Risk Factors for Chronic Opioid Use Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Evidence from New Zealand Population Data

BackgroundPatients awaiting total joint arthroplasty (TJA) have high rates of opioid use, and many continue to use opioid medications long term after surgery. The objective of this study is to estimate the risk factors associated with chronic opioid use after TJA in a comprehensive population-based cohort.MethodsAll patients undergoing TJA in the New Zealand public healthcare system were identified from Ministry of Health records. Dispensing of opioid medications up to 3 years postsurgery and potential risk factors, including demographic, socioeconomic, and surgery-related characteristics, pre-existing medical comorbidities, and use of other analgesic medications prior to surgery, were identified from linked population databases. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with chronic postoperative opioid use.ResultsThe strongest risk factor for chronic postoperative opioid use was preoperative opioid use. Other significant risk factors included perioperative opioid use, history of alcohol or drug abuse, younger age, female gender, knee arthroplasty, several comorbid health conditions, and preoperative use of some analgesic medications. Protective factors included higher education levels and preoperative use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Most risk factors had similar effects on chronic postoperative opioid use irrespective of the length of follow-up considered (1, 2, or 3 years).ConclusionThis study of a comprehensive nationwide population-based cohort of TJA patients with 3 years of follow-up identified several modifiable risk factors and other easily measured patient characteristics associated with higher risk of long-term postoperative opioid use.     

The development and validation of the Score for the Prediction of Postoperative Respiratory Complications (SPORC-2) to predict the requirement for early postoperative tracheal re-intubation: a hospital registry study

Postoperative pulmonary complications are associated with an increase in mortality, morbidity and healthcare utilisation. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality recommends risk assessment for postoperative respiratory complications in patients undergoing surgery. In this hospital registry study of adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery between 2005 and 2017 at two independent healthcare networks, a prediction instrument for early postoperative tracheal re-intubation was developed and externally validated. This was based on the development of the Score for Prediction Of Postoperative Respiratory Complications. For predictor selection, stepwise backward logistic regression and bootstrap resampling were applied. Development and validation cohorts were represented by 90,893 patients at Partners Healthcare and 67,046 patients at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, of whom 699 (0.8%) and 587 (0.9%) patients, respectively, had their tracheas re-intubated. In addition to five pre-operative predictors identified in the Score for Prediction Of Postoperative Respiratory Complications, the final model included seven additional intra-operative predictors: early post-tracheal intubation desaturation; prolonged duration of surgery; high fraction of inspired oxygen; high vasopressor dose; blood transfusion; the absence of volatile anaesthetic use; and the absence of lung-protective ventilation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the new score was significantly greater than that of the original Score for Prediction Of Postoperative Respiratory Complications (0.84 [95%CI 0.82–0.85] vs. 0.76 [95%CI 0.75–0.78], respectively; p < 0.001). This may allow clinicians to develop and implement strategies to decrease the risk of early postoperative tracheal re-intubation.     

Premature Ticagrelor Discontinuation in Secondary Prevention of Atherosclerotic CVD: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Ticagrelor is a cornerstone of modern antithrombotic therapy alongside aspirin in patients with acute coronary syndrome and after percutaneous coronary intervention. Adverse effects such as bleeding and dyspnea have been associated with premature ticagrelor discontinuation, which may limit any potential advantage of ticagrelor over clopidogrel. The randomized trials of ticagrelor captured adverse events, offering the opportunity to more precisely quantify these effects across studies. Therefore, a meta-analysis of 4 randomized clinical trials of ticagrelor conducted between January 2007 and June 2017 was performed to quantify the incidence and causes of premature ticagrelor discontinuation. Among 66,870 patients followed for a median 18 months, premature ticagrelor discontinuation was seen in 25%; bleeding was the most common cause of discontinuation followed by dyspnea. Versus the comparators, the relative risk of dyspnea-related discontinuation during follow-up was 6.4-fold higher, the relative risk of bleeding was 3.2-fold higher, and the relative risk of discontinuation due to any adverse event was 59% higher for patients receiving ticagrelor. Understanding these potential barriers to adherence to ticagrelor is crucial for informed patient-physician decision making and can inform future efforts to improve ticagrelor adherence. This review discusses the incidence, causes, and biological mechanisms of ticagrelor-related adverse effects and offers strategies to improve adherence to ticagrelor.     

