SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

VATS解剖性肺段切除术与肺叶切除术治疗Ⅰa期NSCLC患者的手术情 况及对肺功能影响的比较

目的:探讨电视胸腔镜（VATS）解剖性肺段切除术与肺叶切除术治疗Ia 期非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）患者的手术情况及对患者肺功能的影响。方法:选取我院手术治疗的Ⅰa期NSCLC患者，收集时间2014年1月至2016年12月，根据术式不同分为两组，均采用VATS手术治疗，A组（54例）患者采用解剖性肺段切除术、B组（60例）采用肺叶切除术治疗，对比两组患者的手术效果及术后肺功能变化。结果:A组患者的手术时间、清扫淋巴结数目与B组比较差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）；A组患者的手术出血量、术后胸腔引流量、术后拔管时间、术后住院时间均显著的低于B组患者（P<0.05）；术前，A组和B组患者的FEV1%、FVC%、MVV%测定值差异无统计学意义（P>0.05），术后3个月复查，A组患者的FEV1%、FVC%、MVV%测定值均显著高于B组患者（P<0.05）；手术后，A组患者的并发症发生率（7.41%）低于B组患者（13.33%），但是差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。结论:VATS解剖性肺段切除术治疗Ⅰa期NSCLC患者具有手术创伤小、术后恢复快、对患者肺功能影响更小的优势。     

Atypical Abnormal Pulmonary Vein Drainage with Atrial Septal Defect: Surgical Treatment

Sinus venosus atrial septal defect (SV‐ASD) usually coexists with partial anomalous pulmonary vein connection (PAPVC). It is a difficult diagnosis in transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) due to eccentric position of defects. We present a rare case of atypical anatomical variation in PAPVC, which was never described before. Two right pulmonary veins drained into superior vena cava, which overrode SV‐ASD and interatrial septum, a third pulmonary vein into the right atrium. Complete diagnosis could not be set after TTE, nor transesophageal echocardiography, whereas angio‐CT was finally conclusive. This diagnostic approach allowed the surgical planning.     

Sharma's parachute sign a new laparoscopic sign in abdomino pelvic tuberculosis

AimsTo demonstrate a new laparoscopic sign “Sharma's Parachute sign” in abdominopelvic tuberculosis in women with infertility.MethodsA total of 104 women who were diagnosed to have abdominopelvic tuberculosis, on endometrial sampling or on laparoscopy were enrolled in this ongoing study on tuberculosis in infertility. A new laparoscopic “Sharma's parachute sign” was looked for in these cases on laparoscopy.ResultsThe mean age, pairty and duration of infertility was 27.6 years, 0.58 and 4.1 years respectively. Menstrual dysfuction were common especially hypomenorrhoea (34.61%), oligomenorrhoea (36.53%) along with constitutional symptoms and abdomino pelvic pain or lump. Diagnosis of abdominopelvic tuberculosis was made by identification of acid fast bacilli (AFB) on microscopy or culture of endometrial aspirate or peritoneal biopsy or positive gene Xpert or positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or histopathological demonstration of epithelioid granuloma on endometrial or peritoneal biopsy, various laparoscopic findings on pelvic and abdominal organs were tubercles and shaggy areas (white deposits, caseous nodules encysted ascites, abdominal and pelvic adhesions, tubal findings (hydrosalpinx, pyosalpinx, beaded or calcified tubes). A new “Sharma's parachute sign”in which ascending colon was totally adherent to anterior abdominal wall with its mesocolon looking like an open parachute with small caseous nodule was seen in 11 (10.5%) cases.ConclusionDiagnostic laparoscopy is an important investigation for abdominopelvic tuberculosis showing various adhesions including new parachute sign.     

