymphoid blasts and lymphocyte-dominated inflammation in the FNAB [9.1 ± 3.0 corrected increment units (CIU)], and an eventual increase in macrophages (up to 4.2 ± 4.4 CIU), together with fibrosis and parenchymal necrosis in the graft. Markers of immune activation, such as an increase in IL-2-receptor (from 1 % ± 2 % to 21 % ± 13 %) and class II (from 20 % ± 9 % to 43 % ± 13 %) expressing lymphoid cells and induction of ICAM-1 in the graft, were consistent with the overall cellular response. The FNAB correlated well with parallel graft histology. In this rat model, the atraumatic monitoring makes a close follow-up possible without having to sacrifice the experimental animals. This saves work, animals, and costs in the study of liver rejection. Received: 2 July 1996 Accepted: 28 October 1996     

缩窄门静脉主干1／2加丝线慢性栓塞术制备犬门静脉高压症模型

目的:探索操作简便且效果满意的门静脉高压症动物模型制备方法.方法:缩窄门静脉主干1/2加丝线慢性栓塞术,通过22条犬进行实验.结果:除1条死亡外.其余21条术后3～4周时门静脉压力升高至2.83±0.66kPa(术前1.33±0.28kPa,P<0.001):胃镜、门静脉造影及病理学检查证实,17条犬有食管胃底曲张静脉形成,形成率80.95%(其中方法完善后制备的14条、形成率100%),12条发生门脉高压性胃病,发生率57.14%.1条观察至术后4月.门静脉高压症表现仍然存在.结论:该法简便易行、建立模型周期短、成功率高且质量可靠并较持久.     

过度训练的病理生理及康复 Ⅰ.大鼠过度训练模型的建立

实验表明,运用大鼠跑台运动,以心电图、体重、饮食量、精神状况、毛发脱落、尿蛋白、血清睾酮、皮质醇等为监测指标建立大鼠过度训练模型的方法是可行的。本文并首次模拟出大鼠运动性心律失常心电图。     

Local health services: some lessons from their evolution in Bolivia

Summary For a decade, numerous projects in Bolivia have tried to put in practice the concept of local health systems. But, so far, no significant changes have been made and local health services still are the 'poor relation' of the system. The main components of the project—expansion of health facilities, training of health personnel and institutional decentralization—were not designed to respond to the complexity of the problems encountered. Decentralization was implemented at the level of health districts but not accompanied by redefinition of functions at the central level, and challenged by civil servants' attempts to save their jobs. While training activities did introduce new methods and subjects, they were too often reduced to short workshops or seminars. Health facilities were built without regard for their significance beyond health care. A strategic approach is needed to adapt the planning process to the degree of liberty allowed by society.