Predicting the experience of dentinal caries or restorative dental treatment in adolescents using D1 and D3 visual caries assessments

Standardised epidemiological caries assessments used in oral health surveys have been shown to be poor at predicting whether a tooth surface will be treated restoratively when a patient visits a dentist. However, it has been argued that oral health surveys may be more relevant in determining needs at the level of an individual or groups of individuals. The objective of this study was to determine the discriminatory power of visual caries assessments at two thresholds (D₁ & D₃) in adolescents of average age 12.1 years to predict experience of dentinal caries 3 years later or the experience of restorative treatment (not re‐treatment) during the 3‐year period. The data was derived from a prospective 3‐year longitudinal study in which the dental care provided by 41 dentists for 403 adolescents was monitored. Dental caries experience was monitored by annual standardised assessments of caries undertaken by a single trained examiner. ROC analysis showed that caries assessed visually at the D₁ threshold in 12‐year‐olds was a better predictor (P < 0.001) of experiencing some dentinal caries after 3 years (Az = 0.781) than was caries assessed visually at D₃ threshold in 12‐year‐olds (Az = 0.670). Assessing caries visually at either the D₁ or the D₃ threshold had no discriminatory power for predicting whether an individual would experience some restorative treatment during the ensuing 3‐year period (Az for D₁ = 0.507; Az for D₃ = 0.518).     

Acute subdural hematoma: Outcome and outcome prediction

Patients with traumatic acute subdural hematoma were studied to determine the factors influencing outcome.Between January 1986 and August 1995, we collected 113 patients who underwent craniotomy for traumatic acute subdural hematoma. The relationship between initial clinical signs and the outcome 3 months after admission was studied retrospectively.Functional recovery was achieved in 38% of patients and the mortality was 60%. 91% of patients with a high Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (9–15) and 23% of patients with a low GCS score (3–8) achieved functional recovery. All of 14 patients with a GCS score of 3 died. The mortality of patients with GCS scores of 4 and 5 was 95% to 75%, respectively. Patients over 61 years old had a mortality of 73% compared to 64% mortality for those aged 21–40 years. 97% of patients with bilateral unreactive pupil and 81% of patients with unilateral unreactive pupil died. The mortality rates of associated intracranial lesions were 91% in intracerebral hematoma, 87% in subarachnoid hemorrhage, 75% in contusion.Time from injury to surgical evacuation and type of surgical intervention did not affect mortality. Age and associated intracranial lesions were related to outcome. Severity of injury and pupillary response were the most important factors for predicting outcome.     

Electrocardiographic and Clinical Predictors of Torsades de Pointes Induced by Almokalant Infusion in Patients with Chronic Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Prospective Study

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of torsades de pointes (TdP) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) or flutter exposed to the Class III antiarrhythmic drug almokalant. TdP can be caused by drugs that prolong myocardial repolarization. One hundred patients received almokalant infusion during AF (infusion 1) and 62 of the patients during sinus rhythm (SR) on the following day (infusion 2). Thirty-two patients converted to SR. Six patients developed TdP. During AF, T wave alternans was more common prior to infusion (baseline) in patients developing TdP (50% vs 4%, P < 0.01). After 30 minutes of infusion 1, the TdP patients exhibited a longer QT interval (493 ± 114 vs 443 ± 54 ms [mean ± SD], P < 0.01), a larger precordial QT dispersion (50 ± 74 vs 27 ± 26 ms, P < 0.05), and a lower T wave amplitude (0.12 ± 0.22 vs 0.24 ± 0.16 mV. P < 0.01). After 30 minutes of infusion 2, they exhibited a longer QT interval (672 ± 26 vs 489 ± 74 ms, P < 0.001), a larger QT dispersion in precordial (82 ± 7 vs 54 ± 52 ms, P < 0.01) and extremity leads (163 ± 0 vs 40 ± 34 ms, P < 0.001), and T wave alternans was more common (100% vs 0%, P < 0.001). Risk factors for development of TdP were at baseline: female gender, ventricular extrasystoles, and treatment with diuretics; and, after 30 minutes of infusion: sequential bilateral bundle branch block, ventricular extrasystoles in bigeminy, and a biphasic T wave. Patients developing TdP exhibited early during almokalant infusion a pronounced QT prolongation, increased QT dispersion, and marked morphological T wave changes.     

Prediction of lactose malabsorption in referral patients

Two hundred forty-two patients referred for various gastrointestinal complaints were evaluated for clinical parameters that would predict findings of lactose malabsorption. Breath hydrogen and blood glucose lactose tests were performed after ingestion of 50 g lactose. Presenting complaints, duration of symptoms, and patient demographics such as age, sex, and ethnic heritage were not different between lactose malabsorbers and absorbers as defined by the breath hydrogen lactose test. Foodrelated symptoms in general and after specific foods such as milk, ice cream, cheese, and yogurt were also similar between groups. Prior to testing, 30% of malabsorbers (N=161) and 36% of absorbers (N=81) reported lactoserelated symptoms (P=NS). The blood glucose response to lactose was abnormal in 60% of malabsorbers and 15% of absorbers. This study confirmed our impression that it is difficult to predict lactose absorption status by clinical parameters. The majority of our lactose malabsorber patients were unaware of lactose-associated symptoms. Furthermore, symptom assessment, demographics, food history, and blood glucose testing did not predict abnormal hydrogen responses to lactose.The opinions and assertations expressed herein are those of the authors and are not to be construed as reflecting opinions of the United States Air Force or the Department of Defense.This work has been presented in part at the Annual Scientific Session of the American Gastroenterological Association, San Francisco, California, May 19, 1986, and published as an abstract (Gastroenterology 90:1562, 1986).     