Bronchial Artery Embolization in Pediatric Pulmonary Hemorrhage: A Single-Center Experience

PurposeTo explore the safety and effectiveness of bronchial artery (BA) embolization (BAE) in children with pulmonary hemorrhage.Materials and MethodsBetween February 2016 and February 2019, 41 patients (median age, 4 y; interquartile range, 2.3-8 y; median weight, 17.6 kg; interquartile range, 12.3–23.6 kg) underwent BAE. The indication of BAE included massive hemoptysis in 10 patients (24.4%), recurrent hemoptysis in 18 patients (43.9%), and refractory anemia in 13 patients (31.7%). The main etiology of pulmonary hemorrhage included pulmonary hemosiderosis (58.5%), congenital heart disease (17.1%), and infection (14.6%). A retrospective review was conducted of clinical outcomes of BAE.ResultsThere were 44 embolization sessions, with a total of 137 embolized vessels. Pulmonary hemorrhage was caused by BAs in 30 cases, nonbronchial systemic arteries plus BAs in 10, and nonbronchial systemic arteries in 1. Embolic particles were used in 30 cases (24 polyvinyl alcohol [PVA] and 6 microsphere), coils in 9 cases, and particles plus coils in 5 cases (4 PVA and 1 microsphere). Technical success (ability to embolize abnormal vessel) was achieved in 97.6% of patients (40 of 41), and clinical success (complete or partial resolution of hemoptysis within 30 days of embolization) was achieved in 90.2% (37 of 41). There was 1 procedure-related complication (2.4%) of cerebral infarction and 1 death from multiple-organ dysfunction (2.4%). Bleeding-free survival rates at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months were 92.5%, 83.9%, 83.9%, and 70.8%, respectively.ConclusionsBAE is a safe and effective procedure in children with pulmonary hemorrhage.     

Fractal dimension in CT low attenuation areas is predictive of long-term oxygen therapy initiation in COPD patients: Results from two observational cohort studies

BackgroundSome chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients develop hypoxemia with disease progression, with some even requiring long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT). Lung function, especially diffusing capacity, and the annual decline in PaO₂, are reported to be predictive factors of chronic respiratory failure. However, the association between lung morphometry evaluated using computed tomography (CT) images and LTOT initiation is unknown.MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated the relationship between clinical indices, including pulmonary function, body mass index (BMI), and CT parameters, at baseline and LTOT initiation in two prospective COPD cohorts. In the Nara Medical University cohort (n = 76), the low attenuation area (LAA) and its fractal dimension (fractal D) were adapted as the indices for parenchymal destruction in CT images. The association between these CT measurements and LTOT initiation was replicated in the Kyoto University cohort (n = 130).ResultsIn the Nara Medical University cohort, lower BMI (hazard ratio [HR]:0.70, p = 0.006), lower % diffusing capacity (%DLCO) (HR: 0.92, p = 0.006), lower %DLCO/VA (HR, 0.90, p = 0.008), higher RV/TLC (HR, 1.26, p = 0.012), higher LAA% (HR: 1.18, p = 0.001), and lower fractal D (HR: 3.27 × 10^?8, p < 0.001) were associated with LTOT initiation. Multivariate analysis in the Kyoto University cohort confirmed that lower %DLCO and lower fractal D were independently associated with LTOT initiation, whereas LAA% was not.ConclusionFractal D, which is the index for morphometric complexity of LAA in CT analysis, is predictive of LTOT initiation in COPD patients.     

莫西沙星联合信必可都保对AECOPD疗效及免疫炎症反应的影响

目的探讨维生素D(VitD)联合鱼油对糖尿病前期(PDM)患者糖脂代谢、胰岛β细胞功能的影响。 方法选取PDM患者132例,随机均分为联合组(VitD+鱼油)、VitD组(VitD)和对照组(不干预)。比较各组糖脂代谢、胰岛β细胞功能、炎症反应、血管内皮功能等指标。 结果与干预前比较,干预后联合组甘油三酯降低,白细胞介素-10增高(P＜0.05),联合组和VitD组低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、肿瘤坏死因子-α、胰岛素抵抗指数、前列腺素E2、瘦素、抵抗素降低(P＜0.05),空腹胰岛素、胰岛β细胞功能指数、脂联素增高(P＜0.05),且联合组改善更为明显(P＜0.05)。 结论维生素D联合鱼油治疗PDM患者可改善其脂代谢和胰岛功能相关指标,具有一定临床应用价值。