新生儿重症监护病房中重症肺炎多种菌感染相关因素分析

目的分析新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)中重症肺炎新生儿多种菌感染危险因素。方法回顾分析2014年1月至2019年5月收入NICU的1 057例重症细菌肺炎新生儿的临床资料,分析其多种菌感染的危险因素。结果单因素分析显示,胎龄(37周)、出生体质量(2 500 g)、发病日龄(7 d)、羊水污染(Ⅱ、Ⅲ度)、感染类型(医院感染)、住院时间(≥14天)、机械通气、Apagar评分(7分)、胎膜早破、抗菌药物使用天数(≥10天)、更换抗菌药物(≥3种)、联合使用抗菌药物(≥3种)12个因素是NICU中重症肺炎新生儿多种菌感染的危险因素,差异有统计学意义(P均0.05)。多因素分析显示,更换抗菌药物(≥3种)、Apagar评分(7分)、感染类型(医院感染)、机械通气、羊水污染(Ⅱ、Ⅲ度)是NICU中重症肺炎新生儿多种菌感染的独立危险因素(P0.05)。结论临床应针对主要危险因素采取综合防控措施,减少NICU新生儿重症肺炎多种菌感染。     

稽留流产孕早期预测模型的构建与验证

目的构建稽留流产(missed abortion,MA)患者在孕早期流产危险因素列线图。方法纳入2017年2月至2019年10月因稽留流产于中国建筑第二工程局职工医院治疗的孕妇125例为研究组,随机纳入同时期正常孕妇126例为对照组,分析两组患者临床基本资料:年龄、环境因素、动物接触史、叶酸使用、文化程度、流产情况、疾病史、激素水平等。采用Logistic回归分析对孕早期发生稽留流产的危险因素进行分析,应用R软件建立孕早期稽留流产预测列线图,并进行验证。结果研究组孕妇年龄、睾酮(testosterone,T)水平高于对照组,而催乳素(prolactin,PRL)、雌二醇(estradiol,E2)、孕酮(progesterone,P)水平低于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);Logistic回归分析提示孕妇年龄(OR=1.809,P=0.003)、吸烟饮酒(OR=78.120、P=0.044)、职业暴露(OR=61.238,P=0.021)、T水平(OR=5.432,P=0.001)是孕早期发生MA的危险因素。PRL(OR=0.376,P=0.003)、E2(OR=0.258,P=0.016)、P(OR=0.396,P=0.005)是孕早期发生MA的保护因素。预测孕早期MA发生的相关危险因素的C-index为0.912(95%CI:0.874-0.943)。结论列线图中孕妇年龄、环境因素、激素水平能较准确的预测孕早期发生MA的风险。     

Japanese Versus Non-Japanese Patients with Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke: Subanalysis of TIA registry.org

BackgroundTIAregistry.org is an international cohort of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke within 7 days before enrollment in the registry. Main analyses of 1-year follow-up data have been reported.⁵ We conducted subanalysis on the baseline and 1-year follow-up data of Japanese patients.MethodsThe patients were classified into 2 groups based on Japanese ethnicity, Japanese (345) and non-Japanese (3238), and their baseline data and 1-year event rates were compared. We also determined risk factors and predictors of 1-year stroke.ResultsCurrent smoking, regular alcohol drinking, intracranial arterial stenosis, and small vessel occlusion; and hypertension, dyslipidemia, coronary artery disease, and extracranial arterial stenosis were more and less common among Japanese patients, respectively. Stroke risk was higher and TIA risk was lower at 1-year follow-up among Japanese patients. The baseline risk factors for recurrent stroke were diabetes, alcohol drinking, and large artery atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of 1-year stroke risk were prior congestive heart failure and alcohol consumption.ConclusionsThe two populations of patients featured differences in risk factors, stroke subtypes, and outcome events. Predictors of recurrent stroke among Japanese patients included congestive heart failure and regular alcohol drinking. Strategies to attenuate residual risk of stroke aside from adherence to current guidelines should take our Japanese-patient specific findings into account.     

Risk communication in a patient decision aid for radiotherapy in breast cancer: How to deal with uncertainty?

Background and aimPatient decision aids for oncological treatment options, provide information on the effect on recurrence rates and/or survival benefit, and on side-effects and/or burden of different treatment options. However, often uncertainty exists around the probability estimates for recurrence/survival and side-effects which is too relevant to be ignored. Evidence is lacking on the best way to communicate these uncertainties. The aim of this study is to develop a method to incorporate uncertainties in a patient decision aid for breast cancer patients to support their decision on radiotherapy.MethodsFirstly, qualitative interviews were held with patients and health care professionals. Secondly, in the development phase, thinking aloud sessions were organized with four patients and 12 health care professionals, individual and group-wise.ResultsConsensus was reached on a pictograph illustrating the whole range of uncertainty for local recurrence risks, in combination with textual explanation that a more exact personalized risk would be given by their own physician. The pictograph consisted of 100 female icons in a 10 x 10 array. Icons with a stepwise gradient color indicated the uncertainty margin. The prevalence and severity of possible side-effects were explained using verbal labels.ConclusionsWe developed a novel way of visualizing uncertainties in recurrence rates in a patient decision aid. The effect of this way of communicating risk uncertainty is currently being tested in the BRASA study (NCT03375801).     