Photodynamic therapy of tumours: value of quantum chemical procedures for characterization of new drugs. Prediction of the electronic structure of zinc(II) phthalocyanine with special emphasis on triplet state excitation energies

Zinc(II) phthalocyanine is the active component of the liposomal formulation CGP 55847 which showed a high activity in photodynamic therapy in a variety of animal tumours. The photophysical properties of zinc(II) phthalocyanine have been studied in detail and compared to those of Photofrin, the only sensitizing agent approved so far for phase III/IV clinical trials. Since the efficacy of photodynamic therapy intrinsically depends on the spectroscopic features of the sensitizer, quantum chemical methods have proven to be an efficient means for optimizing chemical structures. As will be shown, a simple modification of the time-honoured INDO model of Pople allows a prediction of the singlet and triplet state properties of molecules of the size of zinc(II) phthalocyanine with an rms error of ≤ 1000 cm⁻¹.     

Clinical predictors of suicidal acts after major depression in bipolar disorder: a prospective study

Objective:  This study determined the clinical predictors of suicidal behavior during a 2-year follow-up of patients with bipolar disorder presenting with a major depressive episode (MDE).
Method:  Sixty four patients with DSM-III-R bipolar disorder were assessed at presentation for treatment of an MDE. Correlates of past suicidal behavior were determined by comparing patients with and without a history of suicide attempts using a t -test, Wilcoxon test or chi-squared test of independence on individual explanatory variables. Putative predictors of attempts during the follow-up period were tested separately using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.
Results:  Twelve of 64 patients had at least one suicide attempt in the follow-up period, five of them attempted in the first 2 months and seven around or shortly after the 1-year follow-up visit. All attempters had a history of past suicide attempts. Most predictors of future suicidal behavior were correlates of past suicidal behavior. Family history of suicide acts and comorbid borderline personality disorder predicted early attempts, while younger age, high hostility scores, number of past attempts, subjective pessimism as reflected in depression and suicidal ideation, and few reported reasons for living predicted suicidal acts during the whole period.
Conclusion:  In this data set of bipolar patients we noted an intriguing picture of two clusters of suicide attempts. Hostility was the strongest risk factor. These findings may have implications in both the identification of at-risk patients and the timing of clinical interventions including aggressive pharmacotherapeutic prophylaxis to prevent relapse or recurrence of depressive symptomatology.     

Longitudinal relationship between incisal tooth wear and periodontal condition

The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship between the longitudinal development of incisal tooth wear and periodontal conditions in 51 persons. Stone casts obtained at the ages of 15 and 27 yr were used to assess incisal wear according to a graded scale, the Incisal wear Index (Iwl). The wear increase after 12 yr, ΔIwI, was related to the various health index scores at the age of 15 yr, including the Plaque Index (PII) and Gingival Index (GI) systems. The chi-square tests showed a statistically significant association between AIwI and periodontal condition in 15-yr-olds. Thus, relatively low P1I and GI values were accompanied by relatively high AIwI values. It was concluded that in 15-yr-olds, P1I and GI levels are clinical predictors of future wear (ΔIwI) of maxillary and mandibular central incisors. Pocket depth (PD) was a less valuable clinical predictor of such wear.     

Prediction of severe postoperative complications in patients admitted to neuroanaesthesia

The purpose of this study was to identify factors which will predict the risk of severe postoperative complications in individual patients in a neurosurgical unit. Eleven risk factors were investigated in 363 neurosurgical patients, of whom 40 (11%) developed postoperative complications requiring mechanical ventilation for more than 24 h in an intensive care unit, 16 were found to be severely disabled or in a vegetative state at follow-up 1 month after admission, and 28 patients died. By applying stepwise, logistic regression analysis to the patient's data, we were able to select two significant risk variables, i.e. the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) 8 or less preoperatively and emergency anaesthesia. The presence of GCS 8 or less on the consciousness scale was associated with postoperative complications in approximately 40% of the cases. Emergency patients with severe neurological damage had the greatest risk of postoperative complications (93%). Fatal outcome for patients with postoperative complications was seen in 40% of the cases.     

Short utterance recognition using a network with minimum training

A feedforward network is used to recognize short, digitized, isolated utterances. A high, multispeaker recognition rate is achieved with a small vocabulary with a single training utterance. This approach makes use of the pattern recognition property of the network architecture to classify different temporal patterns in the multidimensional feature space. The network recognizes the utterances without the need of segmentation, phoneme identification, or time alignment. We train the network with four words spoken by one single speaker. The network is then able to recognize 20 tokens spoken by 5 other speakers. We repeat the above training and testing procedure using a different speaker's utterances for training each time. The overall accuracy is 97.5%. We compare this approach to the traditional dynamic programming (DP) approach, and find that DP with slope constraints of 0 and 1 achieve 98.5% and 85% accuracies respectively. Finally we validate out statistics by training and testing the network of a four-word subset of the Texas Instruments (Tl) isolated word database. The accuracy with this vocabulary exceeds 96%. By doubling the size of the training set, the accuracy is raised to 98%. Using a suitable threshold, we are able to raise the accuracy of one network from 87% to 98.5%. Thresholding applied to all networks would then raise the overall accuracy to well over 99%.

This technique is especially promising because of the low overhead and computational requirements, which make it suitable for a low cost, portable, command recognition type of application.