营养风险与腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的相关性研究

目的 探讨营养风险与腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的相关性。方法 采用回顾性研究，选取2012年1月至2018年12月四川大学华西医院血管外科新入院腹膜后肿瘤患者60例，采用营养风险筛查表评估患者营养风险，收集患者体质指数、围术期血红蛋白和白蛋白水平、住院天数、术后恶心呕吐发生情况、术后排气、排便时间和首次进食时间。采用单因素分析比较不同患者住院时间，采用多重线性逐步回归分析患者住院时间的影响因素。结果 纳入的60例腹膜后肿瘤患者中，40例患者（66.7%）术前存在营养风险，52例患者（86.7%）术后存在营养风险；单因素分析显示，患者术前、术后营养风险 （术前P<0.001，术后P=0.043）、术前白蛋白 （P=0.019）、术后血红蛋白 （P=0.019）、术后白蛋白（P=0.025） 水平以及术后恶心呕吐 （P=0.001） 均会影响患者的住院时间；患者住院时间与围术期营养风险筛查工具评分、术后首次进食时间、术后排气时间和排便时间具有相关性，且相关性强（r=0.759~0.770； P<0.01）；多因素分析显示术前营养风险是腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的重要预测因素（β=0.399）。结论 术前营养风险是腹膜后肿瘤患者住院时间的预测因子。     

Risk stratification in breast cancer screening: Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios for low-risk and high-risk women

In mammography screening programmes, women are screened according to a one-size-fits-all principle. Tailored screening, based on risk levels, may lead to a better balance of benefits and harms. With microsimulation modelling, we determined optimal mammography screening strategies for women at lower (relative risk [RR] 0.75) and higher (RR 1.8) than average risk of breast cancer, eligible for screening, using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of current uniform screening in the Netherlands (biennial [B] 50-74) as a threshold ICER. Strategies varied by interval (annual [A], biennial, triennial [T]) and age range. The number of life-years gained (LYG), breast cancer deaths averted, overdiagnosed cases, false-positive mammograms, ICERs and harm-benefit ratios were calculated. Optimal risk-based screening scenarios, below the threshold ICER of €8883/LYG, were T50-71 (€7840/LYG) for low-risk and B40-74 (€6062/LYG) for high-risk women. T50-71 screening in low-risk women resulted in a 33% reduction in false-positive findings, a similar reduction in costs and improved harm-benefit ratios compared to the current screening schedule. B40-74 in high-risk women led to an increase in screening benefit, compared to current B50-74 screening, but a relatively higher increase in false-positive findings. In conclusion, optimal screening consisted of a longer interval and lower stopping age than current uniform screening for low-risk women, and a lower starting age for high-risk women. Extending the interval for women at lower risk from biennial to triennial screening reduced harms and costs while maintaining most of the screening benefit.     

Patterns in metabolite profile are associated with risk of more aggressive prostate cancer: A prospective study of 3,057 matched case–control sets from EPIC

Metabolomics may reveal novel insights into the etiology of prostate cancer, for which few risk factors are established. We investigated the association between patterns in baseline plasma metabolite profile and subsequent prostate cancer risk, using data from 3,057 matched case–control sets from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We measured 119 metabolite concentrations in plasma samples, collected on average 9.4 years before diagnosis, by mass spectrometry (AbsoluteIDQ p180 Kit, Biocrates Life Sciences AG). Metabolite patterns were identified using treelet transform, a statistical method for identification of groups of correlated metabolites. Associations of metabolite patterns with prostate cancer risk (OR_1SD) were estimated by conditional logistic regression. Supplementary analyses were conducted for metabolite patterns derived using principal component analysis and for individual metabolites. Men with metabolite profiles characterized by higher concentrations of either phosphatidylcholines or hydroxysphingomyelins (OR_1SD = 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.66–0.89), acylcarnitines C18:1 and C18:2, glutamate, ornithine and taurine (OR_1SD = 0.72, 0.57–0.90), or lysophosphatidylcholines (OR_1SD = 0.81, 0.69–0.95) had lower risk of advanced stage prostate cancer at diagnosis, with no evidence of heterogeneity by follow-up time. Similar associations were observed for the two former patterns with aggressive disease risk (the more aggressive subset of advanced stage), while the latter pattern was inversely related to risk of prostate cancer death (OR_1SD = 0.77, 0.61–0.96). No associations were observed for prostate cancer overall or less aggressive tumor subtypes. In conclusion, metabolite patterns may be related to lower risk of more aggressive prostate tumors and prostate cancer death, and might be relevant to etiology of advanced stage prostate cancer.